DCF Studio

    VRSK · NMS · Industrials

    Verisk Analytics, Inc.

    Also onShortfallConsensus DriftCrosscheck

    Implied value per share

    USD 178.95

    Market price

    USD 201.50

    Implied upside

    -11.2%

    10-year forecast · Perpetuity growth terminal value · Mid-year discounting · Base case · Price 2026-11-02 · Accounts to 2025-12-31

    Value Per Share

    Perpetuity growth
    USD 178.95-11.2%
    Exit multiple
    USD 228.56+13.4%
    Market price
    USD 201.50

    Same forecast, different terminal treatment. Percentages vs price.

    Forecast Cashflows

    Reporting currency (USD). Outflows negative.

    0bn1bn2bnFY26FY27FY28FY29FY30FY31FY32FY33FY34FY35
    Nominal FCFFDiscounted to todayUSD
    LineFY26FY27FY28FY29FY30FY31FY32FY33FY34FY35CAGR
    RevenueUSD 3.2bnUSD 3.4bnUSD 3.6bnUSD 3.9bnUSD 4.1bnUSD 4.2bnUSD 4.4bnUSD 4.6bnUSD 4.7bnUSD 4.8bn+4.6%
    EBITUSD 1.5bnUSD 1.6bnUSD 1.7bnUSD 1.8bnUSD 1.9bnUSD 2.0bnUSD 2.1bnUSD 2.1bnUSD 2.2bnUSD 2.2bn+4.6%
    NOPATUSD 1.2bnUSD 1.3bnUSD 1.3bnUSD 1.4bnUSD 1.5bnUSD 1.6bnUSD 1.6bnUSD 1.7bnUSD 1.7bnUSD 1.8bn+4.6%
    Add depreciation & amortisationUSD 365.0mUSD 389.7mUSD 413.9mUSD 437.4mUSD 460.0mUSD 481.2mUSD 500.9mUSD 518.8mUSD 534.5mUSD 547.9m+4.6%
    Less capital expenditureUSD -284.0mUSD -315.3mUSD -347.8mUSD -381.2mUSD -415.2mUSD -449.3mUSD -483.3mUSD -516.7mUSD -549.0mUSD -579.8m+8.3%
    Capex, % of revenue8.8%9.2%9.5%9.9%10.2%10.6%10.9%11.3%11.6%12.0%-
    Less increase in working capitalUSD -12.4mUSD -18.4mUSD -18.1mUSD -17.6mUSD -16.9mUSD -15.9mUSD -14.7mUSD -13.4mUSD -11.8mUSD -10.0m-2.4%
    Free cashflow to firmUSD 1.2bnUSD 1.3bnUSD 1.4bnUSD 1.5bnUSD 1.5bnUSD 1.6bnUSD 1.6bnUSD 1.7bnUSD 1.7bnUSD 1.7bn+3.7%
    Discount factor0.96410.89620.83310.77440.71990.66920.62210.57820.53750.4997-
    Present valueUSD 1.2bnUSD 1.2bnUSD 1.2bnUSD 1.1bnUSD 1.1bnUSD 1.1bnUSD 1.0bnUSD 964.2mUSD 915.6mUSD 864.9m-
    Present Value Of The ForecastUSD 10.6bn

    Discount Rate

    Source shown per component. All overridable above.

    Risk-free rate4.89%US 10-year Treasury (^TNX), 2026-11-02
    Equity risk premium4.23%Damodaran, January 2026
    Beta0.779Reported 0.670, pulled toward 1.0 (Blume)
    Cost of equity8.19%Risk-free + beta x equity risk premium
    Cost of debt5.44%Risk-free + 55bp, the spread for a AA rating at 7.9x interest cover. Book interest / average debt was lower, at 4.2%.
    Market capitalisationUSD 26.2bn84.3% of capital
    Total debtUSD 4.9bn15.7% of capital, book value as a proxy
    Tax rate21.0%Effective, capped at statutory
    WACC7.58%E/V x Re + D/V x Rd x (1 - t)

    Terminal Value

    Perpetuity growth is intrinsic. The exit multiple defaults to the company's current EV/EBITDA, so it answers a different question - what the shares are worth if today's rating holds and EBITDA grows as forecast.

    Perpetuity growth at 2.50%

    Value per shareUSD 178.95

    62% of EV

    Forecast FCFF, final year
    USD 1.7bn
    Capex at depreciation, working capital in reinvestment
    USD 1.9bn
    Less reinvestment at g/ROIC (10.1% of NOPAT)
    USD -191.4m
    Capitalised
    USD 1.7bn
    ROIC (reported)
    24.8%
    Terminal value, undiscounted
    USD 34.5bn
    Terminal value, discounted
    USD 17.2bn
    Enterprise value
    USD 27.8bn
    Less net debt
    USD 2.7bn
    Equity value
    USD 25.1bn

    Exit at 17.3x EBITDA

    Value per shareUSD 228.56

    70% of EV

    Terminal value, undiscounted
    USD 48.4bn
    Terminal value, discounted
    USD 24.2bn
    Enterprise value
    USD 34.7bn
    Less net debt
    USD 2.7bn
    Equity value
    USD 32.0bn

    Spread between methods: 24%.

    Sensitivity

    Value per share (USD) by discount rate and long-run growth.

    Long-run growth
    Discount rate1.50%2.00%2.50%3.00%3.50%
    5.58%254.15276.17305.57346.65407.85
    6.58%200.06211.87226.74245.96271.63
    7.58%163.80170.64178.96189.22202.16
    8.58%137.82141.97146.89152.80159.99
    9.58%118.30120.87123.88127.43131.65

    Outlined: this model. Green text: above today's price of 201.50. Shading: distance from this model's own value.

    Priced In

    What each input would have to be to justify the current price, one at a time.

    InputActualModelImplied
    Revenue growth, a year7.2%4.6%5.9%
    EBIT margin56.3%46.4%52.1%
    Discount rate-7.6%7.1%
    Download as Excel

    Live formulas, not pasted numbers - edit a driver and the workbook reprices.

    Yahoo Finance and RBA data. General information, not advice. Methodology.