V03.SI · SES · Technology
Venture Corporation Limited
Also onConsensus Drift
Implied value per share
SGD 14.45
Market price
SGD 14.55
Implied upside
-0.7%
10-year forecast · Perpetuity growth terminal value · Mid-year discounting · Base case · Price 2026-11-03 · Accounts to 2025-12-31
Value Per Share
Same forecast, different terminal treatment. Percentages vs price.
Forecast Cashflows
Reporting currency (SGD). Outflows negative.
| Line | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 | FY32 | FY33 | FY34 | FY35 | CAGR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | SGD 2.7bn | SGD 2.9bn | SGD 3.1bn | SGD 3.3bn | SGD 3.4bn | SGD 3.6bn | SGD 3.7bn | SGD 3.9bn | SGD 4.0bn | SGD 4.1bn | +4.5% |
| EBIT | SGD 276.3m | SGD 294.6m | SGD 312.6m | SGD 330.0m | SGD 346.8m | SGD 362.6m | SGD 377.2m | SGD 390.5m | SGD 402.3m | SGD 412.4m | +4.5% |
| NOPAT | SGD 223.8m | SGD 238.6m | SGD 253.2m | SGD 267.3m | SGD 280.9m | SGD 293.7m | SGD 305.6m | SGD 316.3m | SGD 325.9m | SGD 334.0m | +4.5% |
| Add depreciation & amortisation | SGD 30.4m | SGD 32.4m | SGD 34.4m | SGD 36.3m | SGD 38.1m | SGD 39.9m | SGD 41.5m | SGD 42.9m | SGD 44.2m | SGD 45.3m | +4.5% |
| Less capital expenditure | SGD -28.6m | SGD -38.1m | SGD -48.5m | SGD -59.6m | SGD -71.6m | SGD -84.1m | SGD -97.2m | SGD -110.7m | SGD -124.3m | SGD -138.0m | +19.1% |
| Capex, % of revenue | 1.0% | 1.3% | 1.6% | 1.8% | 2.1% | 2.3% | 2.6% | 2.9% | 3.1% | 3.4% | - |
| Less increase in working capital | SGD -74.3m | SGD -63.5m | SGD -62.4m | SGD -60.6m | SGD -58.1m | SGD -54.9m | SGD -50.9m | SGD -46.2m | SGD -40.9m | SGD -34.9m | -8.0% |
| Free cashflow to firm | SGD 151.3m | SGD 169.5m | SGD 176.7m | SGD 183.4m | SGD 189.3m | SGD 194.6m | SGD 198.9m | SGD 202.4m | SGD 204.9m | SGD 206.4m | +3.5% |
| Discount factor | 0.9580 | 0.8792 | 0.8069 | 0.7405 | 0.6796 | 0.6237 | 0.5724 | 0.5253 | 0.4821 | 0.4424 | - |
| Present value | SGD 145.0m | SGD 149.0m | SGD 142.6m | SGD 135.8m | SGD 128.7m | SGD 121.3m | SGD 113.9m | SGD 106.3m | SGD 98.8m | SGD 91.3m | - |
| Present Value Of The Forecast | SGD 1.2bn | ||||||||||
Discount Rate
Source shown per component. All overridable above.
| Risk-free rate | 4.20% | USD assumption - no free live source available for this market (assumption) |
| Equity risk premium | 6.50% | Damodaran, January 2026 |
| Beta | 0.737 | Reported 0.607, pulled toward 1.0 (Blume) |
| Cost of equity | 8.99% | Risk-free + beta x equity risk premium |
| Cost of debt | 4.60% | Risk-free + 40bp, the spread for a AAA rating at 247.5x interest cover. Book interest / average debt was lower, at 3.9%. |
| Market capitalisation | SGD 4.2bn | 99.5% of capital |
| Total debt | SGD 19.6m | 0.5% of capital, book value as a proxy |
| Tax rate | 19.0% | Effective, capped at statutory |
| WACC | 8.96% | E/V x Re + D/V x Rd x (1 - t) |
Terminal Value
Perpetuity growth is intrinsic. The exit multiple defaults to the company's current EV/EBITDA, so it answers a different question - what the shares are worth if today's rating holds and EBITDA grows as forecast.
Perpetuity growth at 2.50%
58% of EV
- Forecast FCFF, final year
- SGD 206.4m
- Capex at depreciation, working capital in reinvestment
- SGD 334.5m
- Less reinvestment at g/ROIC (27.9% of NOPAT)
- SGD -93.3m
- Capitalised
- SGD 241.2m
- ROIC (WACC floor)
- 9.0%
- Terminal value, undiscounted
- SGD 3.8bn
- Terminal value, discounted
- SGD 1.7bn
- Enterprise value
- SGD 2.9bn
- Less net debt
- SGD -1.3bn
- Equity value
- SGD 4.2bn
Exit at 10.5x EBITDA
63% of EV
- Terminal value, undiscounted
- SGD 4.8bn
- Terminal value, discounted
- SGD 2.1bn
- Enterprise value
- SGD 3.4bn
- Less net debt
- SGD -1.3bn
- Equity value
- SGD 4.6bn
Spread between methods: 10%.
Sensitivity
Value per share (SGD) by discount rate and long-run growth.
| Long-run growth | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount rate | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
| 6.96% | 18.46 | 18.44 | 18.44 | 18.50 | 18.61 |
| 7.96% | 16.18 | 16.02 | 15.86 | 15.70 | 15.54 |
| 8.96% | 14.72 | 14.59 | 14.45 | 14.31 | 14.18 |
| 9.96% | 13.57 | 13.45 | 13.33 | 13.22 | 13.10 |
| 10.96% | 12.63 | 12.53 | 12.43 | 12.33 | 12.23 |
Outlined: this model. Green text: above today's price of 14.55. Shading: distance from this model's own value.
Priced In
What each input would have to be to justify the current price, one at a time.
| Input | Actual | Model | Implied | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue growth, a year | -13.1% | 4.9% | 5.1% | |
| EBIT margin | 11.2% | 10.1% | 10.2% | |
| Discount rate | - | 9.0% | 8.9% |
Live formulas, not pasted numbers - edit a driver and the workbook reprices.
Yahoo Finance and RBA data. General information, not advice. Methodology.