DCF Studio

    SY1.DE · GER · Basic Materials

    Symrise AG

    Also onConsensus Drift

    Implied value per share

    EUR 56.62

    Market price

    EUR 89.02

    Implied upside

    -36.4%

    5-year forecast · Perpetuity growth terminal value · Mid-year discounting · Base case

    NoteRisk-free rate is an assumption: EUR assumption - no free live source available for this market.

    Value Per Share

    Perpetuity growth
    EUR 56.62-36.4%
    Exit multiple
    EUR 90.15+1.3%
    Market price
    EUR 89.02

    Same forecast, different terminal treatment. Percentages vs price.

    Forecast Cashflows

    Reporting currency (EUR). Outflows negative.

    0m276m552mFY26FY27FY28FY29FY30
    Nominal FCFFDiscounted to todayEUR
    LineFY26FY27FY28FY29FY30CAGR
    RevenueEUR 5.0bnEUR 5.1bnEUR 5.3bnEUR 5.4bnEUR 5.5bn+2.2%
    EBITEUR 635.0mEUR 649.0mEUR 663.2mEUR 677.8mEUR 692.6m+2.2%
    NOPATEUR 449.7mEUR 459.5mEUR 469.6mEUR 479.9mEUR 490.5m+2.2%
    Add depreciation & amortisationEUR 313.6mEUR 320.5mEUR 327.5mEUR 334.7mEUR 342.0m+2.2%
    Less capital expenditureEUR -255.3mEUR -260.9mEUR -266.7mEUR -272.5mEUR -278.5m+2.2%
    Less increase in working capitalEUR -1.7mEUR -1.7mEUR -1.8mEUR -1.8mEUR -1.9m+2.2%
    Free cashflow to firmEUR 506.2mEUR 517.3mEUR 528.7mEUR 540.3mEUR 552.1m+2.2%
    Discount factor0.97090.91520.86280.81330.7667-
    Present valueEUR 491.5mEUR 473.5mEUR 456.1mEUR 439.4mEUR 423.3m-3.7%
    Present Value Of The ForecastEUR 2.3bn

    Discount Rate

    Source shown per component. All overridable above.

    Risk-free rate2.60%EUR assumption - no free live source available for this market (assumption)
    Equity risk premium6.00%Market assumption
    Beta0.721Reported 0.584, pulled toward 1.0 (Blume)
    Cost of equity6.93%Risk-free + beta x equity risk premium
    Cost of debt3.05%Interest expense / average total debt
    Market capitalisationEUR 12.2bn82.3% of capital
    Total debtEUR 2.6bn17.7% of capital, book value as a proxy
    Tax rate29.2%Effective, capped at statutory
    WACC6.08%E/V x Re + D/V x Rd x (1 - t)

    Terminal Value

    Perpetuity growth is intrinsic. The exit multiple defaults to the company's current EV/EBITDA, so it answers a different question - what the shares are worth if today's rating holds and EBITDA grows as forecast.

    Perpetuity growth at 2.50%

    Value per shareEUR 56.62

    76% of EV

    Forecast FCFF, final year
    EUR 552.1m
    Capex at depreciation, working capital in reinvestment
    EUR 517.2m
    Less reinvestment at g/ROIC (36.1% of NOPAT)
    EUR -186.6m
    Capitalised
    EUR 330.5m
    ROIC (reported)
    6.9%
    Terminal value, undiscounted
    EUR 9.5bn
    Terminal value, discounted
    EUR 7.3bn
    Enterprise value
    EUR 9.5bn
    Less net debt
    EUR 1.6bn
    Equity value
    EUR 7.9bn

    Exit at 15.0x EBITDA

    Value per shareEUR 90.15

    84% of EV

    Terminal value, undiscounted
    EUR 15.6bn
    Terminal value, discounted
    EUR 11.9bn
    Enterprise value
    EUR 14.2bn
    Less net debt
    EUR 1.6bn
    Equity value
    EUR 12.6bn

    Spread between methods: 46%.

    Sensitivity

    Value per share (EUR) by discount rate and long-run growth.

    Long-run growth
    Discount rate1.50%2.00%2.50%3.00%3.50%
    4.08%100.69113.19133.46172.25277.25
    5.08%70.8474.8080.2288.14100.92
    6.08%53.9755.1656.6258.4961.00
    7.08%43.3543.5443.7443.9344.12
    8.08%36.7836.9437.1037.2637.42

    Outlined: this model. Green text: above today's price of 89.02. Shading: distance from this model's own value.

    Priced In

    What each input would have to be to justify the current price, one at a time.

    InputModelImpliedGap
    Revenue growth, every year2.2%11.4%+9.2pp
    EBIT margin12.6%19.0%+6.4pp
    Discount rate6.1%4.8%-1.2pp
    Download as Excel

    Live formulas, not pasted numbers - edit a driver and the workbook reprices.

    Yahoo Finance and RBA data. General information, not advice. Methodology.