DCF Studio

    VEEV · NYQ · Healthcare

    Veeva Systems Inc.

    Also onShortfallConsensus DriftCrosscheck

    Implied value per share

    USD 114.70

    Market price

    USD 307.00

    Implied upside

    -62.6%

    10-year forecast · Perpetuity growth terminal value · Mid-year discounting · Base case · Price 2026-11-02 · Accounts to 2026-01-31

    AdjustedReported capital expenditure averages just 0.00% of revenue, which is too low to be the company's real investment - property trusts and similar structures invest through lines that are not reported as capex. Capex has been set to 1.34% of revenue so the forecast is not handed free growth. The accounts do not separate depreciation from amortisation, so the combined charge is used - if a large part of it is amortisation of an acquisition, the reported capex is probably right and this substitution is not. Override it if the reported figure is right.

    Current EV/EBITDA of 45.3x sits outside a defensible 3-20x band, so the exit multiple is capped at 20.0x. A multiple that far out usually means EBITDA is the wrong denominator for this business.

    Value Per Share

    Perpetuity growth
    USD 114.70-62.6%
    Exit multiple
    USD 162.46-47.1%
    Market price
    USD 307.00

    Same forecast, different terminal treatment. Percentages vs price.

    Forecast Cashflows

    Reporting currency (USD). Outflows negative.

    0m482m965mFY27FY28FY29FY30FY31FY32FY33FY34FY35FY36
    Nominal FCFFDiscounted to todayUSD
    LineFY27FY28FY29FY30FY31FY32FY33FY34FY35FY36CAGR
    RevenueUSD 3.7bnUSD 4.1bnUSD 4.6bnUSD 5.1bnUSD 5.5bnUSD 5.9bnUSD 6.3bnUSD 6.6bnUSD 6.8bnUSD 7.0bn+7.4%
    EBITUSD 860.9mUSD 966.8mUSD 1.1bnUSD 1.2bnUSD 1.3bnUSD 1.4bnUSD 1.5bnUSD 1.5bnUSD 1.6bnUSD 1.6bn+7.4%
    NOPATUSD 719.2mUSD 807.6mUSD 897.1mUSD 985.4mUSD 1.1bnUSD 1.1bnUSD 1.2bnUSD 1.3bnUSD 1.3bnUSD 1.4bn+7.4%
    Add depreciation & amortisationUSD 49.4mUSD 55.5mUSD 61.6mUSD 67.7mUSD 73.5mUSD 78.9mUSD 83.8mUSD 88.0mUSD 91.2mUSD 93.5m+7.4%
    Less capital expenditureUSD -49.4mUSD -77.7mUSD -110.9mUSD -148.9mUSD -191.1mUSD -236.8mUSD -285.0mUSD -334.3mUSD -383.2mUSD -430.2m+27.2%
    Capex, % of revenue1.3%1.9%2.4%2.9%3.5%4.0%4.6%5.1%5.6%6.2%-
    Less increase in working capitalUSD -174.8mUSD -160.2mUSD -162.0mUSD -160.0mUSD -153.9mUSD -143.4mUSD -128.5mUSD -109.4mUSD -86.4mUSD -60.2m-11.2%
    Free cashflow to firmUSD 544.4mUSD 625.3mUSD 685.8mUSD 744.2mUSD 798.8mUSD 848.2mUSD 890.7mUSD 925.1mUSD 950.2mUSD 964.9m+6.6%
    Discount factor0.95880.88140.81020.74480.68470.62940.57860.53190.48900.4495-
    Present valueUSD 522.0mUSD 551.1mUSD 555.7mUSD 554.3mUSD 547.0mUSD 533.9mUSD 515.4mUSD 492.1mUSD 464.6mUSD 433.7m-
    Present Value Of The ForecastUSD 5.2bn

    Discount Rate

    Source shown per component. All overridable above.

    Risk-free rate4.89%US 10-year Treasury (^TNX), 2026-11-02
    Equity risk premium4.23%Damodaran, January 2026
    Beta0.920Reported 0.881, pulled toward 1.0 (Blume)
    Cost of equity8.79%Risk-free + beta x equity risk premium
    Cost of debt6.89%Assumed: risk-free + 200bp (interest expense not reported)
    Market capitalisationUSD 49.7bn99.8% of capital
    Total debtUSD 95.9m0.2% of capital, book value as a proxy
    Tax rate16.5%Effective, capped at statutory
    WACC8.78%E/V x Re + D/V x Rd x (1 - t)

    Terminal Value

    Perpetuity growth is intrinsic. The exit multiple defaults to the company's current EV/EBITDA, so it answers a different question - what the shares are worth if today's rating holds and EBITDA grows as forecast.

    Perpetuity growth at 2.50%

    Value per shareUSD 114.70

    59% of EV

    Forecast FCFF, final year
    USD 964.9m
    Capex at depreciation, working capital in reinvestment
    USD 1.4bn
    Less reinvestment at g/ROIC (24.7% of NOPAT)
    USD -336.7m
    Capitalised
    USD 1.0bn
    ROIC (reported)
    10.1%
    Terminal value, undiscounted
    USD 16.7bn
    Terminal value, discounted
    USD 7.5bn
    Enterprise value
    USD 12.7bn
    Less net debt
    USD -6.5bn
    Equity value
    USD 19.2bn

    Exit at 20.0x EBITDA

    Value per shareUSD 162.46

    75% of EV

    Terminal value, undiscounted
    USD 34.5bn
    Terminal value, discounted
    USD 15.5bn
    Enterprise value
    USD 20.7bn
    Less net debt
    USD -6.5bn
    Equity value
    USD 27.1bn

    Spread between methods: 34%.

    Sensitivity

    Value per share (USD) by discount rate and long-run growth.

    Long-run growth
    Discount rate1.50%2.00%2.50%3.00%3.50%
    6.78%146.47148.59151.42155.25160.52
    7.78%128.31128.81129.56130.66132.21
    8.78%115.21114.91114.70114.60114.63
    9.78%105.32104.63103.96103.30102.66
    10.78%98.0897.3996.6996.0095.31

    Outlined: this model. Green text: above today's price of 307.00. Shading: distance from this model's own value.

    Priced In

    What each input would have to be to justify the current price, one at a time.

    InputActualModelImplied
    Revenue growth, a year14.0%8.1%25.4%
    EBIT margin28.7%23.3%78.2%
    Discount rate-8.8%4.3%
    Download as Excel

    Live formulas, not pasted numbers - edit a driver and the workbook reprices.

    Yahoo Finance and RBA data. General information, not advice. Methodology.