DCF Studio

    WELL · NYQ · Real Estate

    Welltower Inc.

    Also onShortfallConsensus DriftCrosscheck

    Implied value per share

    USD 27.44

    Market price

    USD 239.00

    Implied upside

    -88.5%

    10-year forecast · Perpetuity growth terminal value · Mid-year discounting · Base case · Price 2026-11-02 · Accounts to 2025-12-31

    AdjustedReported capital expenditure averages just 0.59% of revenue, which is too low to be the company's real investment - property trusts and similar structures invest through lines that are not reported as capex. Capex has been set to 21.16% of revenue so the forecast is not handed free growth. Override it if the reported figure is right.

    Current EV/EBITDA of 76.9x sits outside a defensible 3-20x band, so the exit multiple is capped at 20.0x. A multiple that far out usually means EBITDA is the wrong denominator for this business.

    Value Per Share

    Perpetuity growth
    USD 27.44-88.5%
    Exit multiple
    USD 145.32-39.2%
    Market price
    USD 239.00

    Same forecast, different terminal treatment. Percentages vs price.

    Forecast Cashflows

    Reporting currency (USD). Outflows negative.

    0bn1bn3bnFY26FY27FY28FY29FY30FY31FY32FY33FY34FY35
    Nominal FCFFDiscounted to todayUSD
    LineFY26FY27FY28FY29FY30FY31FY32FY33FY34FY35CAGR
    RevenueUSD 14.5bnUSD 17.0bnUSD 19.5bnUSD 22.1bnUSD 24.7bnUSD 27.0bnUSD 29.2bnUSD 31.0bnUSD 32.3bnUSD 33.1bn+9.6%
    EBITUSD 1.6bnUSD 1.9bnUSD 2.2bnUSD 2.5bnUSD 2.8bnUSD 3.1bnUSD 3.3bnUSD 3.5bnUSD 3.7bnUSD 3.8bn+9.6%
    NOPATUSD 1.6bnUSD 1.9bnUSD 2.2bnUSD 2.5bnUSD 2.7bnUSD 3.0bnUSD 3.2bnUSD 3.4bnUSD 3.6bnUSD 3.7bn+9.6%
    Add depreciation & amortisationUSD 3.1bnUSD 3.7bnUSD 4.2bnUSD 4.8bnUSD 5.4bnUSD 5.9bnUSD 6.3bnUSD 6.7bnUSD 7.0bnUSD 7.2bn+9.6%
    Less capital expenditureUSD -3.1bnUSD -3.7bnUSD -4.3bnUSD -4.9bnUSD -5.6bnUSD -6.3bnUSD -6.9bnUSD -7.4bnUSD -7.8bnUSD -8.2bn+11.5%
    Capex, % of revenue21.2%21.5%21.9%22.3%22.7%23.1%23.5%23.9%24.3%24.7%-
    Less increase in working capitalUSD -772.2mUSD -494.3mUSD -516.4mUSD -523.6mUSD -512.9mUSD -482.4mUSD -431.0mUSD -359.1mUSD -268.5mUSD -162.8m-15.9%
    Free cashflow to firmUSD 922.2mUSD 1.4bnUSD 1.6bnUSD 1.8bnUSD 2.0bnUSD 2.2bnUSD 2.3bnUSD 2.4bnUSD 2.5bnUSD 2.5bn+11.9%
    Discount factor0.96080.88690.81870.75580.69760.64400.59450.54880.50660.4676-
    Present valueUSD 886.0mUSD 1.3bnUSD 1.3bnUSD 1.4bnUSD 1.4bnUSD 1.4bnUSD 1.4bnUSD 1.3bnUSD 1.3bnUSD 1.2bn-
    Present Value Of The ForecastUSD 12.7bn

    Discount Rate

    Source shown per component. All overridable above.

    Risk-free rate4.89%US 10-year Treasury (^TNX), 2026-11-02
    Equity risk premium4.23%Damodaran, January 2026
    Beta0.857Reported 0.787, pulled toward 1.0 (Blume)
    Cost of equity8.52%Risk-free + beta x equity risk premium
    Cost of debt6.89%Risk-free + 200bp, the spread for a C rating at 0.5x interest cover, capped at 200bp because one year's cover is too noisy to charge more. Book interest / average debt was lower, at 3.4%.
    Market capitalisationUSD 175.3bn89.1% of capital
    Total debtUSD 21.4bn10.9% of capital, book value as a proxy
    Tax rate1.8%Effective, capped at statutory
    WACC8.33%E/V x Re + D/V x Rd x (1 - t)

    Terminal Value

    Perpetuity growth is intrinsic. The exit multiple defaults to the company's current EV/EBITDA, so it answers a different question - what the shares are worth if today's rating holds and EBITDA grows as forecast.

    Perpetuity growth at 2.50%

    Value per shareUSD 27.44

    64% of EV

    Forecast FCFF, final year
    USD 2.5bn
    Capex at depreciation, working capital in reinvestment
    USD 3.9bn
    Less reinvestment at g/ROIC (30.0% of NOPAT)
    USD -1.2bn
    Capitalised
    USD 2.7bn
    ROIC (WACC floor)
    8.3%
    Terminal value, undiscounted
    USD 47.6bn
    Terminal value, discounted
    USD 22.2bn
    Enterprise value
    USD 35.0bn
    Less net debt
    USD 16.3bn
    Equity value
    USD 18.6bn

    Exit at 20.0x EBITDA

    Value per shareUSD 145.32

    89% of EV

    Terminal value, undiscounted
    USD 218.9bn
    Terminal value, discounted
    USD 102.3bn
    Enterprise value
    USD 115.1bn
    Less net debt
    USD 16.3bn
    Equity value
    USD 98.7bn

    Spread between methods: 136%.

    Sensitivity

    Value per share (USD) by discount rate and long-run growth.

    Long-run growth
    Discount rate1.50%2.00%2.50%3.00%3.50%
    6.33%48.5547.5246.4945.4744.44
    7.33%37.3036.4735.6334.7933.95
    8.33%28.8328.1427.4426.7526.05
    9.33%22.2421.6521.0620.4819.89
    10.33%16.9716.4715.9715.4714.97

    Outlined: this model. Green text: above today's price of 239.00. Shading: distance from this model's own value.

    Priced In

    What each input would have to be to justify the current price, one at a time.

    InputActualModelImplied
    Revenue growth, a year22.7%12.0%34.7%
    EBIT margin14.6%11.3%56.0%
    Discount rate-8.3%2.7%
    Download as Excel

    Live formulas, not pasted numbers - edit a driver and the workbook reprices.

    Yahoo Finance and RBA data. General information, not advice. Methodology.