DCF Studio

    UDR · NYQ · Real Estate

    UDR, Inc.

    Also onShortfallConsensus DriftCrosscheck

    Implied value per share

    USD -5.68

    Market price

    USD 35.91

    Implied upside

    -115.8%

    10-year forecast · Perpetuity growth terminal value · Mid-year discounting · Base case · Price 2026-11-02 · Accounts to 2025-12-31

    AdjustedReported capital expenditure averages 16.97% of revenue against depreciation and amortisation of 42.15%. A business cannot depreciate more than it invests indefinitely. Capex has been set to 42.15% of revenue so the forecast is not handed free growth. The accounts do not separate depreciation from amortisation, so the combined charge is used - if a large part of it is amortisation of an acquisition, the reported capex is probably right and this substitution is not. Override it if the reported figure is right.

    Value Per Share

    Perpetuity growth
    USD -5.68-115.8%
    Exit multiple
    USD 23.01-35.9%
    Market price
    USD 35.91

    Same forecast, different terminal treatment. Percentages vs price.

    Forecast Cashflows

    Reporting currency (USD). Outflows negative.

    0m150m299mFY26FY27FY28FY29FY30FY31FY32FY33FY34FY35
    Nominal FCFFDiscounted to todayUSD
    LineFY26FY27FY28FY29FY30FY31FY32FY33FY34FY35CAGR
    RevenueUSD 1.7bnUSD 1.7bnUSD 1.8bnUSD 1.8bnUSD 1.9bnUSD 1.9bnUSD 2.0bnUSD 2.0bnUSD 2.1bnUSD 2.1bn+2.6%
    EBITUSD 292.2mUSD 299.8mUSD 307.6mUSD 315.5mUSD 323.6mUSD 331.9mUSD 340.3mUSD 348.9mUSD 357.7mUSD 366.6m+2.6%
    NOPATUSD 291.0mUSD 298.6mUSD 306.3mUSD 314.2mUSD 322.3mUSD 330.5mUSD 338.9mUSD 347.5mUSD 356.2mUSD 365.1m+2.6%
    Add depreciation & amortisationUSD 715.4mUSD 734.0mUSD 753.0mUSD 772.4mUSD 792.3mUSD 812.5mUSD 833.1mUSD 854.2mUSD 875.6mUSD 897.5m+2.6%
    Less capital expenditureUSD -715.4mUSD -744.6mUSD -774.8mUSD -805.9mUSD -838.0mUSD -871.2mUSD -905.3mUSD -940.5mUSD -976.8mUSD -1.0bn+4.0%
    Capex, % of revenue42.2%42.8%43.4%44.0%44.6%45.2%45.8%46.4%47.0%47.6%-
    Less increase in working capitalUSD 8.4mUSD -24.3mUSD -24.8mUSD -25.3mUSD -25.9mUSD -26.4mUSD -26.9mUSD -27.5mUSD -28.0mUSD -28.6m-
    Free cashflow to firmUSD 299.4mUSD 263.7mUSD 259.7mUSD 255.4mUSD 250.6mUSD 245.4mUSD 239.8mUSD 233.6mUSD 227.0mUSD 219.8m-3.4%
    Discount factor0.96300.89320.82840.76830.71260.66090.61290.56850.52720.4890-
    Present valueUSD 288.3mUSD 235.5mUSD 215.2mUSD 196.2mUSD 178.6mUSD 162.2mUSD 147.0mUSD 132.8mUSD 119.7mUSD 107.5m-
    Present Value Of The ForecastUSD 1.8bn

    Discount Rate

    Source shown per component. All overridable above.

    Risk-free rate4.89%US 10-year Treasury (^TNX), 2026-11-02
    Equity risk premium4.23%Damodaran, January 2026
    Beta0.795Reported 0.694, pulled toward 1.0 (Blume)
    Cost of equity8.26%Risk-free + beta x equity risk premium
    Cost of debt6.89%Risk-free + 200bp, the spread for a B rating at 1.6x interest cover, capped at 200bp because one year's cover is too noisy to charge more. Book interest / average debt was lower, at 3.3%.
    Market capitalisationUSD 13.2bn68.7% of capital
    Total debtUSD 6.0bn31.3% of capital, book value as a proxy
    Tax rate0.4%Effective, capped at statutory
    WACC7.82%E/V x Re + D/V x Rd x (1 - t)

    Terminal Value

    Perpetuity growth is intrinsic. The exit multiple defaults to the company's current EV/EBITDA, so it answers a different question - what the shares are worth if today's rating holds and EBITDA grows as forecast.

    Perpetuity growth at 2.50%

    Value per shareUSD -5.68

    57% of EV

    Forecast FCFF, final year
    USD 219.8m
    Capex at depreciation, working capital in reinvestment
    USD 365.1m
    Less reinvestment at g/ROIC (32.0% of NOPAT)
    USD -116.7m
    Capitalised
    USD 248.4m
    ROIC (WACC floor)
    7.8%
    Terminal value, undiscounted
    USD 4.8bn
    Terminal value, discounted
    USD 2.3bn
    Enterprise value
    USD 4.1bn
    Less net debt
    USD 6.0bn
    Equity value
    USD -1.9bn

    Exit at 19.1x EBITDA

    Value per shareUSD 23.01

    87% of EV

    Terminal value, undiscounted
    USD 24.2bn
    Terminal value, discounted
    USD 11.8bn
    Enterprise value
    USD 13.6bn
    Less net debt
    USD 6.0bn
    Equity value
    USD 7.6bn

    Sensitivity

    Value per share (USD) by discount rate and long-run growth.

    Long-run growth
    Discount rate1.50%2.00%2.50%3.00%3.50%
    5.82%-0.85-1.10-1.35-1.59-1.84
    6.82%-3.44-3.64-3.84-4.03-4.23
    7.82%-5.35-5.52-5.68-5.84-6.01
    8.82%-6.83-6.97-7.10-7.24-7.38
    9.82%-8.00-8.11-8.23-8.35-8.47

    Outlined: this model. Green text: above today's price of 35.91. Shading: distance from this model's own value.

    Priced In

    What each input would have to be to justify the current price, one at a time.

    InputActualModelImplied
    Revenue growth, a year4.1%2.2%23.2%
    EBIT margin18.8%17.2%72.7%
    Discount rate-7.8%2.8%
    Download as Excel

    Live formulas, not pasted numbers - edit a driver and the workbook reprices.

    Yahoo Finance and RBA data. General information, not advice. Methodology.