DCF Studio

    SYY · NYQ · Consumer Defensive

    Sysco Corporation

    Also onShortfallConsensus DriftCrosscheck

    Implied value per share

    USD 84.54

    Market price

    USD 81.74

    Implied upside

    +3.4%

    10-year forecast · Perpetuity growth terminal value · Mid-year discounting · Base case · Price 2026-11-02 · Accounts to 2026-06-30

    Value Per Share

    Perpetuity growth
    USD 84.54+3.4%
    Exit multiple
    USD 93.24+14.1%
    Market price
    USD 81.74

    Same forecast, different terminal treatment. Percentages vs price.

    Forecast Cashflows

    Reporting currency (USD). Outflows negative.

    0bn1bn3bnFY27FY28FY29FY30FY31FY32FY33FY34FY35FY36
    Nominal FCFFDiscounted to todayUSD
    LineFY27FY28FY29FY30FY31FY32FY33FY34FY35FY36CAGR
    RevenueUSD 90.0bnUSD 92.0bnUSD 94.1bnUSD 96.2bnUSD 98.5bnUSD 100.8bnUSD 103.2bnUSD 105.7bnUSD 108.3bnUSD 111.0bn+2.4%
    EBITUSD 3.5bnUSD 3.6bnUSD 3.6bnUSD 3.7bnUSD 3.8bnUSD 3.9bnUSD 4.0bnUSD 4.1bnUSD 4.2bnUSD 4.3bn+2.4%
    NOPATUSD 2.8bnUSD 2.8bnUSD 2.9bnUSD 2.9bnUSD 3.0bnUSD 3.1bnUSD 3.2bnUSD 3.2bnUSD 3.3bnUSD 3.4bn+2.4%
    Add depreciation & amortisationUSD 1.1bnUSD 1.2bnUSD 1.2bnUSD 1.2bnUSD 1.3bnUSD 1.3bnUSD 1.3bnUSD 1.3bnUSD 1.4bnUSD 1.4bn+2.4%
    Less capital expenditureUSD -907.8mUSD -1.0bnUSD -1.1bnUSD -1.2bnUSD -1.3bnUSD -1.4bnUSD -1.5bnUSD -1.7bnUSD -1.8bnUSD -1.9bn+8.6%
    Capex, % of revenue1.0%1.1%1.2%1.2%1.3%1.4%1.5%1.6%1.6%1.7%-
    Less increase in working capitalUSD -262.7mUSD -97.0mUSD -100.7mUSD -104.5mUSD -108.5mUSD -112.7mUSD -117.0mUSD -121.5mUSD -126.2mUSD -131.0m-7.4%
    Free cashflow to firmUSD 2.7bnUSD 2.9bnUSD 2.9bnUSD 2.9bnUSD 2.9bnUSD 2.8bnUSD 2.8bnUSD 2.8bnUSD 2.8bnUSD 2.8bn+0.2%
    Discount factor0.96610.90180.84170.78560.73330.68450.63890.59630.55660.5195-
    Present valueUSD 2.6bnUSD 2.6bnUSD 2.4bnUSD 2.3bnUSD 2.1bnUSD 1.9bnUSD 1.8bnUSD 1.7bnUSD 1.6bnUSD 1.4bn-
    Present Value Of The ForecastUSD 20.4bn

    Discount Rate

    Source shown per component. All overridable above.

    Risk-free rate4.89%US 10-year Treasury (^TNX), 2026-11-02
    Equity risk premium4.23%Damodaran, January 2026
    Beta0.763Reported 0.647, pulled toward 1.0 (Blume)
    Cost of equity8.12%Risk-free + beta x equity risk premium
    Cost of debt5.67%Risk-free + 78bp, the spread for a A rating at 4.3x interest cover. Book interest / average debt was lower, at 4.9%.
    Market capitalisationUSD 40.2bn72.9% of capital
    Total debtUSD 15.0bn27.1% of capital, book value as a proxy
    Tax rate21.0%Effective, capped at statutory
    WACC7.14%E/V x Re + D/V x Rd x (1 - t)

    Terminal Value

    Perpetuity growth is intrinsic. The exit multiple defaults to the company's current EV/EBITDA, so it answers a different question - what the shares are worth if today's rating holds and EBITDA grows as forecast.

    Perpetuity growth at 2.50%

    Value per shareUSD 84.54

    62% of EV

    Forecast FCFF, final year
    USD 2.8bn
    Capex at depreciation, working capital in reinvestment
    USD 3.4bn
    Less reinvestment at g/ROIC (14.5% of NOPAT)
    USD -494.2m
    Capitalised
    USD 2.9bn
    ROIC (reported)
    17.2%
    Terminal value, undiscounted
    USD 64.2bn
    Terminal value, discounted
    USD 33.4bn
    Enterprise value
    USD 53.8bn
    Less net debt
    USD 13.2bn
    Equity value
    USD 40.6bn

    Exit at 12.6x EBITDA

    Value per shareUSD 93.24

    65% of EV

    Terminal value, undiscounted
    USD 72.3bn
    Terminal value, discounted
    USD 37.5bn
    Enterprise value
    USD 58.0bn
    Less net debt
    USD 13.2bn
    Equity value
    USD 44.8bn

    Spread between methods: 10%.

    Sensitivity

    Value per share (USD) by discount rate and long-run growth.

    Long-run growth
    Discount rate1.50%2.00%2.50%3.00%3.50%
    5.14%132.23145.88164.92193.14238.95
    6.14%98.49105.11113.70125.19141.25
    7.14%76.7280.2084.5490.0497.20
    8.14%61.5163.3965.6968.5372.08
    9.14%50.2851.2952.5053.9955.83

    Outlined: this model. Green text: above today's price of 81.74. Shading: distance from this model's own value.

    Priced In

    What each input would have to be to justify the current price, one at a time.

    InputActualModelImplied
    Revenue growth, a year3.5%2.8%2.4%
    EBIT margin4.1%3.9%3.8%
    Discount rate-7.1%7.3%
    Download as Excel

    Live formulas, not pasted numbers - edit a driver and the workbook reprices.

    Yahoo Finance and RBA data. General information, not advice. Methodology.