DCF Studio

    TMUS · NMS · Communication Services

    T-Mobile US, Inc.

    Also onShortfallConsensus DriftCrosscheck

    Implied value per share

    USD 170.79

    Market price

    USD 160.15

    Implied upside

    +6.6%

    10-year forecast · Perpetuity growth terminal value · Mid-year discounting · Base case · Price 2026-11-02 · Accounts to 2025-12-31

    Value Per Share

    Perpetuity growth
    USD 170.79+6.6%
    Exit multiple
    USD 181.88+13.6%
    Market price
    USD 160.15

    Same forecast, different terminal treatment. Percentages vs price.

    Forecast Cashflows

    Reporting currency (USD). Outflows negative.

    0bn7bn14bnFY26FY27FY28FY29FY30FY31FY32FY33FY34FY35
    Nominal FCFFDiscounted to todayUSD
    LineFY26FY27FY28FY29FY30FY31FY32FY33FY34FY35CAGR
    RevenueUSD 94.8bnUSD 98.9bnUSD 103.0bnUSD 107.1bnUSD 111.0bnUSD 114.8bnUSD 118.5bnUSD 122.0bnUSD 125.3bnUSD 128.5bn+3.4%
    EBITUSD 16.9bnUSD 17.7bnUSD 18.4bnUSD 19.1bnUSD 19.8bnUSD 20.5bnUSD 21.2bnUSD 21.8bnUSD 22.4bnUSD 23.0bn+3.4%
    NOPATUSD 13.4bnUSD 14.0bnUSD 14.5bnUSD 15.1bnUSD 15.7bnUSD 16.2bnUSD 16.7bnUSD 17.2bnUSD 17.7bnUSD 18.1bn+3.4%
    Add depreciation & amortisationUSD 15.3bnUSD 16.0bnUSD 16.6bnUSD 17.3bnUSD 17.9bnUSD 18.6bnUSD 19.1bnUSD 19.7bnUSD 20.3bnUSD 20.8bn+3.4%
    Less capital expenditureUSD -15.4bnUSD -16.5bnUSD -17.6bnUSD -18.7bnUSD -19.9bnUSD -21.1bnUSD -22.2bnUSD -23.4bnUSD -24.6bnUSD -25.8bn+5.9%
    Capex, % of revenue16.2%16.6%17.1%17.5%17.9%18.3%18.8%19.2%19.6%20.1%-
    Less increase in working capitalUSD -146.9mUSD -94.1mUSD -93.0mUSD -91.3mUSD -89.2mUSD -86.6mUSD -83.5mUSD -79.8mUSD -75.7mUSD -71.1m-7.7%
    Free cashflow to firmUSD 13.2bnUSD 13.4bnUSD 13.5bnUSD 13.6bnUSD 13.6bnUSD 13.6bnUSD 13.5bnUSD 13.4bnUSD 13.3bnUSD 13.1bn-0.1%
    Discount factor0.97060.91430.86130.81130.76430.72000.67820.63890.60190.5670-
    Present valueUSD 12.8bnUSD 12.3bnUSD 11.6bnUSD 11.0bnUSD 10.4bnUSD 9.8bnUSD 9.2bnUSD 8.6bnUSD 8.0bnUSD 7.4bn-
    Present Value Of The ForecastUSD 101.1bn

    Discount Rate

    Source shown per component. All overridable above.

    Risk-free rate4.89%US 10-year Treasury (^TNX), 2026-11-02
    Equity risk premium4.23%Damodaran, January 2026
    Beta0.583Reported 0.378, pulled toward 1.0 (Blume)
    Cost of equity7.36%Risk-free + beta x equity risk premium
    Cost of debt5.67%Risk-free + 78bp, the spread for a A rating at 4.9x interest cover. Book interest / average debt was lower, at 3.2%.
    Market capitalisationUSD 169.6bn58.1% of capital
    Total debtUSD 122.3bn41.9% of capital, book value as a proxy
    Tax rate21.0%Effective, capped at statutory
    WACC6.16%E/V x Re + D/V x Rd x (1 - t)

    Terminal Value

    Perpetuity growth is intrinsic. The exit multiple defaults to the company's current EV/EBITDA, so it answers a different question - what the shares are worth if today's rating holds and EBITDA grows as forecast.

    Perpetuity growth at 2.50%

    Value per shareUSD 170.79

    67% of EV

    Forecast FCFF, final year
    USD 13.1bn
    Capex at depreciation, working capital in reinvestment
    USD 18.1bn
    Less reinvestment at g/ROIC (27.6% of NOPAT)
    USD -5.0bn
    Capitalised
    USD 13.1bn
    ROIC (reported)
    9.1%
    Terminal value, undiscounted
    USD 368.2bn
    Terminal value, discounted
    USD 208.7bn
    Enterprise value
    USD 309.8bn
    Less net debt
    USD 116.7bn
    Equity value
    USD 193.2bn

    Exit at 8.9x EBITDA

    Value per shareUSD 181.88

    69% of EV

    Terminal value, undiscounted
    USD 390.3bn
    Terminal value, discounted
    USD 221.3bn
    Enterprise value
    USD 322.4bn
    Less net debt
    USD 116.7bn
    Equity value
    USD 205.7bn

    Spread between methods: 6%.

    Sensitivity

    Value per share (USD) by discount rate and long-run growth.

    Long-run growth
    Discount rate1.50%2.00%2.50%3.00%3.50%
    4.16%347.89399.04482.60640.641043.64
    5.16%226.38243.57268.12305.15365.97
    6.16%157.05162.83170.79181.98198.23
    7.16%112.21113.33115.13117.87121.94
    8.16%80.8379.8579.0578.4778.20

    Outlined: this model. Green text: above today's price of 160.15. Shading: distance from this model's own value.

    Priced In

    What each input would have to be to justify the current price, one at a time.

    InputActualModelImplied
    Revenue growth, a year3.5%3.8%3.4%
    EBIT margin22.1%17.9%17.2%
    Discount rate-6.2%6.3%
    Download as Excel

    Live formulas, not pasted numbers - edit a driver and the workbook reprices.

    Yahoo Finance and RBA data. General information, not advice. Methodology.