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    Teledyne Technologies Incorporated

    Also onShortfallConsensus DriftCrosscheck

    Implied value per share

    USD 280.01

    Market price

    USD 659.91

    Implied upside

    -57.6%

    10-year forecast · Perpetuity growth terminal value · Mid-year discounting · Base case · Price 2026-11-02 · Accounts to 2025-12-31

    AdjustedReported capital expenditure averages 1.78% of revenue against depreciation and amortisation of 5.67%. A business cannot depreciate more than it invests indefinitely. Capex has been set to 5.67% of revenue so the forecast is not handed free growth. The accounts do not separate depreciation from amortisation, so the combined charge is used - if a large part of it is amortisation of an acquisition, the reported capex is probably right and this substitution is not. Override it if the reported figure is right.

    Current EV/EBITDA of 22.1x sits outside a defensible 3-20x band, so the exit multiple is capped at 20.0x. A multiple that far out usually means EBITDA is the wrong denominator for this business.

    Value Per Share

    Perpetuity growth
    USD 280.01-57.6%
    Exit multiple
    USD 548.05-17.0%
    Market price
    USD 659.91

    Same forecast, different terminal treatment. Percentages vs price.

    Forecast Cashflows

    Reporting currency (USD). Outflows negative.

    0bn1bn1bnFY26FY27FY28FY29FY30FY31FY32FY33FY34FY35
    Nominal FCFFDiscounted to todayUSD
    LineFY26FY27FY28FY29FY30FY31FY32FY33FY34FY35CAGR
    RevenueUSD 6.6bnUSD 7.0bnUSD 7.4bnUSD 7.8bnUSD 8.1bnUSD 8.5bnUSD 8.8bnUSD 9.1bnUSD 9.4bnUSD 9.6bn+4.2%
    EBITUSD 1.2bnUSD 1.3bnUSD 1.4bnUSD 1.4bnUSD 1.5bnUSD 1.6bnUSD 1.6bnUSD 1.7bnUSD 1.7bnUSD 1.8bn+4.2%
    NOPATUSD 1.1bnUSD 1.1bnUSD 1.2bnUSD 1.2bnUSD 1.3bnUSD 1.4bnUSD 1.4bnUSD 1.5bnUSD 1.5bnUSD 1.5bn+4.2%
    Add depreciation & amortisationUSD 375.8mUSD 397.9mUSD 419.7mUSD 440.8mUSD 461.2mUSD 480.6mUSD 498.7mUSD 515.4mUSD 530.5mUSD 543.8m+4.2%
    Less capital expenditureUSD -375.8mUSD -434.8mUSD -497.6mUSD -563.6mUSD -632.4mUSD -703.6mUSD -776.4mUSD -850.2mUSD -924.3mUSD -997.9m+11.5%
    Capex, % of revenue5.7%6.2%6.7%7.2%7.8%8.3%8.8%9.3%9.9%10.4%-
    Less increase in working capitalUSD -129.0mUSD -97.7mUSD -96.0mUSD -93.4mUSD -89.9mUSD -85.4mUSD -80.0mUSD -73.7mUSD -66.5mUSD -58.5m-8.4%
    Free cashflow to firmUSD 931.1mUSD 988.0mUSD 1.0bnUSD 1.0bnUSD 1.0bnUSD 1.0bnUSD 1.0bnUSD 1.0bnUSD 1.0bnUSD 1.0bn+1.0%
    Discount factor0.96030.88550.81650.75300.69430.64030.59040.54440.50200.4629-
    Present valueUSD 894.1mUSD 874.8mUSD 824.8mUSD 773.7mUSD 722.2mUSD 670.6mUSD 619.5mUSD 569.3mUSD 520.3mUSD 472.8m-
    Present Value Of The ForecastUSD 6.9bn

    Discount Rate

    Source shown per component. All overridable above.

    Risk-free rate4.89%US 10-year Treasury (^TNX), 2026-11-02
    Equity risk premium4.23%Damodaran, January 2026
    Beta0.918Reported 0.877, pulled toward 1.0 (Blume)
    Cost of equity8.78%Risk-free + beta x equity risk premium
    Cost of debt5.29%Risk-free + 40bp, the spread for a AAA rating at 19.3x interest cover. Book interest / average debt was lower, at 2.2%.
    Market capitalisationUSD 30.6bn92.0% of capital
    Total debtUSD 2.6bn8.0% of capital, book value as a proxy
    Tax rate12.8%Effective, capped at statutory
    WACC8.44%E/V x Re + D/V x Rd x (1 - t)

    Terminal Value

    Perpetuity growth is intrinsic. The exit multiple defaults to the company's current EV/EBITDA, so it answers a different question - what the shares are worth if today's rating holds and EBITDA grows as forecast.

    Perpetuity growth at 2.50%

    Value per shareUSD 280.01

    55% of EV

    Forecast FCFF, final year
    USD 1.0bn
    Capex at depreciation, working capital in reinvestment
    USD 1.5bn
    Less reinvestment at g/ROIC (29.6% of NOPAT)
    USD -454.2m
    Capitalised
    USD 1.1bn
    ROIC (WACC floor)
    8.4%
    Terminal value, undiscounted
    USD 18.6bn
    Terminal value, discounted
    USD 8.6bn
    Enterprise value
    USD 15.6bn
    Less net debt
    USD 2.3bn
    Equity value
    USD 13.3bn

    Exit at 20.0x EBITDA

    Value per shareUSD 548.05

    75% of EV

    Terminal value, undiscounted
    USD 46.1bn
    Terminal value, discounted
    USD 21.3bn
    Enterprise value
    USD 28.3bn
    Less net debt
    USD 2.3bn
    Equity value
    USD 26.0bn

    Spread between methods: 65%.

    Sensitivity

    Value per share (USD) by discount rate and long-run growth.

    Long-run growth
    Discount rate1.50%2.00%2.50%3.00%3.50%
    6.44%411.87411.75412.97416.11422.15
    7.44%336.02330.99325.96320.93315.90
    8.44%288.40284.21280.01275.82271.62
    9.44%251.04247.49243.94240.39236.83
    10.44%220.97217.93214.89211.84208.80

    Outlined: this model. Green text: above today's price of 659.91. Shading: distance from this model's own value.

    Priced In

    What each input would have to be to justify the current price, one at a time.

    InputActualModelImplied
    Revenue growth, a year3.9%4.6%15.0%
    EBIT margin18.8%18.3%38.7%
    Discount rate-8.4%5.0%
    Download as Excel

    Live formulas, not pasted numbers - edit a driver and the workbook reprices.

    Yahoo Finance and RBA data. General information, not advice. Methodology.