DCF Studio

    WY · NYQ · Real Estate

    Weyerhaeuser Company

    Also onShortfallConsensus DriftCrosscheck

    Implied value per share

    USD 12.80

    Market price

    USD 21.29

    Implied upside

    -39.9%

    10-year forecast · Perpetuity growth terminal value · Mid-year discounting · Base case · Price 2026-11-02 · Accounts to 2025-12-31

    AdjustedCapital expenditure runs at 9.1% of revenue against depreciation of 6.4%. A perpetuity has to be a steady state, so the forecast tapers capex to maintenance at depreciation plus the reinvestment terminal growth requires (g/ROIC of NOPAT), and the terminal year carries on from there. The bridge is shown under Terminal Value.

    Current EV/EBITDA of 21.4x sits outside a defensible 3-20x band, so the exit multiple is capped at 20.0x. A multiple that far out usually means EBITDA is the wrong denominator for this business.

    Value Per Share

    Perpetuity growth
    USD 12.80-39.9%
    Exit multiple
    USD 30.61+43.8%
    Market price
    USD 21.29

    Same forecast, different terminal treatment. Percentages vs price.

    Forecast Cashflows

    Reporting currency (USD). Outflows negative.

    0m486m971mFY26FY27FY28FY29FY30FY31FY32FY33FY34FY35
    Nominal FCFFDiscounted to todayUSD
    LineFY26FY27FY28FY29FY30FY31FY32FY33FY34FY35CAGR
    RevenueUSD 7.2bnUSD 7.6bnUSD 8.0bnUSD 8.4bnUSD 8.8bnUSD 9.1bnUSD 9.5bnUSD 9.8bnUSD 10.1bnUSD 10.3bn+4.1%
    EBITUSD 1.1bnUSD 1.2bnUSD 1.2bnUSD 1.3bnUSD 1.4bnUSD 1.4bnUSD 1.5bnUSD 1.5bnUSD 1.6bnUSD 1.6bn+4.1%
    NOPATUSD 995.7mUSD 1.1bnUSD 1.1bnUSD 1.2bnUSD 1.2bnUSD 1.3bnUSD 1.3bnUSD 1.4bnUSD 1.4bnUSD 1.4bn+4.1%
    Add depreciation & amortisationUSD 461.7mUSD 487.8mUSD 513.5mUSD 538.5mUSD 562.6mUSD 585.5mUSD 607.1mUSD 627.1mUSD 645.2mUSD 661.4m+4.1%
    Less capital expenditureUSD -656.7mUSD -706.4mUSD -756.9mUSD -807.6mUSD -858.3mUSD -908.4mUSD -957.6mUSD -1.0bnUSD -1.1bnUSD -1.1bn+5.8%
    Capex, % of revenue9.1%9.3%9.5%9.6%9.8%9.9%10.1%10.3%10.4%10.6%-
    Less increase in working capitalUSD -25.5mUSD -35.0mUSD -34.4mUSD -33.5mUSD -32.3mUSD -30.8mUSD -28.9mUSD -26.8mUSD -24.3mUSD -21.6m-1.8%
    Free cashflow to firmUSD 775.2mUSD 798.4mUSD 829.6mUSD 858.6mUSD 885.2mUSD 909.0mUSD 929.8mUSD 947.3mUSD 961.2mUSD 971.5m+2.5%
    Discount factor0.96120.88810.82050.75810.70050.64720.59790.55250.51040.4716-
    Present valueUSD 745.2mUSD 709.0mUSD 680.7mUSD 650.9mUSD 620.0mUSD 588.3mUSD 556.0mUSD 523.3mUSD 490.6mUSD 458.2m-
    Present Value Of The ForecastUSD 6.0bn

    Discount Rate

    Source shown per component. All overridable above.

    Risk-free rate4.89%US 10-year Treasury (^TNX), 2026-11-02
    Equity risk premium4.23%Damodaran, January 2026
    Beta0.967Reported 0.951, pulled toward 1.0 (Blume)
    Cost of equity8.99%Risk-free + beta x equity risk premium
    Cost of debt6.89%Risk-free + 200bp, the spread for a B rating at 1.6x interest cover, capped at 200bp because one year's cover is too noisy to charge more. Book interest / average debt was lower, at 5.1%.
    Market capitalisationUSD 15.3bn73.3% of capital
    Total debtUSD 5.6bn26.7% of capital, book value as a proxy
    Tax rate10.5%Effective, capped at statutory
    WACC8.23%E/V x Re + D/V x Rd x (1 - t)

    Terminal Value

    Perpetuity growth is intrinsic. The exit multiple defaults to the company's current EV/EBITDA, so it answers a different question - what the shares are worth if today's rating holds and EBITDA grows as forecast.

    Perpetuity growth at 2.50%

    Value per shareUSD 12.80

    58% of EV

    Forecast FCFF, final year
    USD 971.5m
    Capex at depreciation, working capital in reinvestment
    USD 1.4bn
    Less reinvestment at g/ROIC (30.4% of NOPAT)
    USD -433.1m
    Capitalised
    USD 993.1m
    ROIC (WACC floor)
    8.2%
    Terminal value, undiscounted
    USD 17.8bn
    Terminal value, discounted
    USD 8.4bn
    Enterprise value
    USD 14.4bn
    Less net debt
    USD 5.1bn
    Equity value
    USD 9.3bn

    Exit at 20.0x EBITDA

    Value per shareUSD 30.61

    78% of EV

    Terminal value, undiscounted
    USD 45.1bn
    Terminal value, discounted
    USD 21.3bn
    Enterprise value
    USD 27.3bn
    Less net debt
    USD 5.1bn
    Equity value
    USD 22.2bn

    Spread between methods: 82%.

    Sensitivity

    Value per share (USD) by discount rate and long-run growth.

    Long-run growth
    Discount rate1.50%2.00%2.50%3.00%3.50%
    6.23%20.4320.0419.6519.2518.86
    7.23%16.3816.0615.7415.4215.10
    8.23%13.3313.0712.8012.5412.27
    9.23%10.9610.7310.5110.2910.06
    10.23%9.068.878.678.488.29

    Outlined: this model. Green text: above today's price of 21.29. Shading: distance from this model's own value.

    Priced In

    What each input would have to be to justify the current price, one at a time.

    InputActualModelImplied
    Revenue growth, a year-12.1%4.1%8.5%
    EBIT margin30.4%15.4%21.6%
    Discount rate-8.2%5.9%
    Download as Excel

    Live formulas, not pasted numbers - edit a driver and the workbook reprices.

    Yahoo Finance and RBA data. General information, not advice. Methodology.