DCF Studio

    TECH · NMS · Healthcare

    Bio-Techne Corporation

    Also onShortfallConsensus DriftCrosscheck

    Implied value per share

    USD 20.35

    Market price

    USD 72.67

    Implied upside

    -72.0%

    10-year forecast · Perpetuity growth terminal value · Mid-year discounting · Base case · Price 2026-11-02 · Accounts to 2026-06-30

    AdjustedReported capital expenditure averages 3.43% of revenue against depreciation and amortisation of 9.02%. A business cannot depreciate more than it invests indefinitely. Capex has been set to 9.02% of revenue so the forecast is not handed free growth. The accounts do not separate depreciation from amortisation, so the combined charge is used - if a large part of it is amortisation of an acquisition, the reported capex is probably right and this substitution is not. Override it if the reported figure is right.

    Current EV/EBITDA of 30.9x sits outside a defensible 3-20x band, so the exit multiple is capped at 20.0x. A multiple that far out usually means EBITDA is the wrong denominator for this business.

    Value Per Share

    Perpetuity growth
    USD 20.35-72.0%
    Exit multiple
    USD 45.63-37.2%
    Market price
    USD 72.67

    Same forecast, different terminal treatment. Percentages vs price.

    Forecast Cashflows

    Reporting currency (USD). Outflows negative.

    0m137m273mFY27FY28FY29FY30FY31FY32FY33FY34FY35FY36
    Nominal FCFFDiscounted to todayUSD
    LineFY27FY28FY29FY30FY31FY32FY33FY34FY35FY36CAGR
    RevenueUSD 1.3bnUSD 1.4bnUSD 1.5bnUSD 1.6bnUSD 1.8bnUSD 1.9bnUSD 2.0bnUSD 2.1bnUSD 2.1bnUSD 2.2bn+6.2%
    EBITUSD 282.9mUSD 311.3mUSD 339.6mUSD 367.4mUSD 393.9mUSD 418.6mUSD 440.9mUSD 460.3mUSD 476.1mUSD 488.0m+6.2%
    NOPATUSD 226.1mUSD 248.8mUSD 271.4mUSD 293.6mUSD 314.8mUSD 334.6mUSD 352.4mUSD 367.9mUSD 380.5mUSD 390.0m+6.2%
    Add depreciation & amortisationUSD 114.5mUSD 126.0mUSD 137.4mUSD 148.7mUSD 159.4mUSD 169.4mUSD 178.4mUSD 186.2mUSD 192.7mUSD 197.5m+6.2%
    Less capital expenditureUSD -114.5mUSD -133.0mUSD -152.9mUSD -173.7mUSD -195.2mUSD -217.0mUSD -238.6mUSD -259.5mUSD -279.3mUSD -297.4m+11.2%
    Capex, % of revenue9.0%9.5%10.0%10.5%11.1%11.6%12.1%12.6%13.1%13.6%-
    Less increase in working capitalUSD -17.0mUSD -40.7mUSD -40.6mUSD -39.7mUSD -37.9mUSD -35.4mUSD -31.9mUSD -27.7mUSD -22.7mUSD -17.0m+0.0%
    Free cashflow to firmUSD 209.1mUSD 201.0mUSD 215.5mUSD 228.9mUSD 241.0mUSD 251.6mUSD 260.3mUSD 266.9mUSD 271.2mUSD 273.1m+3.0%
    Discount factor0.95450.86960.79220.72180.65760.59910.54580.49720.45300.4127-
    Present valueUSD 199.5mUSD 174.8mUSD 170.7mUSD 165.2mUSD 158.5mUSD 150.7mUSD 142.1mUSD 132.7mUSD 122.9mUSD 112.7m-
    Present Value Of The ForecastUSD 1.5bn

    Discount Rate

    Source shown per component. All overridable above.

    Risk-free rate4.89%US 10-year Treasury (^TNX), 2026-11-02
    Equity risk premium4.23%Damodaran, January 2026
    Beta1.184Reported 1.275, pulled toward 1.0 (Blume)
    Cost of equity9.90%Risk-free + beta x equity risk premium
    Cost of debt5.29%Risk-free + 40bp, the spread for a AAA rating at 28.3x interest cover. Book interest / average debt was lower, at 2.6%.
    Market capitalisationUSD 11.4bn97.5% of capital
    Total debtUSD 289.1m2.5% of capital, book value as a proxy
    Tax rate20.1%Effective, capped at statutory
    WACC9.76%E/V x Re + D/V x Rd x (1 - t)

    Terminal Value

    Perpetuity growth is intrinsic. The exit multiple defaults to the company's current EV/EBITDA, so it answers a different question - what the shares are worth if today's rating holds and EBITDA grows as forecast.

    Perpetuity growth at 2.50%

    Value per shareUSD 20.35

    52% of EV

    Forecast FCFF, final year
    USD 273.1m
    Capex at depreciation, working capital in reinvestment
    USD 390.0m
    Less reinvestment at g/ROIC (25.6% of NOPAT)
    USD -99.9m
    Capitalised
    USD 290.2m
    ROIC (WACC floor)
    9.8%
    Terminal value, undiscounted
    USD 4.1bn
    Terminal value, discounted
    USD 1.7bn
    Enterprise value
    USD 3.2bn
    Less net debt
    USD 24.4m
    Equity value
    USD 3.2bn

    Exit at 20.0x EBITDA

    Value per shareUSD 45.63

    79% of EV

    Terminal value, undiscounted
    USD 13.7bn
    Terminal value, discounted
    USD 5.7bn
    Enterprise value
    USD 7.2bn
    Less net debt
    USD 24.4m
    Equity value
    USD 7.2bn

    Spread between methods: 77%.

    Sensitivity

    Value per share (USD) by discount rate and long-run growth.

    Long-run growth
    Discount rate1.50%2.00%2.50%3.00%3.50%
    7.76%27.5427.4927.4827.5427.68
    8.76%23.5923.3423.0922.8522.61
    9.76%20.8620.6020.3520.1019.85
    10.76%18.7218.5118.2918.0717.86
    11.76%16.9616.7816.5916.4016.21

    Outlined: this model. Green text: above today's price of 72.67. Shading: distance from this model's own value.

    Priced In

    What each input would have to be to justify the current price, one at a time.

    InputActualModelImplied
    Revenue growth, a year2.2%6.1%23.8%
    EBIT margin25.6%22.3%75.8%
    Discount rate-9.8%4.5%
    Download as Excel

    Live formulas, not pasted numbers - edit a driver and the workbook reprices.

    Yahoo Finance and RBA data. General information, not advice. Methodology.