DCF Studio

    TMO · NYQ · Healthcare

    Thermo Fisher Scientific Inc.

    Also onShortfallConsensus DriftCrosscheck

    Implied value per share

    USD 322.65

    Market price

    USD 682.65

    Implied upside

    -52.7%

    10-year forecast · Perpetuity growth terminal value · Mid-year discounting · Base case · Price 2026-11-02 · Accounts to 2025-12-31

    Current EV/EBITDA of 25.9x sits outside a defensible 3-20x band, so the exit multiple is capped at 20.0x. A multiple that far out usually means EBITDA is the wrong denominator for this business.

    Value Per Share

    Perpetuity growth
    USD 322.65-52.7%
    Exit multiple
    USD 525.64-23.0%
    Market price
    USD 682.65

    Same forecast, different terminal treatment. Percentages vs price.

    Forecast Cashflows

    Reporting currency (USD). Outflows negative.

    0bn5bn10bnFY26FY27FY28FY29FY30FY31FY32FY33FY34FY35
    Nominal FCFFDiscounted to todayUSD
    LineFY26FY27FY28FY29FY30FY31FY32FY33FY34FY35CAGR
    RevenueUSD 48.0bnUSD 50.5bnUSD 53.0bnUSD 55.5bnUSD 57.8bnUSD 60.0bnUSD 62.2bnUSD 64.2bnUSD 66.0bnUSD 67.6bn+3.9%
    EBITUSD 8.7bnUSD 9.1bnUSD 9.6bnUSD 10.0bnUSD 10.4bnUSD 10.8bnUSD 11.2bnUSD 11.6bnUSD 11.9bnUSD 12.2bn+3.9%
    NOPATUSD 8.0bnUSD 8.4bnUSD 8.8bnUSD 9.2bnUSD 9.6bnUSD 9.9bnUSD 10.3bnUSD 10.6bnUSD 10.9bnUSD 11.2bn+3.9%
    Add depreciation & amortisationUSD 3.5bnUSD 3.7bnUSD 3.8bnUSD 4.0bnUSD 4.2bnUSD 4.3bnUSD 4.5bnUSD 4.6bnUSD 4.8bnUSD 4.9bn+3.9%
    Less capital expenditureUSD -1.8bnUSD -2.2bnUSD -2.6bnUSD -3.0bnUSD -3.4bnUSD -3.9bnUSD -4.4bnUSD -4.8bnUSD -5.3bnUSD -5.8bn+13.8%
    Capex, % of revenue3.8%4.3%4.9%5.4%5.9%6.5%7.0%7.5%8.1%8.6%-
    Less increase in working capitalUSD -820.4mUSD -601.6mUSD -591.7mUSD -577.1mUSD -557.9mUSD -533.9mUSD -505.2mUSD -471.9mUSD -434.2mUSD -392.2m-7.9%
    Free cashflow to firmUSD 8.8bnUSD 9.2bnUSD 9.5bnUSD 9.6bnUSD 9.8bnUSD 9.9bnUSD 9.9bnUSD 10.0bnUSD 9.9bnUSD 9.9bn+1.3%
    Discount factor0.96130.88840.82100.75880.70120.64810.59890.55350.51150.4727-
    Present valueUSD 8.5bnUSD 8.2bnUSD 7.8bnUSD 7.3bnUSD 6.9bnUSD 6.4bnUSD 6.0bnUSD 5.5bnUSD 5.1bnUSD 4.7bn-
    Present Value Of The ForecastUSD 66.2bn

    Discount Rate

    Source shown per component. All overridable above.

    Risk-free rate4.89%US 10-year Treasury (^TNX), 2026-11-02
    Equity risk premium4.23%Damodaran, January 2026
    Beta0.896Reported 0.845, pulled toward 1.0 (Blume)
    Cost of equity8.68%Risk-free + beta x equity risk premium
    Cost of debt5.59%Risk-free + 70bp, the spread for a A+ rating at 5.7x interest cover. Book interest / average debt was lower, at 4.0%.
    Market capitalisationUSD 252.9bn86.5% of capital
    Total debtUSD 39.4bn13.5% of capital, book value as a proxy
    Tax rate8.2%Effective, capped at statutory
    WACC8.21%E/V x Re + D/V x Rd x (1 - t)

    Terminal Value

    Perpetuity growth is intrinsic. The exit multiple defaults to the company's current EV/EBITDA, so it answers a different question - what the shares are worth if today's rating holds and EBITDA grows as forecast.

    Perpetuity growth at 2.50%

    Value per shareUSD 322.65

    56% of EV

    Forecast FCFF, final year
    USD 9.9bn
    Capex at depreciation, working capital in reinvestment
    USD 14.2bn
    Less reinvestment at g/ROIC (29.4% of NOPAT)
    USD -4.2bn
    Capitalised
    USD 10.0bn
    ROIC (reported)
    8.5%
    Terminal value, undiscounted
    USD 179.8bn
    Terminal value, discounted
    USD 85.0bn
    Enterprise value
    USD 151.2bn
    Less net debt
    USD 29.3bn
    Equity value
    USD 122.0bn

    Exit at 20.0x EBITDA

    Value per shareUSD 525.64

    71% of EV

    Terminal value, undiscounted
    USD 342.1bn
    Terminal value, discounted
    USD 161.7bn
    Enterprise value
    USD 228.0bn
    Less net debt
    USD 29.3bn
    Equity value
    USD 198.7bn

    Spread between methods: 48%.

    Sensitivity

    Value per share (USD) by discount rate and long-run growth.

    Long-run growth
    Discount rate1.50%2.00%2.50%3.00%3.50%
    6.21%502.91512.69526.60546.56575.94
    7.21%401.75401.83403.04405.78410.65
    8.21%330.82326.66322.65318.81315.20
    9.21%282.58278.28273.98269.68265.38
    10.21%245.77242.10238.42234.75231.07

    Outlined: this model. Green text: above today's price of 682.65. Shading: distance from this model's own value.

    Priced In

    What each input would have to be to justify the current price, one at a time.

    InputActualModelImplied
    Revenue growth, a year-0.3%4.3%12.6%
    EBIT margin18.9%18.1%37.9%
    Discount rate-8.2%5.4%
    Download as Excel

    Live formulas, not pasted numbers - edit a driver and the workbook reprices.

    Yahoo Finance and RBA data. General information, not advice. Methodology.