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    WHS.NZ · NZE · Consumer Cyclical

    The Warehouse Group Limited

    Also onConsensus Drift

    Implied value per share

    NZD 6.44

    Market price

    NZD 0.66

    Implied upside

    +882.8%

    10-year forecast · Perpetuity growth terminal value · Mid-year discounting · Base case · Price 2026-11-03 · Accounts to 2026-07-31

    AdjustedSome line items were not reported and have been derived. Each one is labelled in the workings below.
    AdjustedReported capital expenditure averages 2.18% of revenue against depreciation and amortisation of 4.82%. A business cannot depreciate more than it invests indefinitely. Capex has been set to 4.82% of revenue so the forecast is not handed free growth. The accounts do not separate depreciation from amortisation, so the combined charge is used - if a large part of it is amortisation of an acquisition, the reported capex is probably right and this substitution is not. Override it if the reported figure is right.
    NoteRisk-free rate is an assumption: NZD assumption - no free live source available for this market.

    Value Per Share

    Perpetuity growth
    NZD 6.44+882.8%
    Exit multiple
    NZD 2.00+205.0%
    Market price
    NZD 0.66

    Same forecast, different terminal treatment. Percentages vs price.

    Forecast Cashflows

    Reporting currency (NZD). Outflows negative.

    0m28m56mFY27FY28FY29FY30FY31FY32FY33FY34FY35FY36
    Nominal FCFFDiscounted to todayNZD
    LineFY27FY28FY29FY30FY31FY32FY33FY34FY35FY36CAGR
    RevenueNZD 3.1bnNZD 3.2bnNZD 3.3bnNZD 3.3bnNZD 3.4bnNZD 3.5bnNZD 3.6bnNZD 3.7bnNZD 3.8bnNZD 3.9bn+2.6%
    EBITNZD 85.6mNZD 87.9mNZD 90.3mNZD 92.7mNZD 95.1mNZD 97.6mNZD 100.1mNZD 102.7mNZD 105.3mNZD 107.9m+2.6%
    NOPATNZD 61.6mNZD 63.3mNZD 65.0mNZD 66.7mNZD 68.5mNZD 70.3mNZD 72.1mNZD 73.9mNZD 75.8mNZD 77.7m+2.6%
    Add depreciation & amortisationNZD 149.1mNZD 153.1mNZD 157.2mNZD 161.4mNZD 165.7mNZD 170.0mNZD 174.4mNZD 178.8mNZD 183.3mNZD 187.9m+2.6%
    Less capital expenditureNZD -149.1mNZD -154.5mNZD -160.1mNZD -165.8mNZD -171.6mNZD -177.6mNZD -183.8mNZD -190.1mNZD -196.5mNZD -203.1m+3.5%
    Capex, % of revenue4.8%4.9%4.9%5.0%5.0%5.0%5.1%5.1%5.2%5.2%-
    Less increase in working capitalNZD -5.3mNZD -7.1mNZD -7.3mNZD -7.4mNZD -7.5mNZD -7.6mNZD -7.7mNZD -7.9mNZD -8.0mNZD -8.1m+4.7%
    Free cashflow to firmNZD 56.3mNZD 54.8mNZD 54.9mNZD 55.0mNZD 55.0mNZD 55.0mNZD 55.0mNZD 54.8mNZD 54.6mNZD 54.4m-0.4%
    Discount factor0.97950.93970.90160.86500.82980.79620.76380.73280.70310.6745-
    Present valueNZD 55.1mNZD 51.5mNZD 49.5mNZD 47.6mNZD 45.7mNZD 43.8mNZD 42.0mNZD 40.2mNZD 38.4mNZD 36.7m-
    Present Value Of The ForecastNZD 450.5m

    Discount Rate

    Source shown per component. All overridable above.

    Risk-free rate4.50%NZD assumption - no free live source available for this market (assumption)
    Equity risk premium4.23%Damodaran, January 2026
    Beta0.499Reported 0.252, pulled toward 1.0 (Blume)
    Cost of equity6.61%Risk-free + beta x equity risk premium
    Cost of debt4.90%Risk-free + 40bp, the spread for a AAA rating at 18.8x interest cover. Book interest / average debt was lower, at 0.3%.
    Market capitalisationNZD 226.2m22.8% of capital
    Total debtNZD 764.2m77.2% of capital, book value as a proxy
    Tax rate28.0%Effective, capped at statutory
    WACC4.23%E/V x Re + D/V x Rd x (1 - t)

    Terminal Value

    Perpetuity growth is intrinsic. The exit multiple defaults to the company's current EV/EBITDA, so it answers a different question - what the shares are worth if today's rating holds and EBITDA grows as forecast.

    Perpetuity growth at 2.50%

    Value per shareNZD 6.44

    85% of EV

    Forecast FCFF, final year
    NZD 54.4m
    Capex at depreciation, working capital in reinvestment
    NZD 77.7m
    Less reinvestment at g/ROIC (19.6% of NOPAT)
    NZD -15.2m
    Capitalised
    NZD 62.5m
    ROIC (reported)
    12.8%
    Terminal value, undiscounted
    NZD 3.7bn
    Terminal value, discounted
    NZD 2.5bn
    Enterprise value
    NZD 2.9bn
    Less net debt
    NZD 722.3m
    Equity value
    NZD 2.2bn

    Exit at 4.8x EBITDA

    Value per shareNZD 2.00

    68% of EV

    Terminal value, undiscounted
    NZD 1.4bn
    Terminal value, discounted
    NZD 961.8m
    Enterprise value
    NZD 1.4bn
    Less net debt
    NZD 722.3m
    Equity value
    NZD 689.9m

    Spread between methods: 105%.

    Sensitivity

    Value per share (NZD) by discount rate and long-run growth.

    Long-run growth
    Discount rate1.50%2.00%2.50%3.00%3.50%
    2.23%21.7467.06———
    3.23%7.9410.9218.0155.77—
    4.23%4.255.096.448.8914.73
    5.23%2.542.883.344.025.11
    6.23%1.561.711.902.172.53

    Outlined: this model. Green text: above today's price of 0.66. Shading: distance from this model's own value.

    Priced In

    What each input would have to be to justify the current price, one at a time.

    InputActualModelImplied
    Revenue growth, a year-2.8%2.6%-11.3%
    EBIT margin4.6%2.8%0.9%
    Discount rate-4.2%8.0%
    Download as Excel

    Live formulas, not pasted numbers - edit a driver and the workbook reprices.

    Yahoo Finance and RBA data. General information, not advice. Methodology.