DCF Studio

    UNI.MI · MIL · Financial Services

    Unipol Assicurazioni S.p.A.

    Also onConsensus Drift

    Implied value per share

    EUR 102.80

    Market price

    EUR 27.59

    Implied upside

    +272.6%

    5-year forecast · Perpetuity growth terminal value · Mid-year discounting · Base case

    Wrong toolThis is a financial. Banks and insurers report no meaningful operating income, and capex and working capital do not mean what a free-cashflow model assumes, so a DCF will misprice it. The model below runs on best-effort numbers - treat it as an illustration, not a valuation.
    AdjustedConsensus rests on as few as 1 analyst estimate(s).
    AdjustedCapital expenditure runs at 7.4% of revenue against depreciation of 0.4%. A perpetuity has to be a steady state, so the terminal year uses maintenance capex at depreciation and then charges the reinvestment terminal growth requires (g/ROIC of NOPAT). The bridge is shown under Terminal Value.
    NoteRisk-free rate is an assumption: USD assumption - no free live source available for this market.

    No usable EV/EBITDA (EBITDA is not positive), so the exit multiple falls back to 8x.

    Value Per Share

    Perpetuity growth
    EUR 102.80+272.6%
    Exit multiple
    EUR 97.21+252.3%
    Market price
    EUR 27.59

    Same forecast, different terminal treatment. Percentages vs price.

    Forecast Cashflows

    Reporting currency (EUR). Outflows negative.

    0bn1bn3bnFY26FY27FY28FY29FY30
    Nominal FCFFDiscounted to todayEUR
    LineFY26FY27FY28FY29FY30CAGR
    RevenueEUR 15.2bnEUR 16.9bnEUR 18.8bnEUR 20.9bnEUR 23.2bn+11.1%
    EBITEUR 1.8bnEUR 2.0bnEUR 2.2bnEUR 2.4bnEUR 2.7bn+11.1%
    NOPATEUR 1.4bnEUR 1.6bnEUR 1.8bnEUR 2.0bnEUR 2.2bn+11.1%
    Add depreciation & amortisationEUR 66.6mEUR 74.0mEUR 82.2mEUR 91.3mEUR 101.4m+11.1%
    Less capital expenditureEUR -1.1bnEUR -1.2bnEUR -1.4bnEUR -1.5bnEUR -1.7bn+11.1%
    Less increase in working capitalEUR 1.5bnEUR 1.7bnEUR 1.9bnEUR 2.1bnEUR 2.3bn-11.1%
    Free cashflow to firmEUR 1.9bnEUR 2.1bnEUR 2.3bnEUR 2.6bnEUR 2.9bn+11.1%
    Discount factor0.96170.88940.82260.76080.7036-
    Present valueEUR 1.8bnEUR 1.9bnEUR 1.9bnEUR 2.0bnEUR 2.0bn+2.7%
    Present Value Of The ForecastEUR 9.6bn

    Discount Rate

    Source shown per component. All overridable above.

    Risk-free rate4.20%USD assumption - no free live source available for this market (assumption)
    Equity risk premium6.50%Market assumption
    Beta0.725Reported 0.589, pulled toward 1.0 (Blume)
    Cost of equity8.91%Risk-free + beta x equity risk premium
    Cost of debt6.20%Assumed: risk-free + 2bp (interest expense not reported)
    Market capitalisationEUR 19.8bn79.8% of capital
    Total debtEUR 5.0bn20.2% of capital, book value as a proxy
    Tax rate18.9%Effective, capped at statutory
    WACC8.13%E/V x Re + D/V x Rd x (1 - t)

    Terminal Value

    Perpetuity growth is intrinsic. The exit multiple defaults to the company's current EV/EBITDA, so it answers a different question - what the shares are worth if today's rating holds and EBITDA grows as forecast.

    Perpetuity growth at 2.50%

    Value per shareEUR 102.80

    67% of EV

    Forecast FCFF, final year
    EUR 2.9bn
    Capex at depreciation, working capital in reinvestment
    EUR 2.2bn
    Less reinvestment at g/ROIC (29.5% of NOPAT)
    EUR -643.3m
    Capitalised
    EUR 1.5bn
    ROIC (reported)
    8.5%
    Terminal value, undiscounted
    EUR 28.0bn
    Terminal value, discounted
    EUR 19.7bn
    Enterprise value
    EUR 29.3bn
    Less net debt
    EUR -44.2bn
    Equity value
    EUR 73.5bn

    Exit at 8.0x EBITDA

    Value per shareEUR 97.21

    62% of EV

    Terminal value, undiscounted
    EUR 22.3bn
    Terminal value, discounted
    EUR 15.7bn
    Enterprise value
    EUR 25.3bn
    Less net debt
    EUR -44.2bn
    Equity value
    EUR 69.5bn

    Spread between methods: 6%.

    Sensitivity

    Value per share (EUR) by discount rate and long-run growth.

    Long-run growth
    Discount rate1.50%2.00%2.50%3.00%3.50%
    6.13%118.05119.98122.42125.58129.90
    7.13%108.79109.58110.52111.65113.06
    8.13%102.29102.54102.80103.09103.42
    9.13%97.8397.9498.0598.1698.28
    10.13%94.4394.5394.6394.7394.82

    Outlined: this model. Green text: above today's price of 27.59. Shading: distance from this model's own value.

    Priced In

    What each input would have to be to justify the current price, one at a time.

    InputModelImpliedGap
    EBIT margin11.6%-42.7%-54.3pp
    Download as Excel

    Live formulas, not pasted numbers - edit a driver and the workbook reprices.

    Yahoo Finance and RBA data. General information, not advice. Methodology.