U96.SI · SES · Utilities
Sembcorp Industries Ltd
Also onConsensus Drift
Implied value per share
SGD -0.20
Market price
SGD 5.90
Implied upside
-103.4%
5-year forecast · Perpetuity growth terminal value · Mid-year discounting · Base case
Value Per Share
Same forecast, different terminal treatment. Percentages vs price.
Forecast Cashflows
Reporting currency (SGD). Outflows negative.
| Line | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | CAGR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | SGD 5.2bn | SGD 4.7bn | SGD 4.3bn | SGD 3.9bn | SGD 3.5bn | -9.5% |
| EBIT | SGD 743.8m | SGD 673.1m | SGD 609.1m | SGD 551.2m | SGD 498.8m | -9.5% |
| NOPAT | SGD 629.4m | SGD 569.6m | SGD 515.5m | SGD 466.5m | SGD 422.1m | -9.5% |
| Add depreciation & amortisation | SGD 360.7m | SGD 326.5m | SGD 295.4m | SGD 267.3m | SGD 241.9m | -9.5% |
| Less capital expenditure | SGD -805.3m | SGD -728.7m | SGD -659.4m | SGD -596.8m | SGD -540.0m | -9.5% |
| Less increase in working capital | SGD -11.3m | SGD -10.2m | SGD -9.2m | SGD -8.3m | SGD -7.6m | -9.5% |
| Free cashflow to firm | SGD 173.7m | SGD 157.2m | SGD 142.2m | SGD 128.7m | SGD 116.5m | -9.5% |
| Discount factor | 0.9752 | 0.9273 | 0.8818 | 0.8386 | 0.7974 | - |
| Present value | SGD 169.4m | SGD 145.7m | SGD 125.4m | SGD 107.9m | SGD 92.9m | -13.9% |
| Present Value Of The Forecast | SGD 641.3m | |||||
Discount Rate
Source shown per component. All overridable above.
| Risk-free rate | 4.20% | USD assumption - no free live source available for this market (assumption) |
| Equity risk premium | 6.50% | Market assumption |
| Beta | 0.376 | Reported 0.068, pulled toward 1.0 (Blume) |
| Cost of equity | 6.64% | Risk-free + beta x equity risk premium |
| Cost of debt | 4.20% | Floored at the risk-free rate (implied cost of debt was lower) |
| Market capitalisation | SGD 10.5bn | 52.0% of capital |
| Total debt | SGD 9.7bn | 48.0% of capital, book value as a proxy |
| Tax rate | 15.4% | Effective, capped at statutory |
| WACC | 5.16% | E/V x Re + D/V x Rd x (1 - t) |
Terminal Value
Perpetuity growth is intrinsic. The exit multiple defaults to the company's current EV/EBITDA, so it answers a different question - what the shares are worth if today's rating holds and EBITDA grows as forecast.
Perpetuity growth at 2.50%
92% of EV
- Forecast FCFF, final year
- SGD 116.5m
- Capex at depreciation, working capital in reinvestment
- SGD 422.1m
- Less reinvestment at g/ROIC (42.2% of NOPAT)
- SGD -178.3m
- Capitalised
- SGD 243.8m
- ROIC (reported)
- 5.9%
- Terminal value, undiscounted
- SGD 9.4bn
- Terminal value, discounted
- SGD 7.5bn
- Enterprise value
- SGD 8.1bn
- Less net debt
- SGD 8.5bn
- Equity value
- SGD -363.2m
Exit at 14.2x EBITDA
93% of EV
- Terminal value, undiscounted
- SGD 10.5bn
- Terminal value, discounted
- SGD 8.4bn
- Enterprise value
- SGD 9.0bn
- Less net debt
- SGD 8.5bn
- Equity value
- SGD 525.7m
Sensitivity
Value per share (SGD) by discount rate and long-run growth.
| Long-run growth | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount rate | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
| 3.16% | 4.97 | 7.53 | 13.98 | 60.85 | — |
| 4.16% | 1.21 | 1.75 | 2.61 | 4.20 | 8.18 |
| 5.16% | -0.49 | -0.37 | -0.20 | 0.03 | 0.40 |
| 6.16% | -1.42 | -1.41 | -1.39 | -1.38 | -1.36 |
| 7.16% | -1.94 | -1.93 | -1.92 | -1.91 | -1.90 |
Outlined: this model. Green text: above today's price of 5.90. Shading: distance from this model's own value.
Priced In
What each input would have to be to justify the current price, one at a time.
| Input | Model | Implied | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue growth, every year | -9.5% | 7.8% | +17.3pp |
| EBIT margin | 14.2% | 30.0% | +15.8pp |
| Discount rate | 5.2% | 3.7% | -1.5pp |
Live formulas, not pasted numbers - edit a driver and the workbook reprices.
Yahoo Finance and RBA data. General information, not advice. Methodology.