U14.SI · SES · Real Estate
UOL Group Limited
Also onConsensus Drift
Implied value per share
SGD 8.03
Market price
SGD 8.45
Implied upside
-5.0%
5-year forecast · Perpetuity growth terminal value · Mid-year discounting · Base case
Value Per Share
Same forecast, different terminal treatment. Percentages vs price.
Forecast Cashflows
Reporting currency (SGD). Outflows negative.
| Line | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | CAGR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | SGD 3.2bn | SGD 3.3bn | SGD 3.3bn | SGD 3.3bn | SGD 3.3bn | +0.3% |
| EBIT | SGD 782.1m | SGD 784.8m | SGD 787.4m | SGD 790.0m | SGD 792.7m | +0.3% |
| NOPAT | SGD 668.9m | SGD 671.1m | SGD 673.4m | SGD 675.6m | SGD 677.9m | +0.3% |
| Add depreciation & amortisation | SGD 142.7m | SGD 143.2m | SGD 143.7m | SGD 144.2m | SGD 144.6m | +0.3% |
| Less capital expenditure | SGD -195.4m | SGD -196.0m | SGD -196.7m | SGD -197.3m | SGD -198.0m | +0.3% |
| Less increase in working capital | SGD 10.9m | SGD 10.9m | SGD 10.9m | SGD 11.0m | SGD 11.0m | -0.3% |
| Free cashflow to firm | SGD 627.1m | SGD 629.2m | SGD 631.3m | SGD 633.4m | SGD 635.6m | +0.3% |
| Discount factor | 0.9673 | 0.9051 | 0.8469 | 0.7924 | 0.7414 | - |
| Present value | SGD 606.6m | SGD 569.5m | SGD 534.6m | SGD 501.9m | SGD 471.2m | -6.1% |
| Present Value Of The Forecast | SGD 2.7bn | |||||
Discount Rate
Source shown per component. All overridable above.
| Risk-free rate | 4.20% | USD assumption - no free live source available for this market (assumption) |
| Equity risk premium | 6.50% | Market assumption |
| Beta | 0.739 | Reported 0.611, pulled toward 1.0 (Blume) |
| Cost of equity | 9.01% | Risk-free + beta x equity risk premium |
| Cost of debt | 4.20% | Floored at the risk-free rate (implied cost of debt was lower) |
| Market capitalisation | SGD 7.2bn | 60.6% of capital |
| Total debt | SGD 4.7bn | 39.4% of capital, book value as a proxy |
| Tax rate | 14.5% | Effective, capped at statutory |
| WACC | 6.87% | E/V x Re + D/V x Rd x (1 - t) |
Terminal Value
Perpetuity growth is intrinsic. The exit multiple defaults to the company's current EV/EBITDA, so it answers a different question - what the shares are worth if today's rating holds and EBITDA grows as forecast.
Perpetuity growth at 2.50%
74% of EV
- Forecast FCFF, final year
- SGD 635.6m
- Capex at depreciation, working capital in reinvestment
- SGD 678.6m
- Less reinvestment at g/ROIC (36.4% of NOPAT)
- SGD -246.8m
- Capitalised
- SGD 431.8m
- ROIC (WACC floor)
- 6.9%
- Terminal value, undiscounted
- SGD 10.1bn
- Terminal value, discounted
- SGD 7.5bn
- Enterprise value
- SGD 10.2bn
- Less net debt
- SGD 3.4bn
- Equity value
- SGD 6.8bn
Exit at 11.2x EBITDA
74% of EV
- Terminal value, undiscounted
- SGD 10.5bn
- Terminal value, discounted
- SGD 7.8bn
- Enterprise value
- SGD 10.4bn
- Less net debt
- SGD 3.4bn
- Equity value
- SGD 7.0bn
Spread between methods: 4%.
Sensitivity
Value per share (SGD) by discount rate and long-run growth.
| Long-run growth | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount rate | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
| 4.87% | 12.79 | 12.86 | 12.93 | 12.99 | 13.06 |
| 5.87% | 9.95 | 10.00 | 10.06 | 10.11 | 10.16 |
| 6.87% | 7.94 | 7.98 | 8.03 | 8.07 | 8.11 |
| 7.87% | 6.44 | 6.47 | 6.51 | 6.55 | 6.58 |
| 8.87% | 5.28 | 5.31 | 5.34 | 5.37 | 5.40 |
Outlined: this model. Green text: above today's price of 8.45. Shading: distance from this model's own value.
Priced In
What each input would have to be to justify the current price, one at a time.
| Input | Model | Implied | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue growth, every year | 0.3% | 0.9% | +0.6pp |
| EBIT margin | 24.1% | 24.9% | +0.8pp |
| Discount rate | 6.9% | 6.6% | -0.2pp |
Live formulas, not pasted numbers - edit a driver and the workbook reprices.
Yahoo Finance and RBA data. General information, not advice. Methodology.