DCF Studio

    TPR · NYQ · Consumer Cyclical

    Tapestry, Inc.

    Also onShortfallConsensus DriftCrosscheck

    Implied value per share

    USD 87.91

    Market price

    USD 120.76

    Implied upside

    -27.2%

    10-year forecast · Perpetuity growth terminal value · Mid-year discounting · Base case · Price 2026-11-02 · Accounts to 2026-06-30

    Value Per Share

    Perpetuity growth
    USD 87.91-27.2%
    Exit multiple
    USD 103.42-14.4%
    Market price
    USD 120.76

    Same forecast, different terminal treatment. Percentages vs price.

    Forecast Cashflows

    Reporting currency (USD). Outflows negative.

    0bn1bn2bnFY27FY28FY29FY30FY31FY32FY33FY34FY35FY36
    Nominal FCFFDiscounted to todayUSD
    LineFY27FY28FY29FY30FY31FY32FY33FY34FY35FY36CAGR
    RevenueUSD 8.5bnUSD 9.0bnUSD 9.4bnUSD 9.9bnUSD 10.3bnUSD 10.7bnUSD 11.1bnUSD 11.4bnUSD 11.7bnUSD 12.0bn+3.9%
    EBITUSD 1.6bnUSD 1.7bnUSD 1.8bnUSD 1.9bnUSD 2.0bnUSD 2.0bnUSD 2.1bnUSD 2.2bnUSD 2.2bnUSD 2.3bn+3.9%
    NOPATUSD 1.3bnUSD 1.4bnUSD 1.5bnUSD 1.6bnUSD 1.6bnUSD 1.7bnUSD 1.7bnUSD 1.8bnUSD 1.8bnUSD 1.9bn+3.9%
    Add depreciation & amortisationUSD 271.5mUSD 285.8mUSD 299.8mUSD 313.6mUSD 326.8mUSD 339.5mUSD 351.5mUSD 362.7mUSD 373.0mUSD 382.3m+3.9%
    Less capital expenditureUSD -175.5mUSD -202.8mUSD -231.8mUSD -262.2mUSD -294.0mUSD -326.9mUSD -360.8mUSD -395.2mUSD -430.1mUSD -465.1m+11.4%
    Capex, % of revenue2.1%2.3%2.5%2.7%2.9%3.1%3.3%3.5%3.7%3.9%-
    Less increase in working capitalUSD -48.5mUSD -40.9mUSD -40.2mUSD -39.2mUSD -37.9mUSD -36.3mUSD -34.3mUSD -32.1mUSD -29.5mUSD -26.7m-6.4%
    Free cashflow to firmUSD 1.4bnUSD 1.5bnUSD 1.5bnUSD 1.6bnUSD 1.6bnUSD 1.7bnUSD 1.7bnUSD 1.7bnUSD 1.8bnUSD 1.8bn+2.8%
    Discount factor0.95540.87190.79580.72630.66290.60500.55220.50400.46000.4198-
    Present valueUSD 1.3bnUSD 1.3bnUSD 1.2bnUSD 1.1bnUSD 1.1bnUSD 1.0bnUSD 935.8mUSD 871.5mUSD 808.8mUSD 748.0m-
    Present Value Of The ForecastUSD 10.4bn

    Discount Rate

    Source shown per component. All overridable above.

    Risk-free rate4.89%US 10-year Treasury (^TNX), 2026-11-02
    Equity risk premium4.23%Damodaran, January 2026
    Beta1.308Reported 1.460, pulled toward 1.0 (Blume)
    Cost of equity10.43%Risk-free + beta x equity risk premium
    Cost of debt5.29%Risk-free + 40bp, the spread for a AAA rating at 34.7x interest cover. Book interest / average debt was lower, at 1.4%.
    Market capitalisationUSD 24.0bn85.8% of capital
    Total debtUSD 4.0bn14.2% of capital, book value as a proxy
    Tax rate18.0%Effective, capped at statutory
    WACC9.57%E/V x Re + D/V x Rd x (1 - t)

    Terminal Value

    Perpetuity growth is intrinsic. The exit multiple defaults to the company's current EV/EBITDA, so it answers a different question - what the shares are worth if today's rating holds and EBITDA grows as forecast.

    Perpetuity growth at 2.50%

    Value per shareUSD 87.91

    51% of EV

    Forecast FCFF, final year
    USD 1.8bn
    Capex at depreciation, working capital in reinvestment
    USD 2.0bn
    Less reinvestment at g/ROIC (8.9% of NOPAT)
    USD -174.2m
    Capitalised
    USD 1.8bn
    ROIC (reported)
    28.2%
    Terminal value, undiscounted
    USD 26.0bn
    Terminal value, discounted
    USD 10.9bn
    Enterprise value
    USD 21.3bn
    Less net debt
    USD 2.8bn
    Equity value
    USD 18.5bn

    Exit at 12.6x EBITDA

    Value per shareUSD 103.42

    58% of EV

    Terminal value, undiscounted
    USD 33.8bn
    Terminal value, discounted
    USD 14.2bn
    Enterprise value
    USD 24.5bn
    Less net debt
    USD 2.8bn
    Equity value
    USD 21.7bn

    Spread between methods: 16%.

    Sensitivity

    Value per share (USD) by discount rate and long-run growth.

    Long-run growth
    Discount rate1.50%2.00%2.50%3.00%3.50%
    7.57%115.36120.43126.58134.15143.69
    8.57%97.23100.36104.06108.50113.88
    9.57%83.6185.6087.9190.6493.86
    10.57%73.0174.2975.7677.4879.49
    11.57%64.5265.3466.2967.3868.65

    Outlined: this model. Green text: above today's price of 120.76. Shading: distance from this model's own value.

    Priced In

    What each input would have to be to justify the current price, one at a time.

    InputActualModelImplied
    Revenue growth, a year6.3%4.2%7.7%
    EBIT margin23.9%19.2%25.6%
    Discount rate-9.6%7.8%
    Download as Excel

    Live formulas, not pasted numbers - edit a driver and the workbook reprices.

    Yahoo Finance and RBA data. General information, not advice. Methodology.