DCF Studio

    SWK · NYQ · Industrials

    Stanley Black & Decker, Inc.

    Also onShortfallConsensus DriftCrosscheck

    Implied value per share

    USD 46.82

    Market price

    USD 106.71

    Implied upside

    -56.1%

    10-year forecast · Perpetuity growth terminal value · Mid-year discounting · Base case · Price 2026-11-02 · Accounts to 2025-12-31

    Value Per Share

    Perpetuity growth
    USD 46.82-56.1%
    Exit multiple
    USD 68.95-35.4%
    Market price
    USD 106.71

    Same forecast, different terminal treatment. Percentages vs price.

    Forecast Cashflows

    Reporting currency (USD). Outflows negative.

    0bn1bn1bnFY26FY27FY28FY29FY30FY31FY32FY33FY34FY35
    Nominal FCFFDiscounted to todayUSD
    LineFY26FY27FY28FY29FY30FY31FY32FY33FY34FY35CAGR
    RevenueUSD 15.2bnUSD 15.3bnUSD 15.6bnUSD 15.8bnUSD 16.1bnUSD 16.4bnUSD 16.7bnUSD 17.1bnUSD 17.5bnUSD 17.9bn+1.9%
    EBITUSD 964.8mUSD 976.4mUSD 989.8mUSD 1.0bnUSD 1.0bnUSD 1.0bnUSD 1.1bnUSD 1.1bnUSD 1.1bnUSD 1.1bn+1.9%
    NOPATUSD 927.8mUSD 939.0mUSD 951.9mUSD 966.5mUSD 982.9mUSD 1.0bnUSD 1.0bnUSD 1.0bnUSD 1.1bnUSD 1.1bn+1.9%
    Add depreciation & amortisationUSD 552.0mUSD 558.7mUSD 566.3mUSD 575.0mUSD 584.7mUSD 595.6mUSD 607.6mUSD 620.8mUSD 635.3mUSD 651.2m+1.9%
    Less capital expenditureUSD -358.3mUSD -398.8mUSD -441.0mUSD -485.0mUSD -531.1mUSD -579.6mUSD -630.6mUSD -684.6mUSD -741.8mUSD -802.5m+9.4%
    Capex, % of revenue2.4%2.6%2.8%3.1%3.3%3.5%3.8%4.0%4.2%4.5%-
    Less increase in working capitalUSD -7.0mUSD -38.5mUSD -44.2mUSD -50.1mUSD -56.2mUSD -62.6mUSD -69.3mUSD -76.3mUSD -83.8mUSD -91.7m+33.0%
    Free cashflow to firmUSD 1.1bnUSD 1.1bnUSD 1.0bnUSD 1.0bnUSD 980.3mUSD 954.5mUSD 928.9mUSD 903.4mUSD 877.7mUSD 851.7m-2.9%
    Discount factor0.95700.87660.80290.73540.67360.61690.56510.51760.47410.4342-
    Present valueUSD 1.1bnUSD 929.5mUSD 829.4mUSD 740.1mUSD 660.3mUSD 588.9mUSD 524.9mUSD 467.6mUSD 416.1mUSD 369.8m-
    Present Value Of The ForecastUSD 6.6bn

    Discount Rate

    Source shown per component. All overridable above.

    Risk-free rate4.89%US 10-year Treasury (^TNX), 2026-11-02
    Equity risk premium4.23%Damodaran, January 2026
    Beta1.106Reported 1.158, pulled toward 1.0 (Blume)
    Cost of equity9.57%Risk-free + beta x equity risk premium
    Cost of debt8.45%Interest expense / average total debt
    Market capitalisationUSD 16.1bn72.9% of capital
    Total debtUSD 6.0bn27.1% of capital, book value as a proxy
    Tax rate3.8%Effective, capped at statutory
    WACC9.18%E/V x Re + D/V x Rd x (1 - t)

    Terminal Value

    Perpetuity growth is intrinsic. The exit multiple defaults to the company's current EV/EBITDA, so it answers a different question - what the shares are worth if today's rating holds and EBITDA grows as forecast.

    Perpetuity growth at 2.50%

    Value per shareUSD 46.82

    49% of EV

    Forecast FCFF, final year
    USD 851.7m
    Capex at depreciation, working capital in reinvestment
    USD 1.3bn
    Less reinvestment at g/ROIC (27.2% of NOPAT)
    USD -350.3m
    Capitalised
    USD 935.7m
    ROIC (WACC floor)
    9.2%
    Terminal value, undiscounted
    USD 14.4bn
    Terminal value, discounted
    USD 6.2bn
    Enterprise value
    USD 12.8bn
    Less net debt
    USD 5.7bn
    Equity value
    USD 7.1bn

    Exit at 12.3x EBITDA

    Value per shareUSD 68.95

    59% of EV

    Terminal value, undiscounted
    USD 22.1bn
    Terminal value, discounted
    USD 9.6bn
    Enterprise value
    USD 16.2bn
    Less net debt
    USD 5.7bn
    Equity value
    USD 10.5bn

    Spread between methods: 38%.

    Sensitivity

    Value per share (USD) by discount rate and long-run growth.

    Long-run growth
    Discount rate1.50%2.00%2.50%3.00%3.50%
    7.18%72.7671.3369.8968.4567.02
    8.18%59.3258.1356.9455.7454.55
    9.18%48.8447.8346.8245.8244.81
    10.18%40.4439.5838.7137.8536.99
    11.18%33.5532.8132.0731.3230.58

    Outlined: this model. Green text: above today's price of 106.71. Shading: distance from this model's own value.

    Priced In

    What each input would have to be to justify the current price, one at a time.

    InputActualModelImplied
    Revenue growth, a year-3.7%1.7%10.0%
    EBIT margin8.3%6.4%11.6%
    Discount rate-9.2%5.7%
    Download as Excel

    Live formulas, not pasted numbers - edit a driver and the workbook reprices.

    Yahoo Finance and RBA data. General information, not advice. Methodology.