DCF Studio

    VEA.AX · ASX · Energy

    Viva Energy Group Limited

    Also onConsensus Drift

    Implied value per share

    AUD -3.48

    Market price

    AUD 3.12

    Implied upside

    -211.4%

    5-year forecast · Perpetuity growth terminal value · Mid-year discounting · Base case

    AdjustedSome line items were not reported and have been derived. Each one is labelled in the workings below.
    AdjustedBeta of -0.306 is not usable in a cost of equity. Clamped to 0.30.

    Value Per Share

    Perpetuity growth
    AUD -3.48-211.4%
    Exit multiple
    AUD 0.16-94.9%
    Market price
    AUD 3.12

    Same forecast, different terminal treatment. Percentages vs price.

    Forecast Cashflows

    Reporting currency (AUD). Outflows negative.

    0m16m32mFY26FY27FY28FY29FY30
    Nominal FCFFDiscounted to todayAUD
    LineFY26FY27FY28FY29FY30CAGR
    RevenueAUD 29.2bnAUD 30.0bnAUD 30.9bnAUD 31.7bnAUD 32.6bn+2.8%
    EBITAUD -17.2mAUD -17.6mAUD -18.1mAUD -18.6mAUD -19.2m-2.8%
    NOPATAUD -12.0mAUD -12.4mAUD -12.7mAUD -13.0mAUD -13.4m-2.8%
    Add depreciation & amortisationAUD 534.1mAUD 548.9mAUD 564.1mAUD 579.8mAUD 595.9m+2.8%
    Less capital expenditureAUD -511.8mAUD -526.0mAUD -540.6mAUD -555.6mAUD -571.0m+2.8%
    Less increase in working capitalAUD 18.4mAUD 18.9mAUD 19.4mAUD 20.0mAUD 20.5m-2.8%
    Free cashflow to firmAUD 28.7mAUD 29.5mAUD 30.3mAUD 31.2mAUD 32.0m+2.8%
    Discount factor0.97440.92500.87820.83380.7915-
    Present valueAUD 28.0mAUD 27.3mAUD 26.6mAUD 26.0mAUD 25.4m-2.4%
    Present Value Of The ForecastAUD 133.3m

    Discount Rate

    Source shown per component. All overridable above.

    Risk-free rate5.35%Australian Government 10-year (RBA F2)
    Equity risk premium6.00%Market assumption
    Beta0.300Clamped from a reported -0.306
    Cost of equity7.15%Risk-free + beta x equity risk premium
    Cost of debt5.35%Floored at the risk-free rate (implied cost of debt was lower)
    Market capitalisationAUD 5.1bn46.7% of capital
    Total debtAUD 5.9bn53.3% of capital, book value as a proxy
    Tax rate30.0%Effective, capped at statutory
    WACC5.33%E/V x Re + D/V x Rd x (1 - t)

    Terminal Value

    Perpetuity growth is intrinsic. The exit multiple defaults to the company's current EV/EBITDA, so it answers a different question - what the shares are worth if today's rating holds and EBITDA grows as forecast.

    Perpetuity growth at 2.50%

    Value per shareAUD -3.48

    0% of EV

    Terminal value, undiscounted
    AUD 0.00
    Terminal value, discounted
    AUD 0.00
    Enterprise value
    AUD 133.3m
    Less net debt
    AUD 5.7bn
    Equity value
    AUD -5.6bn

    Exit at 12.7x EBITDA

    Value per shareAUD 0.16

    98% of EV

    Terminal value, undiscounted
    AUD 7.3bn
    Terminal value, discounted
    AUD 5.8bn
    Enterprise value
    AUD 5.9bn
    Less net debt
    AUD 5.7bn
    Equity value
    AUD 252.0m

    Sensitivity

    Value per share (AUD) by discount rate and long-run growth.

    Long-run growth
    Discount rate1.50%2.00%2.50%3.00%3.50%
    3.33%-3.47-3.47-3.47-3.47—
    4.33%-3.47-3.47-3.47-3.47-3.47
    5.33%-3.48-3.48-3.48-3.48-3.48
    6.33%-3.48-3.48-3.48-3.48-3.48
    7.33%-3.48-3.48-3.48-3.48-3.48

    Outlined: this model. Green text: above today's price of 3.12. Shading: distance from this model's own value.

    Priced In

    What each input would have to be to justify the current price, one at a time.

    InputModelImpliedGap
    Revenue growth, every year2.8%81.5%+78.7pp
    EBIT margin-0.1%2.4%+2.4pp
    Download as Excel

    Live formulas, not pasted numbers - edit a driver and the workbook reprices.

    Yahoo Finance and RBA data. General information, not advice. Methodology.