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    VRT · NYQ · Industrials

    Vertiv Holdings Co

    Also onShortfallConsensus DriftCrosscheck

    Implied value per share

    USD 98.93

    Market price

    USD 224.24

    Implied upside

    -55.9%

    10-year forecast · Perpetuity growth terminal value · Mid-year discounting · Base case · Price 2026-11-02 · Accounts to 2025-12-31

    Current EV/EBITDA of 39.8x sits outside a defensible 3-20x band, so the exit multiple is capped at 20.0x. A multiple that far out usually means EBITDA is the wrong denominator for this business.

    Value Per Share

    Perpetuity growth
    USD 98.93-55.9%
    Exit multiple
    USD 217.97-2.8%
    Market price
    USD 224.24

    Same forecast, different terminal treatment. Percentages vs price.

    Forecast Cashflows

    Reporting currency (USD). Outflows negative.

    0bn3bn7bnFY26FY27FY28FY29FY30FY31FY32FY33FY34FY35
    Nominal FCFFDiscounted to todayUSD
    LineFY26FY27FY28FY29FY30FY31FY32FY33FY34FY35CAGR
    RevenueUSD 14.7bnUSD 19.5bnUSD 25.0bnUSD 31.2bnUSD 37.7bnUSD 44.3bnUSD 50.3bnUSD 55.3bnUSD 58.7bnUSD 60.2bn+16.9%
    EBITUSD 2.0bnUSD 2.6bnUSD 3.3bnUSD 4.1bnUSD 5.0bnUSD 5.9bnUSD 6.7bnUSD 7.3bnUSD 7.8bnUSD 8.0bn+16.9%
    NOPATUSD 1.5bnUSD 2.0bnUSD 2.6bnUSD 3.3bnUSD 4.0bnUSD 4.6bnUSD 5.3bnUSD 5.8bnUSD 6.2bnUSD 6.3bn+16.9%
    Add depreciation & amortisationUSD 579.0mUSD 765.2mUSD 983.1mUSD 1.2bnUSD 1.5bnUSD 1.7bnUSD 2.0bnUSD 2.2bnUSD 2.3bnUSD 2.4bn+16.9%
    Less capital expenditureUSD -309.9mUSD -426.8mUSD -570.4mUSD -739.2mUSD -928.2mUSD -1.1bnUSD -1.3bnUSD -1.5bnUSD -1.7bnUSD -1.7bn+21.2%
    Capex, % of revenue2.1%2.2%2.3%2.4%2.5%2.5%2.6%2.7%2.8%2.9%-
    Less increase in working capitalUSD -1.3bnUSD -1.4bnUSD -1.6bnUSD -1.8bnUSD -1.9bnUSD -1.9bnUSD -1.7bnUSD -1.4bnUSD -995.3mUSD -425.6m-11.7%
    Free cashflow to firmUSD 513.3mUSD 1.0bnUSD 1.4bnUSD 2.0bnUSD 2.6bnUSD 3.4bnUSD 4.2bnUSD 5.0bnUSD 5.8bnUSD 6.5bn+32.6%
    Discount factor0.94500.84400.75370.67310.60120.53690.47950.42820.38240.3415-
    Present valueUSD 485.1mUSD 850.6mUSD 1.1bnUSD 1.3bnUSD 1.6bnUSD 1.8bnUSD 2.0bnUSD 2.2bnUSD 2.2bnUSD 2.2bn-
    Present Value Of The ForecastUSD 15.7bn

    Discount Rate

    Source shown per component. All overridable above.

    Risk-free rate4.89%US 10-year Treasury (^TNX), 2026-11-02
    Equity risk premium4.23%Damodaran, January 2026
    Beta1.742Reported 2.108, pulled toward 1.0 (Blume)
    Cost of equity12.26%Risk-free + beta x equity risk premium
    Cost of debt5.29%Risk-free + 40bp, the spread for a AAA rating at 22.0x interest cover. Book interest / average debt was lower, at 2.7%.
    Market capitalisationUSD 86.3bn96.4% of capital
    Total debtUSD 3.2bn3.6% of capital, book value as a proxy
    Tax rate21.0%Effective, capped at statutory
    WACC11.97%E/V x Re + D/V x Rd x (1 - t)

    Terminal Value

    Perpetuity growth is intrinsic. The exit multiple defaults to the company's current EV/EBITDA, so it answers a different question - what the shares are worth if today's rating holds and EBITDA grows as forecast.

    Perpetuity growth at 2.50%

    Value per shareUSD 98.93

    61% of EV

    Forecast FCFF, final year
    USD 6.5bn
    Capex at depreciation, working capital in reinvestment
    USD 7.7bn
    Less reinvestment at g/ROIC (14.3% of NOPAT)
    USD -1.1bn
    Capitalised
    USD 6.6bn
    ROIC (reported)
    17.5%
    Terminal value, undiscounted
    USD 71.2bn
    Terminal value, discounted
    USD 24.3bn
    Enterprise value
    USD 40.0bn
    Less net debt
    USD 1.4bn
    Equity value
    USD 38.6bn

    Exit at 20.0x EBITDA

    Value per shareUSD 217.97

    82% of EV

    Terminal value, undiscounted
    USD 207.4bn
    Terminal value, discounted
    USD 70.8bn
    Enterprise value
    USD 86.5bn
    Less net debt
    USD 1.4bn
    Equity value
    USD 85.1bn

    Spread between methods: 75%.

    Sensitivity

    Value per share (USD) by discount rate and long-run growth.

    Long-run growth
    Discount rate1.50%2.00%2.50%3.00%3.50%
    9.97%130.96132.80135.01137.67140.89
    10.97%112.75113.63114.72116.06117.70
    11.97%98.2398.5298.9399.48100.19
    12.97%86.4386.3586.3386.3986.54
    13.97%76.6876.3676.0775.8375.63

    Outlined: this model. Green text: above today's price of 224.24. Shading: distance from this model's own value.

    Priced In

    What each input would have to be to justify the current price, one at a time.

    InputActualModelImplied
    Revenue growth, a year21.6%19.4%31.1%
    EBIT margin18.5%13.3%29.5%
    Discount rate-12.0%7.5%
    Download as Excel

    Live formulas, not pasted numbers - edit a driver and the workbook reprices.

    Yahoo Finance and RBA data. General information, not advice. Methodology.