DCF Studio

    TSLA · NMS · Consumer Cyclical

    Tesla, Inc.

    Also onShortfallConsensus DriftCrosscheck

    Implied value per share

    USD 36.54

    Market price

    USD 403.82

    Implied upside

    -91.0%

    10-year forecast · Perpetuity growth terminal value · Mid-year discounting · Base case · Price 2026-11-02 · Accounts to 2025-12-31

    Wrong toolThis model values the shares at 9.0% of the market price. A gap that size is a modelling failure rather than a view - most often an unusable beta, a currency or units mismatch, or a cashflow base that does not represent the business. Read the figures below as diagnostics, not as a call.
    AdjustedCapital expenditure runs at 9.7% of revenue against depreciation of 5.4%. A perpetuity has to be a steady state, so the forecast tapers capex to maintenance at depreciation plus the reinvestment terminal growth requires (g/ROIC of NOPAT), and the terminal year carries on from there. The bridge is shown under Terminal Value.

    Current EV/EBITDA of 142.5x sits outside a defensible 3-20x band, so the exit multiple is capped at 20.0x. A multiple that far out usually means EBITDA is the wrong denominator for this business.

    Value Per Share

    Perpetuity growth
    USD 36.54-91.0%
    Exit multiple
    USD 88.12-78.2%
    Market price
    USD 403.82

    Same forecast, different terminal treatment. Percentages vs price.

    Forecast Cashflows

    Reporting currency (USD). Outflows negative.

    0bn6bn13bnFY26FY27FY28FY29FY30FY31FY32FY33FY34FY35
    Nominal FCFFDiscounted to todayUSD
    LineFY26FY27FY28FY29FY30FY31FY32FY33FY34FY35CAGR
    RevenueUSD 107.9bnUSD 122.5bnUSD 137.3bnUSD 152.1bnUSD 166.4bnUSD 179.8bnUSD 191.7bnUSD 201.8bnUSD 209.6bnUSD 214.9bn+8.0%
    EBITUSD 10.6bnUSD 12.0bnUSD 13.5bnUSD 14.9bnUSD 16.3bnUSD 17.6bnUSD 18.8bnUSD 19.8bnUSD 20.6bnUSD 21.1bn+8.0%
    NOPATUSD 8.4bnUSD 9.6bnUSD 10.7bnUSD 11.9bnUSD 13.0bnUSD 14.0bnUSD 15.0bnUSD 15.7bnUSD 16.4bnUSD 16.8bn+8.0%
    Add depreciation & amortisationUSD 5.8bnUSD 6.6bnUSD 7.3bnUSD 8.1bnUSD 8.9bnUSD 9.6bnUSD 10.3bnUSD 10.8bnUSD 11.2bnUSD 11.5bn+8.0%
    Less capital expenditureUSD -10.4bnUSD -11.5bnUSD -12.5bnUSD -13.4bnUSD -14.2bnUSD -14.8bnUSD -15.2bnUSD -15.5bnUSD -15.5bnUSD -15.2bn+4.3%
    Capex, % of revenue9.7%9.4%9.1%8.8%8.5%8.2%7.9%7.7%7.4%7.1%-
    Less increase in working capitalUSD -429.2mUSD -480.8mUSD -490.2mUSD -487.4mUSD -470.8mUSD -439.5mUSD -393.0mUSD -332.0mUSD -257.8mUSD -172.6m-9.6%
    Free cashflow to firmUSD 3.3bnUSD 4.2bnUSD 5.1bnUSD 6.1bnUSD 7.2bnUSD 8.4bnUSD 9.6bnUSD 10.7bnUSD 11.8bnUSD 12.8bn+16.1%
    Discount factor0.94850.85320.76750.69040.62110.55870.50260.45210.40670.3658-
    Present valueUSD 3.2bnUSD 3.5bnUSD 3.9bnUSD 4.2bnUSD 4.5bnUSD 4.7bnUSD 4.8bnUSD 4.9bnUSD 4.8bnUSD 4.7bn-
    Present Value Of The ForecastUSD 43.3bn

    Discount Rate

    Source shown per component. All overridable above.

    Risk-free rate4.89%US 10-year Treasury (^TNX), 2026-11-02
    Equity risk premium4.23%Damodaran, January 2026
    Beta1.498Reported 1.743, pulled toward 1.0 (Blume)
    Cost of equity11.23%Risk-free + beta x equity risk premium
    Cost of debt5.29%Risk-free + 40bp, the spread for a AAA rating at 14.3x interest cover. Book interest / average debt was lower, at 2.4%.
    Market capitalisationUSD 1596.2bn99.1% of capital
    Total debtUSD 14.7bn0.9% of capital, book value as a proxy
    Tax rate20.4%Effective, capped at statutory
    WACC11.17%E/V x Re + D/V x Rd x (1 - t)

    Terminal Value

    Perpetuity growth is intrinsic. The exit multiple defaults to the company's current EV/EBITDA, so it answers a different question - what the shares are worth if today's rating holds and EBITDA grows as forecast.

    Perpetuity growth at 2.50%

    Value per shareUSD 36.54

    57% of EV

    Forecast FCFF, final year
    USD 12.8bn
    Capex at depreciation, working capital in reinvestment
    USD 16.8bn
    Less reinvestment at g/ROIC (22.4% of NOPAT)
    USD -3.8bn
    Capitalised
    USD 13.0bn
    ROIC (WACC floor)
    11.2%
    Terminal value, undiscounted
    USD 153.9bn
    Terminal value, discounted
    USD 56.3bn
    Enterprise value
    USD 99.6bn
    Less net debt
    USD -29.3bn
    Equity value
    USD 128.9bn

    Exit at 20.0x EBITDA

    Value per shareUSD 88.12

    85% of EV

    Terminal value, undiscounted
    USD 651.3bn
    Terminal value, discounted
    USD 238.3bn
    Enterprise value
    USD 281.5bn
    Less net debt
    USD -29.3bn
    Equity value
    USD 310.9bn

    Spread between methods: 83%.

    Sensitivity

    Value per share (USD) by discount rate and long-run growth.

    Long-run growth
    Discount rate1.50%2.00%2.50%3.00%3.50%
    9.17%45.4144.8944.3843.8643.35
    10.17%40.9340.4940.0539.6139.17
    11.17%37.2936.9136.5436.1635.78
    12.17%34.3033.9733.6433.3132.98
    13.17%31.7931.5031.2130.9230.63

    Outlined: this model. Green text: above today's price of 403.82. Shading: distance from this model's own value.

    Priced In

    What each input would have to be to justify the current price, one at a time.

    InputActualModelImplied
    Revenue growth, a year5.2%8.5%44.5%
    Discount rate-11.2%3.2%
    Download as Excel

    Live formulas, not pasted numbers - edit a driver and the workbook reprices.

    Yahoo Finance and RBA data. General information, not advice. Methodology.