DCF Studio

    TSN · NYQ · Consumer Defensive

    Tyson Foods, Inc.

    Also onShortfallConsensus DriftCrosscheck

    Implied value per share

    USD 50.71

    Market price

    USD 57.08

    Implied upside

    -11.2%

    10-year forecast · Perpetuity growth terminal value · Mid-year discounting · Base case · Price 2026-11-02 · Accounts to 2025-09-30

    Value Per Share

    Perpetuity growth
    USD 50.71-11.2%
    Exit multiple
    USD 59.31+3.9%
    Market price
    USD 57.08

    Same forecast, different terminal treatment. Percentages vs price.

    Forecast Cashflows

    Reporting currency (USD). Outflows negative.

    0bn1bn1bnFY26FY27FY28FY29FY30FY31FY32FY33FY34FY35
    Nominal FCFFDiscounted to todayUSD
    LineFY26FY27FY28FY29FY30FY31FY32FY33FY34FY35CAGR
    RevenueUSD 56.2bnUSD 55.4bnUSD 55.0bnUSD 54.8bnUSD 54.8bnUSD 55.1bnUSD 55.7bnUSD 56.6bnUSD 57.7bnUSD 59.2bn+0.6%
    EBITUSD 2.0bnUSD 2.0bnUSD 2.0bnUSD 2.0bnUSD 2.0bnUSD 2.0bnUSD 2.0bnUSD 2.0bnUSD 2.1bnUSD 2.1bn+0.6%
    NOPATUSD 1.6bnUSD 1.6bnUSD 1.6bnUSD 1.5bnUSD 1.5bnUSD 1.6bnUSD 1.6bnUSD 1.6bnUSD 1.6bnUSD 1.7bn+0.6%
    Add depreciation & amortisationUSD 1.4bnUSD 1.4bnUSD 1.4bnUSD 1.4bnUSD 1.4bnUSD 1.4bnUSD 1.4bnUSD 1.4bnUSD 1.4bnUSD 1.5bn+0.6%
    Less capital expenditureUSD -1.6bnUSD -1.6bnUSD -1.6bnUSD -1.6bnUSD -1.6bnUSD -1.7bnUSD -1.7bnUSD -1.8bnUSD -1.8bnUSD -1.9bn+2.3%
    Capex, % of revenue2.8%2.8%2.9%2.9%3.0%3.0%3.1%3.1%3.2%3.2%-
    Less increase in working capitalUSD -177.0mUSD 76.0mUSD 48.1mUSD 21.1mUSD -5.4mUSD -32.0mUSD -58.8mUSD -86.4mUSD -115.1mUSD -145.3m-2.2%
    Free cashflow to firmUSD 1.2bnUSD 1.4bnUSD 1.4bnUSD 1.3bnUSD 1.3bnUSD 1.2bnUSD 1.2bnUSD 1.1bnUSD 1.1bnUSD 1.1bn-1.6%
    Discount factor0.96900.90990.85430.80220.75320.70720.66410.62350.58550.5497-
    Present valueUSD 1.2bnUSD 1.3bnUSD 1.2bnUSD 1.1bnUSD 952.7mUSD 861.3mUSD 781.0mUSD 710.1mUSD 647.3mUSD 591.5m-
    Present Value Of The ForecastUSD 9.3bn

    Discount Rate

    Source shown per component. All overridable above.

    Risk-free rate4.89%US 10-year Treasury (^TNX), 2026-11-02
    Equity risk premium4.23%Damodaran, January 2026
    Beta0.581Reported 0.374, pulled toward 1.0 (Blume)
    Cost of equity7.35%Risk-free + beta x equity risk premium
    Cost of debt5.78%Risk-free + 89bp, the spread for a A- rating at 3.2x interest cover. Book interest / average debt was lower, at 4.8%.
    Market capitalisationUSD 20.1bn69.5% of capital
    Total debtUSD 8.8bn30.5% of capital, book value as a proxy
    Tax rate21.0%Effective, capped at statutory
    WACC6.50%E/V x Re + D/V x Rd x (1 - t)

    Terminal Value

    Perpetuity growth is intrinsic. The exit multiple defaults to the company's current EV/EBITDA, so it answers a different question - what the shares are worth if today's rating holds and EBITDA grows as forecast.

    Perpetuity growth at 2.50%

    Value per shareUSD 50.71

    64% of EV

    Forecast FCFF, final year
    USD 1.1bn
    Capex at depreciation, working capital in reinvestment
    USD 1.9bn
    Less reinvestment at g/ROIC (38.5% of NOPAT)
    USD -726.8m
    Capitalised
    USD 1.2bn
    ROIC (WACC floor)
    6.5%
    Terminal value, undiscounted
    USD 29.8bn
    Terminal value, discounted
    USD 16.4bn
    Enterprise value
    USD 25.7bn
    Less net debt
    USD 7.6bn
    Equity value
    USD 18.1bn

    Exit at 9.9x EBITDA

    Value per shareUSD 59.31

    68% of EV

    Terminal value, undiscounted
    USD 35.4bn
    Terminal value, discounted
    USD 19.4bn
    Enterprise value
    USD 28.7bn
    Less net debt
    USD 7.6bn
    Equity value
    USD 21.1bn

    Spread between methods: 16%.

    Sensitivity

    Value per share (USD) by discount rate and long-run growth.

    Long-run growth
    Discount rate1.50%2.00%2.50%3.00%3.50%
    4.50%86.6784.9783.2681.5679.85
    5.50%66.6465.3364.0162.6961.38
    6.50%52.8251.7750.7149.6648.61
    7.50%42.7241.8540.9940.1239.26
    8.50%35.0234.2933.5732.8532.13

    Outlined: this model. Green text: above today's price of 57.08. Shading: distance from this model's own value.

    Priced In

    What each input would have to be to justify the current price, one at a time.

    InputActualModelImplied
    Revenue growth, a year0.7%0.8%2.0%
    EBIT margin8.3%3.6%3.9%
    Discount rate-6.5%6.0%
    Download as Excel

    Live formulas, not pasted numbers - edit a driver and the workbook reprices.

    Yahoo Finance and RBA data. General information, not advice. Methodology.