DCF Studio

    TTE.PA · PAR · Energy

    TotalEnergies SE

    Also onConsensus Drift

    Implied value per share

    EUR 119.90

    Market price

    EUR 79.32

    Implied upside

    +51.2%

    5-year forecast · Perpetuity growth terminal value · Mid-year discounting · Base case · USD model at 0.8704

    AdjustedReports in USD, trades in EUR. Modelled in USD, converted at the end.
    NoteRisk-free rate is an assumption: EUR assumption - no free live source available for this market.

    Value Per Share

    Perpetuity growth
    EUR 119.90+51.2%
    Exit multiple
    EUR 49.58-37.5%
    Market price
    EUR 79.32

    Same forecast, different terminal treatment. Percentages vs price.

    Forecast Cashflows

    Reporting currency (USD). Outflows negative.

    0bn8bn17bnFY26FY27FY28FY29FY30
    Nominal FCFFDiscounted to todayUSD
    LineFY26FY27FY28FY29FY30CAGR
    RevenueUSD 161.3bnUSD 142.7bnUSD 126.3bnUSD 111.7bnUSD 98.8bn-11.5%
    EBITUSD 22.7bnUSD 20.1bnUSD 17.7bnUSD 15.7bnUSD 13.9bn-11.5%
    NOPATUSD 16.8bnUSD 14.9bnUSD 13.2bnUSD 11.7bnUSD 10.3bn-11.5%
    Add depreciation & amortisationUSD 10.4bnUSD 9.2bnUSD 8.1bnUSD 7.2bnUSD 6.4bn-11.5%
    Less capital expenditureUSD -12.5bnUSD -11.1bnUSD -9.8bnUSD -8.7bnUSD -7.7bn-11.5%
    Less increase in working capitalUSD 2.1bnUSD 1.9bnUSD 1.7bnUSD 1.5bnUSD 1.3bn+11.5%
    Free cashflow to firmUSD 16.9bnUSD 14.9bnUSD 13.2bnUSD 11.7bnUSD 10.3bn-11.5%
    Discount factor0.97630.93070.88710.84560.8061-
    Present valueUSD 16.5bnUSD 13.9bnUSD 11.7bnUSD 9.9bnUSD 8.3bn-15.7%
    Present Value Of The ForecastUSD 60.3bn

    Discount Rate

    Source shown per component. All overridable above.

    Risk-free rate3.20%EUR assumption - no free live source available for this market (assumption)
    Equity risk premium6.00%Market assumption
    Beta0.370Reported 0.060, pulled toward 1.0 (Blume)
    Cost of equity5.42%Risk-free + beta x equity risk premium
    Cost of debt4.60%Interest expense / average total debt
    Market capitalisationUSD 175.2bn74.5% of capital
    Total debtUSD 60.1bn25.5% of capital, book value as a proxy
    Tax rate25.8%Effective, capped at statutory
    WACC4.91%E/V x Re + D/V x Rd x (1 - t)

    Terminal Value

    Perpetuity growth is intrinsic. The exit multiple defaults to the company's current EV/EBITDA, so it answers a different question - what the shares are worth if today's rating holds and EBITDA grows as forecast.

    Perpetuity growth at 2.50%

    Value per shareUSD 137.75

    82% of EV

    Forecast FCFF, final year
    USD 10.3bn
    Capex at depreciation, working capital in reinvestment
    USD 10.3bn
    Less reinvestment at g/ROIC (20.2% of NOPAT)
    USD -2.1bn
    Capitalised
    USD 8.2bn
    ROIC (reported)
    12.4%
    Terminal value, undiscounted
    USD 350.2bn
    Terminal value, discounted
    USD 282.3bn
    Enterprise value
    USD 342.5bn
    Less net debt
    USD 32.9bn
    Equity value
    USD 309.6bn

    Exit at 6.2x EBITDA

    Value per shareUSD 56.96

    63% of EV

    Terminal value, undiscounted
    USD 124.9bn
    Terminal value, discounted
    USD 100.7bn
    Enterprise value
    USD 160.9bn
    Less net debt
    USD 32.9bn
    Equity value
    USD 128.0bn

    Spread between methods: 83%.

    Sensitivity

    Value per share (USD) by discount rate and long-run growth.

    Long-run growth
    Discount rate1.50%2.00%2.50%3.00%3.50%
    2.91%268.72393.05821.86——
    3.91%155.70185.73236.98344.50715.30
    4.91%108.93120.89137.75163.38207.10
    5.91%83.3189.1496.65106.69120.84
    6.91%67.1170.2774.1278.9185.08

    Outlined: this model. Green text: above today's price of 91.13. Shading: distance from this model's own value.

    Priced In

    What each input would have to be to justify the current price, one at a time.

    InputModelImpliedGap
    Revenue growth, every year-11.5%-18.7%-7.2pp
    EBIT margin14.1%9.8%-4.3pp
    Discount rate4.9%6.1%+1.2pp
    Download as Excel

    Live formulas, not pasted numbers - edit a driver and the workbook reprices.

    Yahoo Finance and RBA data. General information, not advice. Methodology.