DCF Studio

    WSM · NYQ · Consumer Cyclical

    Williams-Sonoma, Inc.

    Also onShortfallConsensus DriftCrosscheck

    Implied value per share

    USD 126.36

    Market price

    USD 259.45

    Implied upside

    -51.3%

    10-year forecast · Perpetuity growth terminal value · Mid-year discounting · Base case · Price 2026-11-02 · Accounts to 2026-01-31

    Value Per Share

    Perpetuity growth
    USD 126.36-51.3%
    Exit multiple
    USD 204.47-21.2%
    Market price
    USD 259.45

    Same forecast, different terminal treatment. Percentages vs price.

    Forecast Cashflows

    Reporting currency (USD). Outflows negative.

    0bn1bn2bnFY27FY28FY29FY30FY31FY32FY33FY34FY35FY36
    Nominal FCFFDiscounted to todayUSD
    LineFY27FY28FY29FY30FY31FY32FY33FY34FY35FY36CAGR
    RevenueUSD 8.3bnUSD 8.7bnUSD 9.1bnUSD 9.5bnUSD 9.9bnUSD 10.3bnUSD 10.7bnUSD 11.0bnUSD 11.4bnUSD 11.6bn+3.9%
    EBITUSD 1.4bnUSD 1.5bnUSD 1.6bnUSD 1.7bnUSD 1.7bnUSD 1.8bnUSD 1.9bnUSD 1.9bnUSD 2.0bnUSD 2.0bn+3.9%
    NOPATUSD 1.1bnUSD 1.2bnUSD 1.3bnUSD 1.3bnUSD 1.4bnUSD 1.4bnUSD 1.5bnUSD 1.5bnUSD 1.6bnUSD 1.6bn+3.9%
    Add depreciation & amortisationUSD 236.0mUSD 248.4mUSD 260.6mUSD 272.4mUSD 283.9mUSD 294.9mUSD 305.3mUSD 315.0mUSD 324.0mUSD 332.1m+3.9%
    Less capital expenditureUSD -262.8mUSD -279.7mUSD -296.7mUSD -313.7mUSD -330.5mUSD -347.1mUSD -363.2mUSD -378.7mUSD -393.6mUSD -407.7m+5.0%
    Capex, % of revenue3.2%3.2%3.2%3.3%3.3%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.5%3.5%-
    Less increase in working capitalUSD -52.5mUSD -49.0mUSD -48.2mUSD -47.1mUSD -45.5mUSD -43.6mUSD -41.2mUSD -38.5mUSD -35.5mUSD -32.1m-5.3%
    Free cashflow to firmUSD 1.1bnUSD 1.1bnUSD 1.2bnUSD 1.2bnUSD 1.3bnUSD 1.3bnUSD 1.4bnUSD 1.4bnUSD 1.5bnUSD 1.5bn+3.9%
    Discount factor0.95220.86350.78300.71000.64380.58370.52930.48000.43520.3946-
    Present valueUSD 1.0bnUSD 969.8mUSD 922.3mUSD 874.4mUSD 826.2mUSD 778.2mUSD 730.5mUSD 683.5mUSD 637.4mUSD 592.5m-
    Present Value Of The ForecastUSD 8.0bn

    Discount Rate

    Source shown per component. All overridable above.

    Risk-free rate4.89%US 10-year Treasury (^TNX), 2026-11-02
    Equity risk premium4.23%Damodaran, January 2026
    Beta1.328Reported 1.490, pulled toward 1.0 (Blume)
    Cost of equity10.51%Risk-free + beta x equity risk premium
    Cost of debt6.89%Assumed: risk-free + 200bp (interest expense not reported)
    Market capitalisationUSD 30.6bn95.4% of capital
    Total debtUSD 1.5bn4.6% of capital, book value as a proxy
    Tax rate21.0%Effective, capped at statutory
    WACC10.28%E/V x Re + D/V x Rd x (1 - t)

    Terminal Value

    Perpetuity growth is intrinsic. The exit multiple defaults to the company's current EV/EBITDA, so it answers a different question - what the shares are worth if today's rating holds and EBITDA grows as forecast.

    Perpetuity growth at 2.50%

    Value per shareUSD 126.36

    50% of EV

    Forecast FCFF, final year
    USD 1.5bn
    Capex at depreciation, working capital in reinvestment
    USD 1.6bn
    Less reinvestment at g/ROIC (4.7% of NOPAT)
    USD -75.6m
    Capitalised
    USD 1.5bn
    ROIC (reported)
    53.2%
    Terminal value, undiscounted
    USD 20.2bn
    Terminal value, discounted
    USD 8.0bn
    Enterprise value
    USD 16.0bn
    Less net debt
    USD 437.1m
    Equity value
    USD 15.6bn

    Exit at 18.8x EBITDA

    Value per shareUSD 204.47

    69% of EV

    Terminal value, undiscounted
    USD 44.6bn
    Terminal value, discounted
    USD 17.6bn
    Enterprise value
    USD 25.6bn
    Less net debt
    USD 437.1m
    Equity value
    USD 25.2bn

    Spread between methods: 47%.

    Sensitivity

    Value per share (USD) by discount rate and long-run growth.

    Long-run growth
    Discount rate1.50%2.00%2.50%3.00%3.50%
    8.28%157.24163.55171.00179.91190.74
    9.28%136.28140.50145.38151.07157.79
    10.28%120.14123.05126.36130.16134.56
    11.28%107.33109.38111.70114.32117.30
    12.28%96.9298.40100.04101.89103.97

    Outlined: this model. Green text: above today's price of 259.45. Shading: distance from this model's own value.

    Priced In

    What each input would have to be to justify the current price, one at a time.

    InputActualModelImplied
    Revenue growth, a year-3.5%4.1%13.3%
    EBIT margin18.5%17.5%35.0%
    Discount rate-10.3%6.3%
    Download as Excel

    Live formulas, not pasted numbers - edit a driver and the workbook reprices.

    Yahoo Finance and RBA data. General information, not advice. Methodology.