DCF Studio

    SWKS · NMS · Technology

    Skyworks Solutions, Inc.

    Also onShortfallConsensus DriftCrosscheck

    Implied value per share

    USD 291.31

    Market price

    USD 85.17

    Implied upside

    +242.0%

    10-year forecast · Perpetuity growth terminal value · Mid-year discounting · Base case · Price 2026-11-02 · Accounts to 2025-09-30

    Current EV/EBITDA of 20.1x sits outside a defensible 3-20x band, so the exit multiple is capped at 20.0x. A multiple that far out usually means EBITDA is the wrong denominator for this business.

    Value Per Share

    Perpetuity growth
    USD 291.31+242.0%
    Exit multiple
    USD 608.71+614.7%
    Market price
    USD 85.17

    Same forecast, different terminal treatment. Percentages vs price.

    Forecast Cashflows

    Reporting currency (USD). Outflows negative.

    0bn3bn5bnFY26FY27FY28FY29FY30FY31FY32FY33FY34FY35
    Nominal FCFFDiscounted to todayUSD
    LineFY26FY27FY28FY29FY30FY31FY32FY33FY34FY35CAGR
    RevenueUSD 3.9bnUSD 5.9bnUSD 8.5bnUSD 11.8bnUSD 15.6bnUSD 19.7bnUSD 23.7bnUSD 27.1bnUSD 29.3bnUSD 30.1bn+25.3%
    EBITUSD 831.3mUSD 1.2bnUSD 1.8bnUSD 2.5bnUSD 3.3bnUSD 4.1bnUSD 5.0bnUSD 5.7bnUSD 6.2bnUSD 6.3bn+25.3%
    NOPATUSD 755.2mUSD 1.1bnUSD 1.6bnUSD 2.3bnUSD 3.0bnUSD 3.8bnUSD 4.5bnUSD 5.2bnUSD 5.6bnUSD 5.8bn+25.3%
    Add depreciation & amortisationUSD 469.5mUSD 704.2mUSD 1.0bnUSD 1.4bnUSD 1.9bnUSD 2.3bnUSD 2.8bnUSD 3.2bnUSD 3.5bnUSD 3.6bn+25.3%
    Less capital expenditureUSD -238.1mUSD -396.5mUSD -627.9mUSD -945.7mUSD -1.4bnUSD -1.8bnUSD -2.4bnUSD -2.9bnUSD -3.3bnUSD -3.6bn+35.3%
    Capex, % of revenue6.0%6.7%7.4%8.0%8.7%9.4%10.0%10.7%11.4%12.0%-
    Less increase in working capitalUSD 44.8mUSD -635.3mUSD -839.7mUSD -1.0bnUSD -1.2bnUSD -1.3bnUSD -1.3bnUSD -1.1bnUSD -734.8mUSD -236.1m-
    Free cashflow to firmUSD 1.0bnUSD 805.3mUSD 1.2bnUSD 1.7bnUSD 2.3bnUSD 2.9bnUSD 3.7bnUSD 4.4bnUSD 5.0bnUSD 5.5bn+20.4%
    Discount factor0.95260.86450.78450.71190.64600.58620.53200.48270.43810.3975-
    Present valueUSD 982.5mUSD 696.1mUSD 924.7mUSD 1.2bnUSD 1.5bnUSD 1.7bnUSD 2.0bnUSD 2.1bnUSD 2.2bnUSD 2.2bn-
    Present Value Of The ForecastUSD 15.4bn

    Discount Rate

    Source shown per component. All overridable above.

    Risk-free rate4.89%US 10-year Treasury (^TNX), 2026-11-02
    Equity risk premium4.23%Damodaran, January 2026
    Beta1.330Reported 1.493, pulled toward 1.0 (Blume)
    Cost of equity10.52%Risk-free + beta x equity risk premium
    Cost of debt5.29%Risk-free + 40bp, the spread for a AAA rating at 19.3x interest cover. Book interest / average debt was lower, at 2.3%.
    Market capitalisationUSD 20.0bn94.3% of capital
    Total debtUSD 1.2bn5.7% of capital, book value as a proxy
    Tax rate9.2%Effective, capped at statutory
    WACC10.20%E/V x Re + D/V x Rd x (1 - t)

    Terminal Value

    Perpetuity growth is intrinsic. The exit multiple defaults to the company's current EV/EBITDA, so it answers a different question - what the shares are worth if today's rating holds and EBITDA grows as forecast.

    Perpetuity growth at 2.50%

    Value per shareUSD 291.31

    66% of EV

    Forecast FCFF, final year
    USD 5.5bn
    Capex at depreciation, working capital in reinvestment
    USD 7.1bn
    Less reinvestment at g/ROIC (20.9% of NOPAT)
    USD -1.5bn
    Capitalised
    USD 5.6bn
    ROIC (reported)
    12.0%
    Terminal value, undiscounted
    USD 74.4bn
    Terminal value, discounted
    USD 29.6bn
    Enterprise value
    USD 45.0bn
    Less net debt
    USD -171.1m
    Equity value
    USD 45.2bn

    Exit at 20.0x EBITDA

    Value per shareUSD 608.71

    84% of EV

    Terminal value, undiscounted
    USD 198.2bn
    Terminal value, discounted
    USD 78.8bn
    Enterprise value
    USD 94.2bn
    Less net debt
    USD -171.1m
    Equity value
    USD 94.4bn

    Spread between methods: 71%.

    Sensitivity

    Value per share (USD) by discount rate and long-run growth.

    Long-run growth
    Discount rate1.50%2.00%2.50%3.00%3.50%
    8.20%406.05411.65418.82427.99439.80
    9.20%341.61343.07345.20348.16352.19
    10.20%292.65291.85291.31291.11291.30
    11.20%254.33252.29250.32248.45246.68
    12.20%224.12221.60219.08216.56214.03

    Outlined: this model. Green text: above today's price of 85.17. Shading: distance from this model's own value.

    Priced In

    What each input would have to be to justify the current price, one at a time.

    InputActualModelImplied
    Revenue growth, a year-9.3%22.1%5.6%
    EBIT margin28.4%21.1%4.3%
    Discount rate-10.2%23.4%
    Download as Excel

    Live formulas, not pasted numbers - edit a driver and the workbook reprices.

    Yahoo Finance and RBA data. General information, not advice. Methodology.