DCF Studio

    TRMB · NMS · Technology

    Trimble Inc.

    Also onShortfallConsensus DriftCrosscheck

    Implied value per share

    USD 31.21

    Market price

    USD 65.84

    Implied upside

    -52.6%

    10-year forecast · Perpetuity growth terminal value · Mid-year discounting · Base case · Price 2026-11-02 · Accounts to 2025-12-31

    AdjustedReported capital expenditure averages just 0.97% of revenue, which is too low to be the company's real investment - property trusts and similar structures invest through lines that are not reported as capex. Capex has been set to 1.05% of revenue so the forecast is not handed free growth. Override it if the reported figure is right.

    Current EV/EBITDA of 20.3x sits outside a defensible 3-20x band, so the exit multiple is capped at 20.0x. A multiple that far out usually means EBITDA is the wrong denominator for this business.

    Value Per Share

    Perpetuity growth
    USD 31.21-52.6%
    Exit multiple
    USD 56.78-13.8%
    Market price
    USD 65.84

    Same forecast, different terminal treatment. Percentages vs price.

    Forecast Cashflows

    Reporting currency (USD). Outflows negative.

    0m367m734mFY26FY27FY28FY29FY30FY31FY32FY33FY34FY35
    Nominal FCFFDiscounted to todayUSD
    LineFY26FY27FY28FY29FY30FY31FY32FY33FY34FY35CAGR
    RevenueUSD 3.9bnUSD 4.2bnUSD 4.5bnUSD 4.8bnUSD 5.1bnUSD 5.4bnUSD 5.6bnUSD 5.9bnUSD 6.0bnUSD 6.2bn+5.2%
    EBITUSD 567.1mUSD 611.8mUSD 655.8mUSD 698.6mUSD 739.5mUSD 777.9mUSD 813.0mUSD 844.2mUSD 871.0mUSD 892.8m+5.2%
    NOPATUSD 460.1mUSD 496.3mUSD 532.0mUSD 566.8mUSD 600.0mUSD 631.1mUSD 659.6mUSD 684.9mUSD 706.6mUSD 724.3m+5.2%
    Add depreciation & amortisationUSD 227.4mUSD 245.3mUSD 263.0mUSD 280.1mUSD 296.5mUSD 311.9mUSD 326.0mUSD 338.5mUSD 349.2mUSD 358.0m+5.2%
    Less capital expenditureUSD -41.3mUSD -63.7mUSD -88.8mUSD -116.4mUSD -146.3mUSD -178.2mUSD -211.7mUSD -246.2mUSD -281.2mUSD -316.1m+25.4%
    Capex, % of revenue1.1%1.5%2.0%2.4%2.9%3.3%3.8%4.2%4.7%5.1%-
    Less increase in working capitalUSD -76.0mUSD -68.5mUSD -67.6mUSD -65.7mUSD -62.8mUSD -58.8mUSD -53.9mUSD -47.9mUSD -41.1mUSD -33.4m-8.7%
    Free cashflow to firmUSD 570.2mUSD 609.5mUSD 638.7mUSD 664.8mUSD 687.4mUSD 706.0mUSD 720.0mUSD 729.3mUSD 733.6mUSD 732.7m+2.8%
    Discount factor0.95530.87180.79560.72610.66260.60470.55180.50360.45960.4194-
    Present valueUSD 544.7mUSD 531.3mUSD 508.1mUSD 482.7mUSD 455.5mUSD 426.9mUSD 397.3mUSD 367.3mUSD 337.2mUSD 307.3m-
    Present Value Of The ForecastUSD 4.4bn

    Discount Rate

    Source shown per component. All overridable above.

    Risk-free rate4.89%US 10-year Treasury (^TNX), 2026-11-02
    Equity risk premium4.23%Damodaran, January 2026
    Beta1.218Reported 1.325, pulled toward 1.0 (Blume)
    Cost of equity10.05%Risk-free + beta x equity risk premium
    Cost of debt5.44%Risk-free + 55bp, the spread for a AA rating at 8.2x interest cover. Book interest / average debt was lower, at 5.3%.
    Market capitalisationUSD 15.4bn91.7% of capital
    Total debtUSD 1.4bn8.3% of capital, book value as a proxy
    Tax rate18.9%Effective, capped at statutory
    WACC9.58%E/V x Re + D/V x Rd x (1 - t)

    Terminal Value

    Perpetuity growth is intrinsic. The exit multiple defaults to the company's current EV/EBITDA, so it answers a different question - what the shares are worth if today's rating holds and EBITDA grows as forecast.

    Perpetuity growth at 2.50%

    Value per shareUSD 31.21

    50% of EV

    Forecast FCFF, final year
    USD 732.7m
    Capex at depreciation, working capital in reinvestment
    USD 962.0m
    Less reinvestment at g/ROIC (26.1% of NOPAT)
    USD -251.1m
    Capitalised
    USD 710.9m
    ROIC (WACC floor)
    9.6%
    Terminal value, undiscounted
    USD 10.3bn
    Terminal value, discounted
    USD 4.3bn
    Enterprise value
    USD 8.7bn
    Less net debt
    USD 1.1bn
    Equity value
    USD 7.5bn

    Exit at 20.0x EBITDA

    Value per shareUSD 56.78

    71% of EV

    Terminal value, undiscounted
    USD 25.0bn
    Terminal value, discounted
    USD 10.5bn
    Enterprise value
    USD 14.9bn
    Less net debt
    USD 1.1bn
    Equity value
    USD 13.7bn

    Spread between methods: 58%.

    Sensitivity

    Value per share (USD) by discount rate and long-run growth.

    Long-run growth
    Discount rate1.50%2.00%2.50%3.00%3.50%
    7.58%42.2741.6741.0840.4839.89
    8.58%36.5636.0635.5635.0734.57
    9.58%32.0631.6331.2130.7930.37
    10.58%28.4228.0627.7027.3326.97
    11.58%25.4225.1124.7924.4824.17

    Outlined: this model. Green text: above today's price of 65.84. Shading: distance from this model's own value.

    Priced In

    What each input would have to be to justify the current price, one at a time.

    InputActualModelImplied
    Revenue growth, a year-0.8%5.6%14.9%
    EBIT margin17.0%14.4%32.7%
    Discount rate-9.6%5.4%
    Download as Excel

    Live formulas, not pasted numbers - edit a driver and the workbook reprices.

    Yahoo Finance and RBA data. General information, not advice. Methodology.