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    VMC · NYQ · Basic Materials

    Vulcan Materials Company

    Also onShortfallConsensus DriftCrosscheck

    Implied value per share

    USD 89.14

    Market price

    USD 289.14

    Implied upside

    -69.2%

    10-year forecast · Perpetuity growth terminal value · Mid-year discounting · Base case · Price 2026-11-02 · Accounts to 2025-12-31

    Value Per Share

    Perpetuity growth
    USD 89.14-69.2%
    Exit multiple
    USD 201.64-30.3%
    Market price
    USD 289.14

    Same forecast, different terminal treatment. Percentages vs price.

    Forecast Cashflows

    Reporting currency (USD). Outflows negative.

    0bn1bn1bnFY26FY27FY28FY29FY30FY31FY32FY33FY34FY35
    Nominal FCFFDiscounted to todayUSD
    LineFY26FY27FY28FY29FY30FY31FY32FY33FY34FY35CAGR
    RevenueUSD 8.0bnUSD 8.4bnUSD 8.8bnUSD 9.2bnUSD 9.6bnUSD 10.0bnUSD 10.3bnUSD 10.6bnUSD 10.9bnUSD 11.2bn+3.8%
    EBITUSD 1.4bnUSD 1.5bnUSD 1.5bnUSD 1.6bnUSD 1.7bnUSD 1.7bnUSD 1.8bnUSD 1.9bnUSD 1.9bnUSD 2.0bn+3.8%
    NOPATUSD 1.1bnUSD 1.2bnUSD 1.2bnUSD 1.3bnUSD 1.3bnUSD 1.4bnUSD 1.4bnUSD 1.5bnUSD 1.5bnUSD 1.5bn+3.8%
    Add depreciation & amortisationUSD 597.0mUSD 626.9mUSD 656.3mUSD 685.1mUSD 713.0mUSD 739.7mUSD 765.2mUSD 789.1mUSD 811.3mUSD 831.6m+3.8%
    Less capital expenditureUSD -728.3mUSD -776.2mUSD -824.5mUSD -873.1mUSD -921.5mUSD -969.5mUSD -1.0bnUSD -1.1bnUSD -1.1bnUSD -1.2bn+5.2%
    Capex, % of revenue9.1%9.2%9.3%9.5%9.6%9.7%9.9%10.0%10.1%10.3%-
    Less increase in working capitalUSD -14.1mUSD -60.5mUSD -59.6mUSD -58.2mUSD -56.4mUSD -54.2mUSD -51.5mUSD -48.4mUSD -44.9mUSD -41.0m+12.6%
    Free cashflow to firmUSD 967.1mUSD 958.4mUSD 995.4mUSD 1.0bnUSD 1.1bnUSD 1.1bnUSD 1.1bnUSD 1.1bnUSD 1.2bnUSD 1.2bn+2.3%
    Discount factor0.95980.88420.81460.75050.69140.63690.58680.54060.49800.4588-
    Present valueUSD 928.2mUSD 847.5mUSD 810.8mUSD 773.4mUSD 735.4mUSD 697.2mUSD 658.9mUSD 620.8mUSD 583.1mUSD 546.0m-
    Present Value Of The ForecastUSD 7.2bn

    Discount Rate

    Source shown per component. All overridable above.

    Risk-free rate4.89%US 10-year Treasury (^TNX), 2026-11-02
    Equity risk premium4.23%Damodaran, January 2026
    Beta0.996Reported 0.994, pulled toward 1.0 (Blume)
    Cost of equity9.11%Risk-free + beta x equity risk premium
    Cost of debt5.44%Risk-free + 55bp, the spread for a AA rating at 6.5x interest cover. Book interest / average debt was lower, at 4.5%.
    Market capitalisationUSD 37.1bn88.4% of capital
    Total debtUSD 4.9bn11.6% of capital, book value as a proxy
    Tax rate21.0%Effective, capped at statutory
    WACC8.55%E/V x Re + D/V x Rd x (1 - t)

    Terminal Value

    Perpetuity growth is intrinsic. The exit multiple defaults to the company's current EV/EBITDA, so it answers a different question - what the shares are worth if today's rating holds and EBITDA grows as forecast.

    Perpetuity growth at 2.50%

    Value per shareUSD 89.14

    56% of EV

    Forecast FCFF, final year
    USD 1.2bn
    Capex at depreciation, working capital in reinvestment
    USD 1.7bn
    Less reinvestment at g/ROIC (28.1% of NOPAT)
    USD -467.9m
    Capitalised
    USD 1.2bn
    ROIC (reported)
    8.9%
    Terminal value, undiscounted
    USD 20.3bn
    Terminal value, discounted
    USD 9.3bn
    Enterprise value
    USD 16.5bn
    Less net debt
    USD 4.7bn
    Equity value
    USD 11.8bn

    Exit at 18.9x EBITDA

    Value per shareUSD 201.64

    77% of EV

    Terminal value, undiscounted
    USD 52.9bn
    Terminal value, discounted
    USD 24.3bn
    Enterprise value
    USD 31.5bn
    Less net debt
    USD 4.7bn
    Equity value
    USD 26.8bn

    Spread between methods: 77%.

    Sensitivity

    Value per share (USD) by discount rate and long-run growth.

    Long-run growth
    Discount rate1.50%2.00%2.50%3.00%3.50%
    6.55%142.98145.49149.04154.08161.34
    7.55%113.04112.94113.16113.78114.96
    8.55%91.6490.3789.1487.9886.89
    9.55%76.7075.3373.9772.6071.23
    10.55%65.3364.1662.9861.8160.64

    Outlined: this model. Green text: above today's price of 289.14. Shading: distance from this model's own value.

    Priced In

    What each input would have to be to justify the current price, one at a time.

    InputActualModelImplied
    Revenue growth, a year2.8%3.5%15.8%
    EBIT margin19.7%17.5%45.8%
    Discount rate-8.5%4.8%
    Download as Excel

    Live formulas, not pasted numbers - edit a driver and the workbook reprices.

    Yahoo Finance and RBA data. General information, not advice. Methodology.