DCF Studio

    TEP.PA · PAR · Industrials

    Teleperformance SE

    Also onConsensus Drift

    Implied value per share

    EUR 418.26

    Market price

    EUR 69.72

    Implied upside

    +499.9%

    5-year forecast · Perpetuity growth terminal value · Mid-year discounting · Base case

    AdjustedReported capital expenditure averages 2.76% of revenue against depreciation of 7.55%. A business cannot depreciate more than it invests indefinitely. Capex has been set to 7.55% of revenue so the forecast is not handed free growth. Override it if the reported figure is right.
    NoteRisk-free rate is an assumption: EUR assumption - no free live source available for this market.

    Value Per Share

    Perpetuity growth
    EUR 418.26+499.9%
    Exit multiple
    EUR 179.60+157.6%
    Market price
    EUR 69.72

    Same forecast, different terminal treatment. Percentages vs price.

    Forecast Cashflows

    Reporting currency (EUR). Outflows negative.

    0bn1bn1bnFY26FY27FY28FY29FY30
    Nominal FCFFDiscounted to todayEUR
    LineFY26FY27FY28FY29FY30CAGR
    RevenueEUR 11.0bnEUR 11.9bnEUR 12.8bnEUR 13.8bnEUR 14.8bn+7.8%
    EBITEUR 1.3bnEUR 1.4bnEUR 1.5bnEUR 1.6bnEUR 1.7bn+7.8%
    NOPATEUR 957.8mEUR 1.0bnEUR 1.1bnEUR 1.2bnEUR 1.3bn+7.8%
    Add depreciation & amortisationEUR 831.1mEUR 895.8mEUR 965.5mEUR 1.0bnEUR 1.1bn+7.8%
    Less capital expenditureEUR -831.1mEUR -895.8mEUR -965.5mEUR -1.0bnEUR -1.1bn+7.8%
    Less increase in working capitalEUR 42.3mEUR 45.6mEUR 49.1mEUR 53.0mEUR 57.1m-7.8%
    Free cashflow to firmEUR 1.0bnEUR 1.1bnEUR 1.2bnEUR 1.3bnEUR 1.3bn+7.8%
    Discount factor0.97220.91900.86870.82110.7762-
    Present valueEUR 972.3mEUR 990.6mEUR 1.0bnEUR 1.0bnEUR 1.0bn+1.9%
    Present Value Of The ForecastEUR 5.0bn

    Discount Rate

    Source shown per component. All overridable above.

    Risk-free rate3.20%EUR assumption - no free live source available for this market (assumption)
    Equity risk premium6.00%Market assumption
    Beta0.778Reported 0.669, pulled toward 1.0 (Blume)
    Cost of equity7.87%Risk-free + beta x equity risk premium
    Cost of debt5.44%Interest expense / average total debt
    Market capitalisationEUR 4.2bn45.9% of capital
    Total debtEUR 4.9bn54.1% of capital, book value as a proxy
    Tax rate25.8%Effective, capped at statutory
    WACC5.79%E/V x Re + D/V x Rd x (1 - t)

    Terminal Value

    Perpetuity growth is intrinsic. The exit multiple defaults to the company's current EV/EBITDA, so it answers a different question - what the shares are worth if today's rating holds and EBITDA grows as forecast.

    Perpetuity growth at 2.50%

    Value per shareEUR 418.26

    82% of EV

    Forecast FCFF, final year
    EUR 1.3bn
    Capex at depreciation, working capital in reinvestment
    EUR 1.3bn
    Less reinvestment at g/ROIC (24.5% of NOPAT)
    EUR -316.9m
    Capitalised
    EUR 975.7m
    ROIC (reported)
    10.2%
    Terminal value, undiscounted
    EUR 30.4bn
    Terminal value, discounted
    EUR 23.6bn
    Enterprise value
    EUR 28.6bn
    Less net debt
    EUR 3.9bn
    Equity value
    EUR 24.7bn

    Exit at 4.3x EBITDA

    Value per shareEUR 179.60

    65% of EV

    Terminal value, undiscounted
    EUR 12.2bn
    Terminal value, discounted
    EUR 9.5bn
    Enterprise value
    EUR 14.5bn
    Less net debt
    EUR 3.9bn
    Equity value
    EUR 10.6bn

    Spread between methods: 80%.

    Sensitivity

    Value per share (EUR) by discount rate and long-run growth.

    Long-run growth
    Discount rate1.50%2.00%2.50%3.00%3.50%
    3.79%721.91869.421130.371719.444319.33
    4.79%487.22541.56619.22739.72952.79
    5.79%361.76386.40418.27461.25522.62
    6.79%283.62295.84310.73329.33353.34
    7.79%230.24236.44243.67252.25262.64

    Outlined: this model. Green text: above today's price of 69.72. Shading: distance from this model's own value.

    Priced In

    What each input would have to be to justify the current price, one at a time.

    InputModelImpliedGap
    Revenue growth, every year7.8%-17.9%-25.7pp
    EBIT margin11.7%3.2%-8.5pp
    Discount rate5.8%16.5%+10.7pp
    Download as Excel

    Live formulas, not pasted numbers - edit a driver and the workbook reprices.

    Yahoo Finance and RBA data. General information, not advice. Methodology.