DCF Studio

    VTR · NYQ · Real Estate

    Ventas, Inc.

    Also onShortfallConsensus DriftCrosscheck

    Implied value per share

    USD 6.62

    Market price

    USD 86.72

    Implied upside

    -92.4%

    10-year forecast · Perpetuity growth terminal value · Mid-year discounting · Base case · Price 2026-11-02 · Accounts to 2025-12-31

    Wrong toolThis model values the shares at 7.6% of the market price. A gap that size is a modelling failure rather than a view - most often an unusable beta, a currency or units mismatch, or a cashflow base that does not represent the business. Read the figures below as diagnostics, not as a call.
    AdjustedReported capital expenditure averages 12.15% of revenue against depreciation of 27.26%. A business cannot depreciate more than it invests indefinitely. Capex has been set to 27.26% of revenue so the forecast is not handed free growth. Override it if the reported figure is right.

    Current EV/EBITDA of 25.7x sits outside a defensible 3-20x band, so the exit multiple is capped at 20.0x. A multiple that far out usually means EBITDA is the wrong denominator for this business.

    Value Per Share

    Perpetuity growth
    USD 6.62-92.4%
    Exit multiple
    USD 98.14+13.2%
    Market price
    USD 86.72

    Same forecast, different terminal treatment. Percentages vs price.

    Forecast Cashflows

    Reporting currency (USD). Outflows negative.

    0bn1bn1bnFY26FY27FY28FY29FY30FY31FY32FY33FY34FY35
    Nominal FCFFDiscounted to todayUSD
    LineFY26FY27FY28FY29FY30FY31FY32FY33FY34FY35CAGR
    RevenueUSD 7.1bnUSD 7.9bnUSD 8.7bnUSD 9.5bnUSD 10.3bnUSD 11.0bnUSD 11.6bnUSD 12.2bnUSD 12.6bnUSD 12.9bn+6.9%
    EBITUSD 875.3mUSD 975.1mUSD 1.1bnUSD 1.2bnUSD 1.3bnUSD 1.4bnUSD 1.4bnUSD 1.5bnUSD 1.6bnUSD 1.6bn+6.9%
    NOPATUSD 691.5mUSD 770.3mUSD 849.5mUSD 927.4mUSD 1.0bnUSD 1.1bnUSD 1.1bnUSD 1.2bnUSD 1.2bnUSD 1.3bn+6.9%
    Add depreciation & amortisationUSD 2.0bnUSD 2.2bnUSD 2.4bnUSD 2.6bnUSD 2.8bnUSD 3.0bnUSD 3.2bnUSD 3.4bnUSD 3.5bnUSD 3.6bn+6.9%
    Less capital expenditureUSD -1.9bnUSD -2.2bnUSD -2.4bnUSD -2.7bnUSD -2.9bnUSD -3.2bnUSD -3.4bnUSD -3.6bnUSD -3.8bnUSD -3.9bn+8.3%
    Capex, % of revenue27.3%27.6%28.0%28.4%28.7%29.1%29.4%29.8%30.2%30.5%-
    Less increase in working capitalUSD 236.6mUSD 153.7mUSD 154.5mUSD 152.0mUSD 145.8mUSD 135.8mUSD 122.0mUSD 104.5mUSD 83.7mUSD 60.0m+14.1%
    Free cashflow to firmUSD 963.1mUSD 934.4mUSD 984.0mUSD 1.0bnUSD 1.0bnUSD 1.1bnUSD 1.1bnUSD 1.0bnUSD 1.0bnUSD 964.3m+0.0%
    Discount factor0.96320.89360.82900.76910.71360.66200.61420.56980.52860.4904-
    Present valueUSD 927.7mUSD 835.0mUSD 815.7mUSD 786.9mUSD 749.2mUSD 703.7mUSD 651.8mUSD 594.9mUSD 534.7mUSD 472.9m-
    Present Value Of The ForecastUSD 7.1bn

    Discount Rate

    Source shown per component. All overridable above.

    Risk-free rate4.89%US 10-year Treasury (^TNX), 2026-11-02
    Equity risk premium4.23%Damodaran, January 2026
    Beta0.844Reported 0.767, pulled toward 1.0 (Blume)
    Cost of equity8.46%Risk-free + beta x equity risk premium
    Cost of debt6.89%Risk-free + 200bp, the spread for a B- rating at 1.4x interest cover, capped at 200bp because one year's cover is too noisy to charge more. Book interest / average debt was lower, at 4.5%.
    Market capitalisationUSD 45.9bn77.6% of capital
    Total debtUSD 13.2bn22.4% of capital, book value as a proxy
    Tax rate21.0%Effective, capped at statutory
    WACC7.79%E/V x Re + D/V x Rd x (1 - t)

    Terminal Value

    Perpetuity growth is intrinsic. The exit multiple defaults to the company's current EV/EBITDA, so it answers a different question - what the shares are worth if today's rating holds and EBITDA grows as forecast.

    Perpetuity growth at 2.50%

    Value per shareUSD 6.62

    54% of EV

    Forecast FCFF, final year
    USD 964.3m
    Capex at depreciation, working capital in reinvestment
    USD 1.3bn
    Less reinvestment at g/ROIC (32.1% of NOPAT)
    USD -421.1m
    Capitalised
    USD 890.9m
    ROIC (WACC floor)
    7.8%
    Terminal value, undiscounted
    USD 17.3bn
    Terminal value, discounted
    USD 8.5bn
    Enterprise value
    USD 15.5bn
    Less net debt
    USD 12.5bn
    Equity value
    USD 3.1bn

    Exit at 20.0x EBITDA

    Value per shareUSD 98.14

    88% of EV

    Terminal value, undiscounted
    USD 103.6bn
    Terminal value, discounted
    USD 50.8bn
    Enterprise value
    USD 57.9bn
    Less net debt
    USD 12.5bn
    Equity value
    USD 45.4bn

    Spread between methods: 175%.

    Sensitivity

    Value per share (USD) by discount rate and long-run growth.

    Long-run growth
    Discount rate1.50%2.00%2.50%3.00%3.50%
    5.79%19.3418.7418.1417.5416.94
    6.79%12.5012.0111.5311.0510.57
    7.79%7.417.026.626.225.82
    8.79%3.493.162.822.492.16
    9.79%0.370.08-0.20-0.48-0.76

    Outlined: this model. Green text: above today's price of 86.72. Shading: distance from this model's own value.

    Priced In

    What each input would have to be to justify the current price, one at a time.

    InputActualModelImplied
    Revenue growth, a year12.2%8.3%23.4%
    EBIT margin14.7%12.4%45.4%
    Discount rate-7.8%2.7%
    Download as Excel

    Live formulas, not pasted numbers - edit a driver and the workbook reprices.

    Yahoo Finance and RBA data. General information, not advice. Methodology.