DCF Studio

    UBER · NYQ · Technology

    Uber Technologies, Inc.

    Also onShortfallConsensus DriftCrosscheck

    Implied value per share

    USD 12.86

    Market price

    USD 66.71

    Implied upside

    -80.7%

    10-year forecast · Perpetuity growth terminal value · Mid-year discounting · Base case · Price 2026-11-02 · Accounts to 2025-12-31

    AdjustedReported capital expenditure averages just 0.65% of revenue, which is too low to be the company's real investment - property trusts and similar structures invest through lines that are not reported as capex. Capex has been set to 2.07% of revenue so the forecast is not handed free growth. The accounts do not separate depreciation from amortisation, so the combined charge is used - if a large part of it is amortisation of an acquisition, the reported capex is probably right and this substitution is not. Override it if the reported figure is right.

    Current EV/EBITDA of 22.3x sits outside a defensible 3-20x band, so the exit multiple is capped at 20.0x. A multiple that far out usually means EBITDA is the wrong denominator for this business.

    Value Per Share

    Perpetuity growth
    USD 12.86-80.7%
    Exit multiple
    USD 32.05-52.0%
    Market price
    USD 66.71

    Same forecast, different terminal treatment. Percentages vs price.

    Forecast Cashflows

    Reporting currency (USD). Outflows negative.

    0bn1bn3bnFY26FY27FY28FY29FY30FY31FY32FY33FY34FY35
    Nominal FCFFDiscounted to todayUSD
    LineFY26FY27FY28FY29FY30FY31FY32FY33FY34FY35CAGR
    RevenueUSD 57.9bnUSD 66.7bnUSD 75.9bnUSD 85.1bnUSD 94.1bnUSD 102.5bnUSD 110.0bnUSD 116.2bnUSD 121.0bnUSD 124.0bn+8.8%
    EBITUSD 2.1bnUSD 2.4bnUSD 2.7bnUSD 3.0bnUSD 3.4bnUSD 3.7bnUSD 3.9bnUSD 4.2bnUSD 4.3bnUSD 4.4bn+8.8%
    NOPATUSD 1.9bnUSD 2.2bnUSD 2.5bnUSD 2.8bnUSD 3.1bnUSD 3.3bnUSD 3.6bnUSD 3.8bnUSD 3.9bnUSD 4.0bn+8.8%
    Add depreciation & amortisationUSD 1.2bnUSD 1.4bnUSD 1.6bnUSD 1.8bnUSD 1.9bnUSD 2.1bnUSD 2.3bnUSD 2.4bnUSD 2.5bnUSD 2.6bn+8.8%
    Less capital expenditureUSD -1.2bnUSD -1.4bnUSD -1.7bnUSD -2.0bnUSD -2.3bnUSD -2.6bnUSD -2.9bnUSD -3.2bnUSD -3.4bnUSD -3.6bn+13.1%
    Capex, % of revenue2.1%2.2%2.3%2.4%2.4%2.5%2.6%2.7%2.8%2.9%-
    Less increase in working capitalUSD -351.9mUSD -535.4mUSD -553.0mUSD -555.5mUSD -540.4mUSD -506.2mUSD -452.2mUSD -378.8mUSD -287.8mUSD -182.5m-7.0%
    Free cashflow to firmUSD 1.5bnUSD 1.6bnUSD 1.8bnUSD 2.0bnUSD 2.2bnUSD 2.3bnUSD 2.5bnUSD 2.6bnUSD 2.7bnUSD 2.8bn+6.9%
    Discount factor0.95530.87180.79570.72610.66270.60480.55190.50370.45970.4195-
    Present valueUSD 1.5bnUSD 1.4bnUSD 1.4bnUSD 1.4bnUSD 1.4bnUSD 1.4bnUSD 1.4bnUSD 1.3bnUSD 1.3bnUSD 1.2bn-
    Present Value Of The ForecastUSD 13.6bn

    Discount Rate

    Source shown per component. All overridable above.

    Risk-free rate4.89%US 10-year Treasury (^TNX), 2026-11-02
    Equity risk premium4.23%Damodaran, January 2026
    Beta1.206Reported 1.308, pulled toward 1.0 (Blume)
    Cost of equity10.00%Risk-free + beta x equity risk premium
    Cost of debt5.29%Risk-free + 40bp, the spread for a AAA rating at 12.6x interest cover. Book interest / average debt was lower, at 3.8%.
    Market capitalisationUSD 136.3bn91.9% of capital
    Total debtUSD 12.1bn8.1% of capital, book value as a proxy
    Tax rate9.2%Effective, capped at statutory
    WACC9.57%E/V x Re + D/V x Rd x (1 - t)

    Terminal Value

    Perpetuity growth is intrinsic. The exit multiple defaults to the company's current EV/EBITDA, so it answers a different question - what the shares are worth if today's rating holds and EBITDA grows as forecast.

    Perpetuity growth at 2.50%

    Value per shareUSD 12.86

    57% of EV

    Forecast FCFF, final year
    USD 2.8bn
    Capex at depreciation, working capital in reinvestment
    USD 4.0bn
    Less reinvestment at g/ROIC (26.1% of NOPAT)
    USD -1.1bn
    Capitalised
    USD 3.0bn
    ROIC (WACC floor)
    9.6%
    Terminal value, undiscounted
    USD 43.1bn
    Terminal value, discounted
    USD 18.1bn
    Enterprise value
    USD 31.7bn
    Less net debt
    USD 4.4bn
    Equity value
    USD 27.3bn

    Exit at 20.0x EBITDA

    Value per shareUSD 32.05

    81% of EV

    Terminal value, undiscounted
    USD 140.1bn
    Terminal value, discounted
    USD 58.8bn
    Enterprise value
    USD 72.4bn
    Less net debt
    USD 4.4bn
    Equity value
    USD 67.9bn

    Spread between methods: 85%.

    Sensitivity

    Value per share (USD) by discount rate and long-run growth.

    Long-run growth
    Discount rate1.50%2.00%2.50%3.00%3.50%
    7.57%18.2918.1518.0417.9517.91
    8.57%15.3215.1014.8714.6514.42
    9.57%13.2413.0512.8612.6712.48
    10.57%11.5711.4111.2411.0810.92
    11.57%10.2010.069.929.789.64

    Outlined: this model. Green text: above today's price of 66.71. Shading: distance from this model's own value.

    Priced In

    What each input would have to be to justify the current price, one at a time.

    InputActualModelImplied
    Revenue growth, a year17.7%9.1%30.5%
    EBIT margin10.7%3.6%15.3%
    Discount rate-9.6%4.0%
    Download as Excel

    Live formulas, not pasted numbers - edit a driver and the workbook reprices.

    Yahoo Finance and RBA data. General information, not advice. Methodology.