DCF Studio

    VST · NYQ · Utilities

    Vistra Corp.

    Also onShortfallConsensus DriftCrosscheck

    Implied value per share

    USD 43.14

    Market price

    USD 134.61

    Implied upside

    -68.0%

    10-year forecast · Perpetuity growth terminal value · Mid-year discounting · Base case · Price 2026-11-02 · Accounts to 2025-12-31

    Value Per Share

    Perpetuity growth
    USD 43.14-68.0%
    Exit multiple
    USD 130.02-3.4%
    Market price
    USD 134.61

    Same forecast, different terminal treatment. Percentages vs price.

    Forecast Cashflows

    Reporting currency (USD). Outflows negative.

    0bn1bn3bnFY26FY27FY28FY29FY30FY31FY32FY33FY34FY35
    Nominal FCFFDiscounted to todayUSD
    LineFY26FY27FY28FY29FY30FY31FY32FY33FY34FY35CAGR
    RevenueUSD 22.0bnUSD 23.1bnUSD 24.2bnUSD 25.2bnUSD 26.2bnUSD 27.2bnUSD 28.1bnUSD 29.0bnUSD 29.8bnUSD 30.6bn+3.7%
    EBITUSD 2.5bnUSD 2.7bnUSD 2.8bnUSD 2.9bnUSD 3.0bnUSD 3.1bnUSD 3.2bnUSD 3.3bnUSD 3.4bnUSD 3.5bn+3.7%
    NOPATUSD 2.1bnUSD 2.2bnUSD 2.3bnUSD 2.4bnUSD 2.4bnUSD 2.5bnUSD 2.6bnUSD 2.7bnUSD 2.8bnUSD 2.9bn+3.7%
    Add depreciation & amortisationUSD 3.3bnUSD 3.5bnUSD 3.6bnUSD 3.8bnUSD 3.9bnUSD 4.1bnUSD 4.2bnUSD 4.4bnUSD 4.5bnUSD 4.6bn+3.7%
    Less capital expenditureUSD -2.7bnUSD -2.9bnUSD -3.2bnUSD -3.4bnUSD -3.7bnUSD -4.0bnUSD -4.3bnUSD -4.6bnUSD -4.9bnUSD -5.1bn+7.6%
    Capex, % of revenue12.1%12.6%13.2%13.7%14.2%14.7%15.3%15.8%16.3%16.8%-
    Less increase in working capitalUSD -362.7mUSD -92.0mUSD -90.6mUSD -88.5mUSD -85.9mUSD -82.6mUSD -78.6mUSD -74.1mUSD -68.9mUSD -63.2m-17.6%
    Free cashflow to firmUSD 2.3bnUSD 2.6bnUSD 2.6bnUSD 2.6bnUSD 2.6bnUSD 2.5bnUSD 2.5bnUSD 2.4bnUSD 2.3bnUSD 2.2bn-0.5%
    Discount factor0.95900.88200.81110.74600.68610.63100.58030.53370.49080.4514-
    Present valueUSD 2.2bnUSD 2.3bnUSD 2.1bnUSD 1.9bnUSD 1.8bnUSD 1.6bnUSD 1.4bnUSD 1.3bnUSD 1.1bnUSD 1.0bn-
    Present Value Of The ForecastUSD 16.8bn

    Discount Rate

    Source shown per component. All overridable above.

    Risk-free rate4.89%US 10-year Treasury (^TNX), 2026-11-02
    Equity risk premium4.23%Damodaran, January 2026
    Beta1.251Reported 1.375, pulled toward 1.0 (Blume)
    Cost of equity10.19%Risk-free + beta x equity risk premium
    Cost of debt6.73%Risk-free + 184bp, the spread for a BB rating at 2.2x interest cover. Book interest / average debt was lower, at 5.3%.
    Market capitalisationUSD 45.2bn69.2% of capital
    Total debtUSD 20.1bn30.8% of capital, book value as a proxy
    Tax rate18.9%Effective, capped at statutory
    WACC8.73%E/V x Re + D/V x Rd x (1 - t)

    Terminal Value

    Perpetuity growth is intrinsic. The exit multiple defaults to the company's current EV/EBITDA, so it answers a different question - what the shares are worth if today's rating holds and EBITDA grows as forecast.

    Perpetuity growth at 2.50%

    Value per shareUSD 43.14

    50% of EV

    Forecast FCFF, final year
    USD 2.2bn
    Capex at depreciation, working capital in reinvestment
    USD 2.9bn
    Less reinvestment at g/ROIC (19.6% of NOPAT)
    USD -559.2m
    Capitalised
    USD 2.3bn
    ROIC (reported)
    12.8%
    Terminal value, undiscounted
    USD 37.7bn
    Terminal value, discounted
    USD 17.0bn
    Enterprise value
    USD 33.9bn
    Less net debt
    USD 19.3bn
    Equity value
    USD 14.6bn

    Exit at 12.7x EBITDA

    Value per shareUSD 130.02

    73% of EV

    Terminal value, undiscounted
    USD 102.8bn
    Terminal value, discounted
    USD 46.4bn
    Enterprise value
    USD 63.2bn
    Less net debt
    USD 19.3bn
    Equity value
    USD 44.0bn

    Spread between methods: 100%.

    Sensitivity

    Value per share (USD) by discount rate and long-run growth.

    Long-run growth
    Discount rate1.50%2.00%2.50%3.00%3.50%
    6.73%76.6780.4885.3991.83100.51
    7.73%56.3958.1060.2863.0866.72
    8.73%41.6842.3043.1444.2445.70
    9.73%30.5130.5430.6730.9231.32
    10.73%21.7321.4421.1820.9820.84

    Outlined: this model. Green text: above today's price of 134.61. Shading: distance from this model's own value.

    Priced In

    What each input would have to be to justify the current price, one at a time.

    InputActualModelImplied
    Revenue growth, a year8.9%5.6%14.3%
    EBIT margin23.7%11.5%22.7%
    Discount rate-8.7%5.6%
    Download as Excel

    Live formulas, not pasted numbers - edit a driver and the workbook reprices.

    Yahoo Finance and RBA data. General information, not advice. Methodology.