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    TPL · NYQ · Energy

    Texas Pacific Land Corporation

    Also onShortfallConsensus DriftCrosscheck

    Implied value per share

    USD 205.94

    Market price

    USD 329.95

    Implied upside

    -37.6%

    10-year forecast · Perpetuity growth terminal value · Mid-year discounting · Base case · Price 2026-11-02 · Accounts to 2025-12-31

    AdjustedConsensus rests on as few as 1 analyst estimate(s).
    AdjustedCapital expenditure runs at 33.5% of revenue against depreciation of 4.0%. A perpetuity has to be a steady state, so the forecast tapers capex to maintenance at depreciation plus the reinvestment terminal growth requires (g/ROIC of NOPAT), and the terminal year carries on from there. The bridge is shown under Terminal Value.

    Current EV/EBITDA of 34.6x sits outside a defensible 3-20x band, so the exit multiple is capped at 20.0x. A multiple that far out usually means EBITDA is the wrong denominator for this business.

    Value Per Share

    Perpetuity growth
    USD 205.94-37.6%
    Exit multiple
    USD 278.37-15.6%
    Market price
    USD 329.95

    Same forecast, different terminal treatment. Percentages vs price.

    Forecast Cashflows

    Reporting currency (USD). Outflows negative.

    0bn1bn1bnFY26FY27FY28FY29FY30FY31FY32FY33FY34FY35
    Nominal FCFFDiscounted to todayUSD
    LineFY26FY27FY28FY29FY30FY31FY32FY33FY34FY35CAGR
    RevenueUSD 1.0bnUSD 1.1bnUSD 1.3bnUSD 1.4bnUSD 1.5bnUSD 1.6bnUSD 1.7bnUSD 1.8bnUSD 1.8bnUSD 1.9bn+6.9%
    EBITUSD 795.0mUSD 885.5mUSD 976.3mUSD 1.1bnUSD 1.2bnUSD 1.2bnUSD 1.3bnUSD 1.4bnUSD 1.4bnUSD 1.4bn+6.9%
    NOPATUSD 628.1mUSD 699.5mUSD 771.3mUSD 841.9mUSD 909.6mUSD 972.7mUSD 1.0bnUSD 1.1bnUSD 1.1bnUSD 1.1bn+6.9%
    Add depreciation & amortisationUSD 40.9mUSD 45.6mUSD 50.2mUSD 54.8mUSD 59.2mUSD 63.3mUSD 67.0mUSD 70.2mUSD 72.7mUSD 74.6m+6.9%
    Less capital expenditureUSD -341.9mUSD -348.8mUSD -349.2mUSD -342.7mUSD -328.6mUSD -306.8mUSD -277.6mUSD -241.3mUSD -198.9mUSD -151.5m-8.6%
    Capex, % of revenue33.5%30.7%27.9%25.1%22.2%19.4%16.6%13.8%11.0%8.1%-
    Less increase in working capitalUSD -36.1mUSD -18.9mUSD -19.0mUSD -18.7mUSD -17.9mUSD -16.7mUSD -15.0mUSD -12.8mUSD -10.3mUSD -7.4m-16.2%
    Free cashflow to firmUSD 291.0mUSD 377.4mUSD 453.3mUSD 535.4mUSD 622.4mUSD 712.6mUSD 803.9mUSD 894.0mUSD 980.4mUSD 1.1bn+15.5%
    Discount factor0.96260.89180.82630.76550.70930.65710.60880.56410.52260.4842-
    Present valueUSD 280.1mUSD 336.6mUSD 374.5mUSD 409.9mUSD 441.4mUSD 468.3mUSD 489.4mUSD 504.3mUSD 512.4mUSD 513.5m-
    Present Value Of The ForecastUSD 4.3bn

    Discount Rate

    Source shown per component. All overridable above.

    Risk-free rate4.89%US 10-year Treasury (^TNX), 2026-11-02
    Equity risk premium4.23%Damodaran, January 2026
    Beta0.719Reported 0.580, pulled toward 1.0 (Blume)
    Cost of equity7.93%Risk-free + beta x equity risk premium
    Cost of debt8.30%Interest expense / average total debt
    Market capitalisationUSD 22.8bn99.9% of capital
    Total debtUSD 16.2m0.1% of capital, book value as a proxy
    Tax rate21.0%Effective, capped at statutory
    WACC7.93%E/V x Re + D/V x Rd x (1 - t)

    Terminal Value

    Perpetuity growth is intrinsic. The exit multiple defaults to the company's current EV/EBITDA, so it answers a different question - what the shares are worth if today's rating holds and EBITDA grows as forecast.

    Perpetuity growth at 2.50%

    Value per shareUSD 205.94

    69% of EV

    Forecast FCFF, final year
    USD 1.1bn
    Capex at depreciation, working capital in reinvestment
    USD 1.1bn
    Less reinvestment at g/ROIC (6.7% of NOPAT)
    USD -76.9m
    Capitalised
    USD 1.1bn
    ROIC (reported)
    37.2%
    Terminal value, undiscounted
    USD 20.1bn
    Terminal value, discounted
    USD 9.8bn
    Enterprise value
    USD 14.1bn
    Less net debt
    USD -128.6m
    Equity value
    USD 14.2bn

    Exit at 20.0x EBITDA

    Value per shareUSD 278.37

    77% of EV

    Terminal value, undiscounted
    USD 30.5bn
    Terminal value, discounted
    USD 14.8bn
    Enterprise value
    USD 19.1bn
    Less net debt
    USD -128.6m
    Equity value
    USD 19.2bn

    Spread between methods: 30%.

    Sensitivity

    Value per share (USD) by discount rate and long-run growth.

    Long-run growth
    Discount rate1.50%2.00%2.50%3.00%3.50%
    5.93%283.61307.57338.66380.54439.86
    6.93%226.47240.21257.15278.54306.30
    7.93%187.39195.84205.94218.18233.29
    8.93%159.05164.50170.88178.40187.39
    9.93%137.62141.25145.43150.27155.94

    Outlined: this model. Green text: above today's price of 329.95. Shading: distance from this model's own value.

    Priced In

    What each input would have to be to justify the current price, one at a time.

    InputActualModelImplied
    Revenue growth, a year6.1%8.8%14.5%
    Discount rate-7.9%6.0%
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    Yahoo Finance and RBA data. General information, not advice. Methodology.