DCF Studio

    UNI.MC · MCE · Financial Services

    Unicaja Banco, S.A.

    Also onConsensus Drift

    Implied value per share

    EUR 4.63

    Market price

    EUR 3.60

    Implied upside

    +28.7%

    5-year forecast · Perpetuity growth terminal value · Mid-year discounting · Base case

    Wrong toolThis is a financial. Banks and insurers report no meaningful operating income, and capex and working capital do not mean what a free-cashflow model assumes, so a DCF will misprice it. The model below runs on best-effort numbers - treat it as an illustration, not a valuation.
    NoteRisk-free rate is an assumption: USD assumption - no free live source available for this market.

    Value Per Share

    Perpetuity growth
    EUR 4.63+28.7%
    Exit multiple
    EUR 4.07+13.2%
    Market price
    EUR 3.60

    Same forecast, different terminal treatment. Percentages vs price.

    Forecast Cashflows

    Reporting currency (EUR). Outflows negative.

    0m424m849mFY26FY27FY28FY29FY30
    Nominal FCFFDiscounted to todayEUR
    LineFY26FY27FY28FY29FY30CAGR
    RevenueEUR 2.2bnEUR 2.4bnEUR 2.5bnEUR 2.7bnEUR 2.9bn+6.4%
    EBITEUR 680.6mEUR 724.0mEUR 770.0mEUR 819.0mEUR 871.2m+6.4%
    NOPATEUR 510.5mEUR 543.0mEUR 577.5mEUR 614.3mEUR 653.4m+6.4%
    Add depreciation & amortisationEUR 101.7mEUR 108.2mEUR 115.1mEUR 122.4mEUR 130.2m+6.4%
    Less capital expenditureEUR -82.5mEUR -87.7mEUR -93.3mEUR -99.3mEUR -105.6m+6.4%
    Less increase in working capitalEUR 133.5mEUR 142.0mEUR 151.0mEUR 160.6mEUR 170.9m-6.4%
    Free cashflow to firmEUR 663.2mEUR 705.4mEUR 750.3mEUR 798.1mEUR 848.9m+6.4%
    Discount factor0.96680.90370.84470.78960.7380-
    Present valueEUR 641.2mEUR 637.5mEUR 633.8mEUR 630.1mEUR 626.5m-0.6%
    Present Value Of The ForecastEUR 3.2bn

    Discount Rate

    Source shown per component. All overridable above.

    Risk-free rate4.20%USD assumption - no free live source available for this market (assumption)
    Equity risk premium6.50%Market assumption
    Beta0.588Reported 0.385, pulled toward 1.0 (Blume)
    Cost of equity8.02%Risk-free + beta x equity risk premium
    Cost of debt6.20%Implied cost of debt of 19.9% is not a credible funding cost, so risk-free + 2bp is assumed instead. Interest expense and reported debt are measuring different things - common for banks, whose interest expense includes deposits that total debt excludes.
    Market capitalisationEUR 9.2bn69.2% of capital
    Total debtEUR 4.1bn30.8% of capital, book value as a proxy
    Tax rate25.0%Effective, capped at statutory
    WACC6.98%E/V x Re + D/V x Rd x (1 - t)

    Terminal Value

    Perpetuity growth is intrinsic. The exit multiple defaults to the company's current EV/EBITDA, so it answers a different question - what the shares are worth if today's rating holds and EBITDA grows as forecast.

    Perpetuity growth at 2.50%

    Value per shareEUR 4.63

    69% of EV

    Forecast FCFF, final year
    EUR 848.9m
    Capex at depreciation, working capital in reinvestment
    EUR 653.4m
    Less reinvestment at g/ROIC (35.8% of NOPAT)
    EUR -233.9m
    Capitalised
    EUR 419.5m
    ROIC (WACC floor)
    7.0%
    Terminal value, undiscounted
    EUR 9.6bn
    Terminal value, discounted
    EUR 7.1bn
    Enterprise value
    EUR 10.2bn
    Less net debt
    EUR -1.6bn
    Equity value
    EUR 11.9bn

    Exit at 7.6x EBITDA

    Value per shareEUR 4.07

    64% of EV

    Terminal value, undiscounted
    EUR 7.7bn
    Terminal value, discounted
    EUR 5.6bn
    Enterprise value
    EUR 8.8bn
    Less net debt
    EUR -1.6bn
    Equity value
    EUR 10.5bn

    Spread between methods: 13%.

    Sensitivity

    Value per share (EUR) by discount rate and long-run growth.

    Long-run growth
    Discount rate1.50%2.00%2.50%3.00%3.50%
    4.98%6.106.126.146.166.18
    5.98%5.235.245.265.285.29
    6.98%4.604.624.634.644.66
    7.98%4.144.154.164.174.18
    8.98%3.773.783.793.803.81

    Outlined: this model. Green text: above today's price of 3.60. Shading: distance from this model's own value.

    Priced In

    What each input would have to be to justify the current price, one at a time.

    InputModelImpliedGap
    Revenue growth, every year6.4%0.7%-5.7pp
    EBIT margin30.5%22.0%-8.5pp
    Discount rate7.0%9.6%+2.6pp
    Download as Excel

    Live formulas, not pasted numbers - edit a driver and the workbook reprices.

    Yahoo Finance and RBA data. General information, not advice. Methodology.