DCF Studio

    WEC · NYQ · Utilities

    WEC Energy Group, Inc.

    Also onShortfallConsensus DriftCrosscheck

    Implied value per share

    USD 25.27

    Market price

    USD 116.90

    Implied upside

    -78.4%

    10-year forecast · Perpetuity growth terminal value · Mid-year discounting · Base case · Price 2026-11-02 · Accounts to 2025-12-31

    AdjustedCapital expenditure runs at 32.3% of revenue against depreciation of 14.2%. A perpetuity has to be a steady state, so the forecast tapers capex to maintenance at depreciation plus the reinvestment terminal growth requires (g/ROIC of NOPAT), and the terminal year carries on from there. The bridge is shown under Terminal Value.

    Value Per Share

    Perpetuity growth
    USD 25.27-78.4%
    Exit multiple
    USD 93.05-20.4%
    Market price
    USD 116.90

    Same forecast, different terminal treatment. Percentages vs price.

    Forecast Cashflows

    Reporting currency (USD). Outflows negative.

    0bn1bn2bnFY26FY27FY28FY29FY30FY31FY32FY33FY34FY35
    Nominal FCFFDiscounted to todayUSD
    LineFY26FY27FY28FY29FY30FY31FY32FY33FY34FY35CAGR
    RevenueUSD 10.3bnUSD 10.9bnUSD 11.4bnUSD 11.9bnUSD 12.4bnUSD 12.9bnUSD 13.4bnUSD 13.8bnUSD 14.2bnUSD 14.5bn+3.9%
    EBITUSD 2.4bnUSD 2.5bnUSD 2.6bnUSD 2.8bnUSD 2.9bnUSD 3.0bnUSD 3.1bnUSD 3.2bnUSD 3.3bnUSD 3.4bn+3.9%
    NOPATUSD 2.1bnUSD 2.2bnUSD 2.3bnUSD 2.4bnUSD 2.5bnUSD 2.6bnUSD 2.7bnUSD 2.8bnUSD 2.9bnUSD 2.9bn+3.9%
    Add depreciation & amortisationUSD 1.5bnUSD 1.5bnUSD 1.6bnUSD 1.7bnUSD 1.8bnUSD 1.8bnUSD 1.9bnUSD 2.0bnUSD 2.0bnUSD 2.1bn+3.9%
    Less capital expenditureUSD -3.3bnUSD -3.4bnUSD -3.4bnUSD -3.4bnUSD -3.4bnUSD -3.4bnUSD -3.4bnUSD -3.3bnUSD -3.3bnUSD -3.2bn-0.6%
    Capex, % of revenue32.3%31.2%30.0%28.8%27.7%26.5%25.3%24.1%23.0%21.8%-
    Less increase in working capitalUSD -80.7mUSD -84.8mUSD -83.4mUSD -81.4mUSD -78.7mUSD -75.3mUSD -71.2mUSD -66.5mUSD -61.2mUSD -55.3m-4.1%
    Free cashflow to firmUSD 131.0mUSD 265.4mUSD 417.7mUSD 582.4mUSD 758.9mUSD 946.2mUSD 1.1bnUSD 1.3bnUSD 1.6bnUSD 1.8bn+33.6%
    Discount factor0.96830.90800.85140.79840.74870.70200.65830.61730.57880.5428-
    Present valueUSD 126.9mUSD 241.0mUSD 355.6mUSD 465.0mUSD 568.2mUSD 664.2mUSD 752.5mUSD 832.2mUSD 903.0mUSD 964.5m-
    Present Value Of The ForecastUSD 5.9bn

    Discount Rate

    Source shown per component. All overridable above.

    Risk-free rate4.89%US 10-year Treasury (^TNX), 2026-11-02
    Equity risk premium4.23%Damodaran, January 2026
    Beta0.609Reported 0.416, pulled toward 1.0 (Blume)
    Cost of equity7.47%Risk-free + beta x equity risk premium
    Cost of debt6.00%Risk-free + 111bp, the spread for a BBB rating at 2.7x interest cover. Book interest / average debt was lower, at 4.2%.
    Market capitalisationUSD 38.5bn63.3% of capital
    Total debtUSD 22.3bn36.7% of capital, book value as a proxy
    Tax rate13.0%Effective, capped at statutory
    WACC6.64%E/V x Re + D/V x Rd x (1 - t)

    Terminal Value

    Perpetuity growth is intrinsic. The exit multiple defaults to the company's current EV/EBITDA, so it answers a different question - what the shares are worth if today's rating holds and EBITDA grows as forecast.

    Perpetuity growth at 2.50%

    Value per shareUSD 25.27

    81% of EV

    Forecast FCFF, final year
    USD 1.8bn
    Capex at depreciation, working capital in reinvestment
    USD 2.9bn
    Less reinvestment at g/ROIC (37.6% of NOPAT)
    USD -1.1bn
    Capitalised
    USD 1.8bn
    ROIC (WACC floor)
    6.6%
    Terminal value, undiscounted
    USD 45.3bn
    Terminal value, discounted
    USD 24.6bn
    Enterprise value
    USD 30.5bn
    Less net debt
    USD 22.3bn
    Equity value
    USD 8.2bn

    Exit at 15.8x EBITDA

    Value per shareUSD 93.05

    89% of EV

    Terminal value, undiscounted
    USD 85.8bn
    Terminal value, discounted
    USD 46.5bn
    Enterprise value
    USD 52.4bn
    Less net debt
    USD 22.3bn
    Equity value
    USD 30.1bn

    Spread between methods: 115%.

    Sensitivity

    Value per share (USD) by discount rate and long-run growth.

    Long-run growth
    Discount rate1.50%2.00%2.50%3.00%3.50%
    4.64%96.73102.22111.26127.09158.60
    5.64%51.9050.5449.3848.5448.25
    6.64%28.6026.9325.2723.6121.95
    7.64%12.6811.319.958.587.22
    8.64%0.62-0.52-1.66-2.81-3.95

    Outlined: this model. Green text: above today's price of 116.90. Shading: distance from this model's own value.

    Priced In

    What each input would have to be to justify the current price, one at a time.

    InputActualModelImplied
    Revenue growth, a year0.7%4.0%11.8%
    EBIT margin25.2%23.2%40.6%
    Discount rate-6.6%4.6%
    Download as Excel

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    Yahoo Finance and RBA data. General information, not advice. Methodology.