DCF Studio

    WYNN · NMS · Consumer Cyclical

    Wynn Resorts, Limited

    Also onShortfallConsensus DriftCrosscheck

    Implied value per share

    USD 54.01

    Market price

    USD 77.67

    Implied upside

    -30.5%

    10-year forecast · Perpetuity growth terminal value · Mid-year discounting · Base case · Price 2026-11-02 · Accounts to 2025-12-31

    Value Per Share

    Perpetuity growth
    USD 54.01-30.5%
    Exit multiple
    USD 81.75+5.3%
    Market price
    USD 77.67

    Same forecast, different terminal treatment. Percentages vs price.

    Forecast Cashflows

    Reporting currency (USD). Outflows negative.

    0bn1bn1bnFY26FY27FY28FY29FY30FY31FY32FY33FY34FY35
    Nominal FCFFDiscounted to todayUSD
    LineFY26FY27FY28FY29FY30FY31FY32FY33FY34FY35CAGR
    RevenueUSD 7.4bnUSD 7.7bnUSD 7.9bnUSD 8.1bnUSD 8.4bnUSD 8.6bnUSD 8.8bnUSD 9.1bnUSD 9.3bnUSD 9.6bn+2.9%
    EBITUSD 897.7mUSD 926.5mUSD 955.5mUSD 984.5mUSD 1.0bnUSD 1.0bnUSD 1.1bnUSD 1.1bnUSD 1.1bnUSD 1.2bn+2.9%
    NOPATUSD 803.4mUSD 829.3mUSD 855.2mUSD 881.1mUSD 907.1mUSD 933.0mUSD 958.8mUSD 984.5mUSD 1.0bnUSD 1.0bn+2.9%
    Add depreciation & amortisationUSD 868.9mUSD 896.9mUSD 924.9mUSD 952.9mUSD 981.0mUSD 1.0bnUSD 1.0bnUSD 1.1bnUSD 1.1bnUSD 1.1bn+2.9%
    Less capital expenditureUSD -564.2mUSD -639.2mUSD -717.8mUSD -800.0mUSD -885.7mUSD -975.0mUSD -1.1bnUSD -1.2bnUSD -1.3bnUSD -1.4bn+10.3%
    Capex, % of revenue7.6%8.4%9.1%9.8%10.6%11.3%12.1%12.8%13.6%14.3%-
    Less increase in working capitalUSD -8.1mUSD -7.1mUSD -7.1mUSD -7.1mUSD -7.1mUSD -7.1mUSD -7.1mUSD -7.0mUSD -7.0mUSD -6.9m-1.8%
    Free cashflow to firmUSD 1.1bnUSD 1.1bnUSD 1.1bnUSD 1.0bnUSD 995.2mUSD 959.9mUSD 921.0mUSD 878.4mUSD 832.1mUSD 782.2m-3.7%
    Discount factor0.96550.90000.83890.78200.72890.67950.63330.59040.55030.5130-
    Present valueUSD 1.1bnUSD 971.8mUSD 885.2mUSD 803.1mUSD 725.4mUSD 652.2mUSD 583.3mUSD 518.6mUSD 457.9mUSD 401.2m-
    Present Value Of The ForecastUSD 7.1bn

    Discount Rate

    Source shown per component. All overridable above.

    Risk-free rate4.89%US 10-year Treasury (^TNX), 2026-11-02
    Equity risk premium4.23%Damodaran, January 2026
    Beta0.963Reported 0.945, pulled toward 1.0 (Blume)
    Cost of equity8.97%Risk-free + beta x equity risk premium
    Cost of debt6.89%Risk-free + 200bp, the spread for a B+ rating at 1.9x interest cover, capped at 200bp because one year's cover is too noisy to charge more. Book interest / average debt was lower, at 5.1%.
    Market capitalisationUSD 8.0bn39.6% of capital
    Total debtUSD 12.2bn60.4% of capital, book value as a proxy
    Tax rate10.5%Effective, capped at statutory
    WACC7.28%E/V x Re + D/V x Rd x (1 - t)

    Terminal Value

    Perpetuity growth is intrinsic. The exit multiple defaults to the company's current EV/EBITDA, so it answers a different question - what the shares are worth if today's rating holds and EBITDA grows as forecast.

    Perpetuity growth at 2.50%

    Value per shareUSD 54.01

    55% of EV

    Forecast FCFF, final year
    USD 782.2m
    Capex at depreciation, working capital in reinvestment
    USD 1.0bn
    Less reinvestment at g/ROIC (23.8% of NOPAT)
    USD -246.1m
    Capitalised
    USD 789.1m
    ROIC (reported)
    10.5%
    Terminal value, undiscounted
    USD 16.9bn
    Terminal value, discounted
    USD 8.7bn
    Enterprise value
    USD 15.7bn
    Less net debt
    USD 10.1bn
    Equity value
    USD 5.6bn

    Exit at 9.9x EBITDA

    Value per shareUSD 81.75

    62% of EV

    Terminal value, undiscounted
    USD 22.6bn
    Terminal value, discounted
    USD 11.6bn
    Enterprise value
    USD 18.6bn
    Less net debt
    USD 10.1bn
    Equity value
    USD 8.5bn

    Spread between methods: 41%.

    Sensitivity

    Value per share (USD) by discount rate and long-run growth.

    Long-run growth
    Discount rate1.50%2.00%2.50%3.00%3.50%
    5.28%119.68131.30147.55171.49209.58
    6.28%77.7482.3788.5596.97108.85
    7.28%50.1851.8154.0157.0061.07
    8.28%30.6530.8531.2631.9633.02
    9.28%16.0715.5515.0914.7314.47

    Outlined: this model. Green text: above today's price of 77.67. Shading: distance from this model's own value.

    Priced In

    What each input would have to be to justify the current price, one at a time.

    InputActualModelImplied
    Revenue growth, a year23.9%3.0%4.8%
    EBIT margin19.0%12.1%14.2%
    Discount rate-7.3%6.5%
    Download as Excel

    Live formulas, not pasted numbers - edit a driver and the workbook reprices.

    Yahoo Finance and RBA data. General information, not advice. Methodology.