DCF Studio

    VNA.DE · GER · Real Estate

    Vonovia SE

    Also onConsensus Drift

    Implied value per share

    EUR -44.58

    Market price

    EUR 17.70

    Implied upside

    -351.9%

    5-year forecast · Perpetuity growth terminal value · Mid-year discounting · Base case

    AdjustedReported capital expenditure averages just 0.00% of revenue, which is too low to be the company's real investment - property trusts and similar structures invest through lines that are not reported as capex. Capex has been set to 11.03% of revenue so the forecast is not handed free growth. Override it if the reported figure is right.
    NoteRisk-free rate is an assumption: EUR assumption - no free live source available for this market.

    Current EV/EBITDA of 55.4x sits outside a defensible 3-20x band, so the exit multiple is capped at 20.0x. A multiple that far out usually means EBITDA is the wrong denominator for this business.

    Value Per Share

    Perpetuity growth
    EUR -44.58-351.9%
    Exit multiple
    EUR -33.38-288.6%
    Market price
    EUR 17.70

    Same forecast, different terminal treatment. Percentages vs price.

    Forecast Cashflows

    Reporting currency (EUR). Outflows negative.

    0m23m46mFY26FY27FY28FY29FY30
    Nominal FCFFDiscounted to todayEUR
    LineFY26FY27FY28FY29FY30CAGR
    RevenueEUR 5.3bnEUR 5.2bnEUR 5.2bnEUR 5.1bnEUR 5.1bn-0.9%
    EBITEUR 98.4mEUR 97.5mEUR 96.6mEUR 95.7mEUR 94.8m-0.9%
    NOPATEUR 68.9mEUR 68.3mEUR 67.6mEUR 67.0mEUR 66.4m-0.9%
    Add depreciation & amortisationEUR 582.6mEUR 577.2mEUR 571.8mEUR 566.5mEUR 561.3m-0.9%
    Less capital expenditureEUR -582.6mEUR -577.2mEUR -571.8mEUR -566.5mEUR -561.3m-0.9%
    Less increase in working capitalEUR -23.2mEUR -22.9mEUR -22.7mEUR -22.5mEUR -22.3m-0.9%
    Free cashflow to firmEUR 45.7mEUR 45.3mEUR 44.9mEUR 44.5mEUR 44.1m-0.9%
    Discount factor0.98030.94210.90530.87000.8361-
    Present valueEUR 44.8mEUR 42.7mEUR 40.6mEUR 38.7mEUR 36.8m-4.8%
    Present Value Of The ForecastEUR 203.7m

    Discount Rate

    Source shown per component. All overridable above.

    Risk-free rate2.60%EUR assumption - no free live source available for this market (assumption)
    Equity risk premium6.00%Market assumption
    Beta1.316Reported 1.471, pulled toward 1.0 (Blume)
    Cost of equity10.49%Risk-free + beta x equity risk premium
    Cost of debt2.60%Floored at the risk-free rate (implied cost of debt was lower)
    Market capitalisationEUR 15.0bn25.8% of capital
    Total debtEUR 43.2bn74.2% of capital, book value as a proxy
    Tax rate30.0%Effective, capped at statutory
    WACC4.06%E/V x Re + D/V x Rd x (1 - t)

    Terminal Value

    Perpetuity growth is intrinsic. The exit multiple defaults to the company's current EV/EBITDA, so it answers a different question - what the shares are worth if today's rating holds and EBITDA grows as forecast.

    Perpetuity growth at 2.50%

    Value per shareEUR -44.58

    87% of EV

    Forecast FCFF, final year
    EUR 44.1m
    Capex at depreciation, working capital in reinvestment
    EUR 66.4m
    Less reinvestment at g/ROIC (61.6% of NOPAT)
    EUR -40.9m
    Capitalised
    EUR 25.5m
    ROIC (WACC floor)
    4.1%
    Terminal value, undiscounted
    EUR 1.7bn
    Terminal value, discounted
    EUR 1.4bn
    Enterprise value
    EUR 1.6bn
    Less net debt
    EUR 39.7bn
    Equity value
    EUR -38.1bn

    Exit at 20.0x EBITDA

    Value per shareEUR -33.38

    98% of EV

    Terminal value, undiscounted
    EUR 13.1bn
    Terminal value, discounted
    EUR 11.0bn
    Enterprise value
    EUR 11.2bn
    Less net debt
    EUR 39.7bn
    Equity value
    EUR -28.5bn

    Sensitivity

    Value per share (EUR) by discount rate and long-run growth.

    Long-run growth
    Discount rate1.50%2.00%2.50%3.00%3.50%
    2.06%-42.72-33.68———
    3.06%-43.97-43.96-43.94-34.10—
    4.06%-44.60-44.59-44.58-44.58-44.57
    5.06%-44.98-44.98-44.97-44.96-44.96
    6.06%-45.24-45.23-45.23-45.22-45.22

    Outlined: this model. Green text: above today's price of 17.70. Shading: distance from this model's own value.

    Priced In

    What each input would have to be to justify the current price, one at a time.

    InputModelImpliedGap
    Revenue growth, every year-0.9%72.1%+73.0pp
    EBIT margin1.9%59.9%+58.0pp
    Download as Excel

    Live formulas, not pasted numbers - edit a driver and the workbook reprices.

    Yahoo Finance and RBA data. General information, not advice. Methodology.