DCF Studio

    TAP · NYQ · Consumer Defensive

    Molson Coors Beverage Company

    Also onConsensus Drift

    Implied value per share

    USD 91.43

    Market price

    USD 43.23

    Implied upside

    +111.5%

    10-year forecast · Perpetuity growth terminal value · Mid-year discounting · Base case · Price 2026-11-02 · Accounts to 2025-12-31

    Value Per Share

    Perpetuity growth
    USD 91.43+111.5%
    Exit multiple
    USD 54.28+25.6%
    Market price
    USD 43.23

    Same forecast, different terminal treatment. Percentages vs price.

    Forecast Cashflows

    Reporting currency (USD). Outflows negative.

    0bn1bn1bnFY26FY27FY28FY29FY30FY31FY32FY33FY34FY35
    Nominal FCFFDiscounted to todayUSD
    LineFY26FY27FY28FY29FY30FY31FY32FY33FY34FY35CAGR
    RevenueUSD 11.0bnUSD 11.0bnUSD 11.1bnUSD 11.2bnUSD 11.3bnUSD 11.4bnUSD 11.6bnUSD 11.8bnUSD 12.1bnUSD 12.4bn+1.2%
    EBITUSD 1.5bnUSD 1.5bnUSD 1.5bnUSD 1.5bnUSD 1.5bnUSD 1.5bnUSD 1.5bnUSD 1.6bnUSD 1.6bnUSD 1.7bn+1.2%
    NOPATUSD 1.2bnUSD 1.2bnUSD 1.2bnUSD 1.2bnUSD 1.2bnUSD 1.2bnUSD 1.2bnUSD 1.2bnUSD 1.3bnUSD 1.3bn+1.2%
    Add depreciation & amortisationUSD 702.8mUSD 702.8mUSD 705.0mUSD 709.5mUSD 716.2mUSD 725.1mUSD 736.5mUSD 750.3mUSD 766.7mUSD 785.9m+1.2%
    Less capital expenditureUSD -667.0mUSD -700.8mUSD -737.0mUSD -775.7mUSD -817.5mUSD -862.6mUSD -911.5mUSD -964.7mUSD -1.0bnUSD -1.1bn+5.6%
    Capex, % of revenue6.0%6.3%6.6%7.0%7.3%7.6%7.9%8.2%8.5%8.8%-
    Less increase in working capitalUSD -3.5mUSD 22.3kUSD 1.3mUSD 2.6mUSD 4.0mUSD 5.3mUSD 6.7mUSD 8.2mUSD 9.7mUSD 11.3m-
    Free cashflow to firmUSD 1.2bnUSD 1.2bnUSD 1.1bnUSD 1.1bnUSD 1.1bnUSD 1.1bnUSD 1.1bnUSD 1.0bnUSD 1.0bnUSD 1.0bn-1.8%
    Discount factor0.97070.91460.86180.81200.76510.72090.67930.64010.60310.5683-
    Present valueUSD 1.2bnUSD 1.1bnUSD 983.3mUSD 905.7mUSD 836.0mUSD 773.4mUSD 717.0mUSD 666.0mUSD 619.9mUSD 578.0m-
    Present Value Of The ForecastUSD 8.3bn

    Discount Rate

    Source shown per component. All overridable above.

    Risk-free rate4.89%US 10-year Treasury (^TNX), 2026-11-02
    Equity risk premium4.23%Damodaran, January 2026
    Beta0.633Reported 0.452, pulled toward 1.0 (Blume)
    Cost of equity7.57%Risk-free + beta x equity risk premium
    Cost of debt5.44%Risk-free + 55bp, the spread for a AA rating at 6.6x interest cover. Book interest / average debt was lower, at 4.0%.
    Market capitalisationUSD 8.1bn55.9% of capital
    Total debtUSD 6.4bn44.1% of capital, book value as a proxy
    Tax rate21.0%Effective, capped at statutory
    WACC6.13%E/V x Re + D/V x Rd x (1 - t)

    Terminal Value

    Perpetuity growth is intrinsic. The exit multiple defaults to the company's current EV/EBITDA, so it answers a different question - what the shares are worth if today's rating holds and EBITDA grows as forecast.

    Perpetuity growth at 2.50%

    Value per shareUSD 91.43

    65% of EV

    Forecast FCFF, final year
    USD 1.0bn
    Capex at depreciation, working capital in reinvestment
    USD 1.5bn
    Less reinvestment at g/ROIC (35.9% of NOPAT)
    USD -536.0m
    Capitalised
    USD 956.2m
    ROIC (reported)
    7.0%
    Terminal value, undiscounted
    USD 27.0bn
    Terminal value, discounted
    USD 15.3bn
    Enterprise value
    USD 23.7bn
    Less net debt
    USD 5.5bn
    Equity value
    USD 18.2bn

    Exit at 5.7x EBITDA

    Value per shareUSD 54.28

    49% of EV

    Terminal value, undiscounted
    USD 14.0bn
    Terminal value, discounted
    USD 7.9bn
    Enterprise value
    USD 16.3bn
    Less net debt
    USD 5.5bn
    Equity value
    USD 10.8bn

    Spread between methods: 51%.

    Sensitivity

    Value per share (USD) by discount rate and long-run growth.

    Long-run growth
    Discount rate1.50%2.00%2.50%3.00%3.50%
    4.13%176.42194.14223.70280.82431.15
    5.13%122.00126.18132.52142.54159.61
    6.13%91.0391.0391.4392.4094.27
    7.13%71.4970.1968.9067.6066.30
    8.13%59.3658.2857.2056.1355.05

    Outlined: this model. Green text: above today's price of 43.23. Shading: distance from this model's own value.

    Priced In

    What each input would have to be to justify the current price, one at a time.

    InputActualModelImplied
    Revenue growth, a year1.4%1.0%-4.7%
    EBIT margin15.6%13.4%7.3%
    Discount rate-6.1%9.8%
    Download as Excel

    Live formulas, not pasted numbers - edit a driver and the workbook reprices.

    Yahoo Finance and RBA data. General information, not advice. Methodology.