DCF Studio

    VICI · NYQ · Real Estate

    VICI Properties Inc.

    Also onShortfallConsensus DriftCrosscheck

    Implied value per share

    USD 41.05

    Market price

    USD 25.00

    Implied upside

    +64.2%

    10-year forecast · Perpetuity growth terminal value · Mid-year discounting · Base case · Price 2026-11-02 · Accounts to 2025-12-31

    AdjustedReported capital expenditure averages just 0.10% of revenue, which is too low to be the company's real investment - property trusts and similar structures invest through lines that are not reported as capex. Capex has been set to 1.00% of revenue so the forecast is not handed free growth. Override it if the reported figure is right.
    AdjustedCapital expenditure runs at 1.0% of revenue against depreciation of 0.1%. A perpetuity has to be a steady state, so the forecast tapers capex to maintenance at depreciation plus the reinvestment terminal growth requires (g/ROIC of NOPAT), and the terminal year carries on from there. The bridge is shown under Terminal Value.

    Value Per Share

    Perpetuity growth
    USD 41.05+64.2%
    Exit multiple
    USD 34.56+38.2%
    Market price
    USD 25.00

    Same forecast, different terminal treatment. Percentages vs price.

    Forecast Cashflows

    Reporting currency (USD). Outflows negative.

    0bn2bn4bnFY26FY27FY28FY29FY30FY31FY32FY33FY34FY35
    Nominal FCFFDiscounted to todayUSD
    LineFY26FY27FY28FY29FY30FY31FY32FY33FY34FY35CAGR
    RevenueUSD 4.2bnUSD 4.4bnUSD 4.5bnUSD 4.6bnUSD 4.8bnUSD 4.9bnUSD 5.0bnUSD 5.2bnUSD 5.3bnUSD 5.4bn+2.9%
    EBITUSD 3.6bnUSD 3.7bnUSD 3.8bnUSD 3.9bnUSD 4.0bnUSD 4.2bnUSD 4.3bnUSD 4.4bnUSD 4.5bnUSD 4.6bn+2.9%
    NOPATUSD 3.6bnUSD 3.7bnUSD 3.8bnUSD 3.9bnUSD 4.0bnUSD 4.1bnUSD 4.3bnUSD 4.4bnUSD 4.5bnUSD 4.6bn+2.9%
    Add depreciation & amortisationUSD 4.6mUSD 4.8mUSD 4.9mUSD 5.1mUSD 5.2mUSD 5.4mUSD 5.5mUSD 5.7mUSD 5.8mUSD 6.0m+2.9%
    Less capital expenditureUSD -42.1mUSD -165.9mUSD -297.5mUSD -436.9mUSD -584.1mUSD -739.0mUSD -901.5mUSD -1.1bnUSD -1.2bnUSD -1.4bn+48.0%
    Capex, % of revenue1.0%3.8%6.6%9.4%12.2%15.1%17.9%20.7%23.5%26.3%-
    Less increase in working capitalUSD -2.9mUSD -1.9mUSD -1.9mUSD -1.9mUSD -1.9mUSD -1.9mUSD -1.9mUSD -1.9mUSD -1.9mUSD -1.8m-4.8%
    Free cashflow to firmUSD 3.5bnUSD 3.5bnUSD 3.5bnUSD 3.5bnUSD 3.4bnUSD 3.4bnUSD 3.4bnUSD 3.3bnUSD 3.2bnUSD 3.2bn-1.1%
    Discount factor0.96600.90130.84100.78470.73220.68320.63750.59480.55500.5179-
    Present valueUSD 3.4bnUSD 3.2bnUSD 2.9bnUSD 2.7bnUSD 2.5bnUSD 2.3bnUSD 2.1bnUSD 2.0bnUSD 1.8bnUSD 1.6bn-
    Present Value Of The ForecastUSD 24.6bn

    Discount Rate

    Source shown per component. All overridable above.

    Risk-free rate4.89%US 10-year Treasury (^TNX), 2026-11-02
    Equity risk premium4.23%Damodaran, January 2026
    Beta0.768Reported 0.654, pulled toward 1.0 (Blume)
    Cost of equity8.14%Risk-free + beta x equity risk premium
    Cost of debt5.67%Risk-free + 78bp, the spread for a A rating at 4.3x interest cover. Book interest / average debt was lower, at 4.8%.
    Market capitalisationUSD 27.5bn60.9% of capital
    Total debtUSD 17.7bn39.1% of capital, book value as a proxy
    Tax rate0.3%Effective, capped at statutory
    WACC7.17%E/V x Re + D/V x Rd x (1 - t)

    Terminal Value

    Perpetuity growth is intrinsic. The exit multiple defaults to the company's current EV/EBITDA, so it answers a different question - what the shares are worth if today's rating holds and EBITDA grows as forecast.

    Perpetuity growth at 2.50%

    Value per shareUSD 41.05

    59% of EV

    Forecast FCFF, final year
    USD 3.2bn
    Capex at depreciation, working capital in reinvestment
    USD 4.6bn
    Less reinvestment at g/ROIC (31.0% of NOPAT)
    USD -1.4bn
    Capitalised
    USD 3.2bn
    ROIC (reported)
    8.1%
    Terminal value, undiscounted
    USD 69.6bn
    Terminal value, discounted
    USD 36.1bn
    Enterprise value
    USD 60.7bn
    Less net debt
    USD 17.1bn
    Equity value
    USD 43.6bn

    Exit at 12.2x EBITDA

    Value per shareUSD 34.56

    54% of EV

    Terminal value, undiscounted
    USD 56.3bn
    Terminal value, discounted
    USD 29.2bn
    Enterprise value
    USD 53.8bn
    Less net debt
    USD 17.1bn
    Equity value
    USD 36.7bn

    Spread between methods: 17%.

    Sensitivity

    Value per share (USD) by discount rate and long-run growth.

    Long-run growth
    Discount rate1.50%2.00%2.50%3.00%3.50%
    5.17%71.2574.8680.1188.09101.29
    6.17%53.1053.9855.2957.2360.14
    7.17%41.3441.1541.0541.0941.31
    8.17%33.2132.6132.0131.4130.81
    9.17%27.8127.3026.8026.2925.78

    Outlined: this model. Green text: above today's price of 25.00. Shading: distance from this model's own value.

    Priced In

    What each input would have to be to justify the current price, one at a time.

    InputActualModelImplied
    Revenue growth, a year15.5%3.1%-0.8%
    EBIT margin92.6%84.7%61.0%
    Discount rate-7.2%9.6%
    Download as Excel

    Live formulas, not pasted numbers - edit a driver and the workbook reprices.

    Yahoo Finance and RBA data. General information, not advice. Methodology.