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    TGT · NYQ · Consumer Defensive

    Target Corporation

    Also onShortfallConsensus DriftCrosscheck

    Implied value per share

    USD 107.67

    Market price

    USD 158.38

    Implied upside

    -32.0%

    10-year forecast · Perpetuity growth terminal value · Mid-year discounting · Base case · Price 2026-11-02 · Accounts to 2026-01-31

    AdjustedCapital expenditure runs at 4.0% of revenue against depreciation of 2.7%. A perpetuity has to be a steady state, so the forecast tapers capex to maintenance at depreciation plus the reinvestment terminal growth requires (g/ROIC of NOPAT), and the terminal year carries on from there. The bridge is shown under Terminal Value.

    Value Per Share

    Perpetuity growth
    USD 107.67-32.0%
    Exit multiple
    USD 138.82-12.4%
    Market price
    USD 158.38

    Same forecast, different terminal treatment. Percentages vs price.

    Forecast Cashflows

    Reporting currency (USD). Outflows negative.

    0bn2bn4bnFY27FY28FY29FY30FY31FY32FY33FY34FY35FY36
    Nominal FCFFDiscounted to todayUSD
    LineFY27FY28FY29FY30FY31FY32FY33FY34FY35FY36CAGR
    RevenueUSD 110.2bnUSD 113.8bnUSD 117.5bnUSD 121.1bnUSD 124.7bnUSD 128.4bnUSD 132.0bnUSD 135.5bnUSD 139.0bnUSD 142.5bn+2.9%
    EBITUSD 5.2bnUSD 5.4bnUSD 5.6bnUSD 5.7bnUSD 5.9bnUSD 6.1bnUSD 6.3bnUSD 6.4bnUSD 6.6bnUSD 6.8bn+2.9%
    NOPATUSD 4.1bnUSD 4.3bnUSD 4.4bnUSD 4.5bnUSD 4.7bnUSD 4.8bnUSD 4.9bnUSD 5.1bnUSD 5.2bnUSD 5.3bn+2.9%
    Add depreciation & amortisationUSD 3.0bnUSD 3.1bnUSD 3.2bnUSD 3.3bnUSD 3.4bnUSD 3.5bnUSD 3.6bnUSD 3.7bnUSD 3.8bnUSD 3.9bn+2.9%
    Less capital expenditureUSD -4.4bnUSD -4.4bnUSD -4.5bnUSD -4.6bnUSD -4.6bnUSD -4.7bnUSD -4.7bnUSD -4.8bnUSD -4.8bnUSD -4.9bn+1.2%
    Capex, % of revenue4.0%3.9%3.8%3.8%3.7%3.7%3.6%3.5%3.5%3.4%-
    Less increase in working capitalUSD -41.9mUSD -28.1mUSD -28.2mUSD -28.2mUSD -28.1mUSD -28.0mUSD -27.8mUSD -27.5mUSD -27.2mUSD -26.9m-4.8%
    Free cashflow to firmUSD 2.7bnUSD 2.9bnUSD 3.1bnUSD 3.2bnUSD 3.4bnUSD 3.6bnUSD 3.8bnUSD 3.9bnUSD 4.1bnUSD 4.3bn+5.2%
    Discount factor0.96280.89240.82710.76670.71060.65870.61050.56590.52450.4862-
    Present valueUSD 2.6bnUSD 2.6bnUSD 2.5bnUSD 2.5bnUSD 2.4bnUSD 2.4bnUSD 2.3bnUSD 2.2bnUSD 2.2bnUSD 2.1bn-
    Present Value Of The ForecastUSD 23.7bn

    Discount Rate

    Source shown per component. All overridable above.

    Risk-free rate4.89%US 10-year Treasury (^TNX), 2026-11-02
    Equity risk premium4.23%Damodaran, January 2026
    Beta0.954Reported 0.932, pulled toward 1.0 (Blume)
    Cost of equity8.93%Risk-free + beta x equity risk premium
    Cost of debt5.29%Risk-free + 40bp, the spread for a AAA rating at 11.5x interest cover. Book interest / average debt was lower, at 2.2%.
    Market capitalisationUSD 72.0bn78.0% of capital
    Total debtUSD 20.3bn22.0% of capital, book value as a proxy
    Tax rate21.0%Effective, capped at statutory
    WACC7.89%E/V x Re + D/V x Rd x (1 - t)

    Terminal Value

    Perpetuity growth is intrinsic. The exit multiple defaults to the company's current EV/EBITDA, so it answers a different question - what the shares are worth if today's rating holds and EBITDA grows as forecast.

    Perpetuity growth at 2.50%

    Value per shareUSD 107.67

    63% of EV

    Forecast FCFF, final year
    USD 4.3bn
    Capex at depreciation, working capital in reinvestment
    USD 5.3bn
    Less reinvestment at g/ROIC (18.7% of NOPAT)
    USD -996.4m
    Capitalised
    USD 4.3bn
    ROIC (reported)
    13.4%
    Terminal value, undiscounted
    USD 82.5bn
    Terminal value, discounted
    USD 40.1bn
    Enterprise value
    USD 63.9bn
    Less net debt
    USD 14.8bn
    Equity value
    USD 49.1bn

    Exit at 10.5x EBITDA

    Value per shareUSD 138.82

    70% of EV

    Terminal value, undiscounted
    USD 111.7bn
    Terminal value, discounted
    USD 54.3bn
    Enterprise value
    USD 78.0bn
    Less net debt
    USD 14.8bn
    Equity value
    USD 63.2bn

    Spread between methods: 25%.

    Sensitivity

    Value per share (USD) by discount rate and long-run growth.

    Long-run growth
    Discount rate1.50%2.00%2.50%3.00%3.50%
    5.89%167.01177.71191.89211.38239.51
    6.89%128.63133.69140.15148.54159.72
    7.89%102.36104.71107.67111.45116.32
    8.89%83.2884.2085.4287.0089.05
    9.89%68.8268.9569.2269.6770.32

    Outlined: this model. Green text: above today's price of 158.38. Shading: distance from this model's own value.

    Priced In

    What each input would have to be to justify the current price, one at a time.

    InputActualModelImplied
    Revenue growth, a year-1.3%3.1%6.8%
    EBIT margin5.3%4.7%6.3%
    Discount rate-7.9%6.5%
    Download as Excel

    Live formulas, not pasted numbers - edit a driver and the workbook reprices.

    Yahoo Finance and RBA data. General information, not advice. Methodology.