DCF Studio

    VTRS · NMS · Healthcare

    Viatris Inc.

    Also onShortfallConsensus DriftCrosscheck

    Implied value per share

    USD -1.70

    Market price

    USD 18.67

    Implied upside

    -109.1%

    10-year forecast · Perpetuity growth terminal value · Mid-year discounting · Base case · Price 2026-11-02 · Accounts to 2025-12-31

    AdjustedReported capital expenditure averages 3.11% of revenue against depreciation and amortisation of 18.89%. A business cannot depreciate more than it invests indefinitely. Capex has been set to 18.89% of revenue so the forecast is not handed free growth. The accounts do not separate depreciation from amortisation, so the combined charge is used - if a large part of it is amortisation of an acquisition, the reported capex is probably right and this substitution is not. Override it if the reported figure is right.

    Value Per Share

    Perpetuity growth
    USD -1.70-109.1%
    Exit multiple
    USD 16.05-14.0%
    Market price
    USD 18.67

    Same forecast, different terminal treatment. Percentages vs price.

    Forecast Cashflows

    Reporting currency (USD). Outflows negative.

    0m312m625mFY26FY27FY28FY29FY30FY31FY32FY33FY34FY35
    Nominal FCFFDiscounted to todayUSD
    LineFY26FY27FY28FY29FY30FY31FY32FY33FY34FY35CAGR
    RevenueUSD 14.8bnUSD 15.2bnUSD 15.7bnUSD 16.1bnUSD 16.6bnUSD 17.0bnUSD 17.5bnUSD 17.9bnUSD 18.4bnUSD 18.9bn+2.7%
    EBITUSD 994.1mUSD 1.0bnUSD 1.1bnUSD 1.1bnUSD 1.1bnUSD 1.1bnUSD 1.2bnUSD 1.2bnUSD 1.2bnUSD 1.3bn+2.7%
    NOPATUSD 785.4mUSD 808.9mUSD 832.6mUSD 856.4mUSD 880.5mUSD 904.7mUSD 929.0mUSD 953.3mUSD 977.7mUSD 1.0bn+2.7%
    Add depreciation & amortisationUSD 2.8bnUSD 2.9bnUSD 3.0bnUSD 3.0bnUSD 3.1bnUSD 3.2bnUSD 3.3bnUSD 3.4bnUSD 3.5bnUSD 3.6bn+2.7%
    Less capital expenditureUSD -2.8bnUSD -2.9bnUSD -3.0bnUSD -3.1bnUSD -3.3bnUSD -3.4bnUSD -3.5bnUSD -3.6bnUSD -3.8bnUSD -3.9bn+3.8%
    Capex, % of revenue18.9%19.1%19.3%19.5%19.7%19.9%20.1%20.3%20.5%20.7%-
    Less increase in working capitalUSD -166.6mUSD -153.8mUSD -155.2mUSD -156.3mUSD -157.4mUSD -158.3mUSD -159.0mUSD -159.5mUSD -159.8mUSD -160.0m-0.4%
    Free cashflow to firmUSD 618.8mUSD 624.7mUSD 615.0mUSD 603.8mUSD 591.1mUSD 576.9mUSD 561.1mUSD 543.7mUSD 524.7mUSD 504.1m-2.3%
    Discount factor0.96490.89830.83630.77860.72490.67490.62830.58500.54460.5070-
    Present valueUSD 597.1mUSD 561.2mUSD 514.3mUSD 470.1mUSD 428.5mUSD 389.3mUSD 352.5mUSD 318.0mUSD 285.8mUSD 255.6m-
    Present Value Of The ForecastUSD 4.2bn

    Discount Rate

    Source shown per component. All overridable above.

    Risk-free rate4.89%US 10-year Treasury (^TNX), 2026-11-02
    Equity risk premium4.23%Damodaran, January 2026
    Beta0.914Reported 0.871, pulled toward 1.0 (Blume)
    Cost of equity8.76%Risk-free + beta x equity risk premium
    Cost of debt6.89%Risk-free + 200bp, the spread for a C rating at 0.5x interest cover, capped at 200bp because one year's cover is too noisy to charge more. Book interest / average debt was lower, at 3.2%.
    Market capitalisationUSD 21.4bn59.3% of capital
    Total debtUSD 14.7bn40.7% of capital, book value as a proxy
    Tax rate21.0%Effective, capped at statutory
    WACC7.41%E/V x Re + D/V x Rd x (1 - t)

    Terminal Value

    Perpetuity growth is intrinsic. The exit multiple defaults to the company's current EV/EBITDA, so it answers a different question - what the shares are worth if today's rating holds and EBITDA grows as forecast.

    Perpetuity growth at 2.50%

    Value per shareUSD -1.70

    63% of EV

    Forecast FCFF, final year
    USD 504.1m
    Capex at depreciation, working capital in reinvestment
    USD 1.0bn
    Less reinvestment at g/ROIC (33.7% of NOPAT)
    USD -338.1m
    Capitalised
    USD 664.1m
    ROIC (WACC floor)
    7.4%
    Terminal value, undiscounted
    USD 13.9bn
    Terminal value, discounted
    USD 7.0bn
    Enterprise value
    USD 11.2bn
    Less net debt
    USD 13.2bn
    Equity value
    USD -2.0bn

    Exit at 11.3x EBITDA

    Value per shareUSD 16.05

    87% of EV

    Terminal value, undiscounted
    USD 54.8bn
    Terminal value, discounted
    USD 27.8bn
    Enterprise value
    USD 32.0bn
    Less net debt
    USD 13.2bn
    Equity value
    USD 18.8bn

    Sensitivity

    Value per share (USD) by discount rate and long-run growth.

    Long-run growth
    Discount rate1.50%2.00%2.50%3.00%3.50%
    5.41%2.502.292.081.871.66
    6.41%0.230.06-0.11-0.27-0.44
    7.41%-1.42-1.56-1.70-1.83-1.97
    8.41%-2.67-2.78-2.90-3.01-3.13
    9.41%-3.65-3.74-3.84-3.93-4.03

    Outlined: this model. Green text: above today's price of 18.67. Shading: distance from this model's own value.

    Priced In

    What each input would have to be to justify the current price, one at a time.

    InputActualModelImplied
    Revenue growth, a year-4.2%2.8%22.2%
    EBIT margin10.2%6.7%19.7%
    Discount rate-7.4%2.7%
    Download as Excel

    Live formulas, not pasted numbers - edit a driver and the workbook reprices.

    Yahoo Finance and RBA data. General information, not advice. Methodology.