DCF Studio

    XEL · NMS · Utilities

    Xcel Energy Inc.

    Also onShortfallConsensus DriftCrosscheck

    Implied value per share

    USD -34.81

    Market price

    USD 72.30

    Implied upside

    -148.1%

    5-year forecast · Perpetuity growth terminal value · Mid-year discounting · Base case

    AdjustedFree cashflow is negative in at least one forecast year, so terminal value carries most of the valuation.
    AdjustedCapital expenditure runs at 50.2% of revenue against depreciation of 19.3%. A perpetuity has to be a steady state, so the terminal year uses maintenance capex at depreciation and then charges the reinvestment terminal growth requires (g/ROIC of NOPAT). The bridge is shown under Terminal Value.

    Value Per Share

    Perpetuity growth
    USD -34.81-148.1%
    Exit multiple
    USD 12.64-82.5%
    Market price
    USD 72.30

    Same forecast, different terminal treatment. Percentages vs price.

    Forecast Cashflows

    Reporting currency (USD). Outflows negative.

    -2236030206-11180151030FY26FY27FY28FY29FY30
    Nominal FCFFDiscounted to todayUSD
    LineFY26FY27FY28FY29FY30CAGR
    RevenueUSD 14.5bnUSD 14.3bnUSD 14.1bnUSD 13.9bnUSD 13.7bn-1.4%
    EBITUSD 2.6bnUSD 2.5bnUSD 2.5bnUSD 2.5bnUSD 2.4bn-1.4%
    NOPATUSD 2.0bnUSD 2.0bnUSD 2.0bnUSD 2.0bnUSD 1.9bn-1.4%
    Add depreciation & amortisationUSD 2.8bnUSD 2.7bnUSD 2.7bnUSD 2.7bnUSD 2.6bn-1.4%
    Less capital expenditureUSD -7.3bnUSD -7.2bnUSD -7.1bnUSD -7.0bnUSD -6.9bn-1.4%
    Less increase in working capitalUSD 188.0mUSD 185.4mUSD 182.7mUSD 180.2mUSD 177.6m+1.4%
    Free cashflow to firmUSD -2.2bnUSD -2.2bnUSD -2.2bnUSD -2.1bnUSD -2.1bn+1.4%
    Discount factor0.96950.91120.85640.80490.7565-
    Present valueUSD -2.2bnUSD -2.0bnUSD -1.9bnUSD -1.7bnUSD -1.6bn+7.3%
    Present Value Of The ForecastUSD -9.4bn

    Discount Rate

    Source shown per component. All overridable above.

    Risk-free rate5.00%US 10-year Treasury (^TNX)
    Equity risk premium5.50%Market assumption
    Beta0.597Reported 0.399, pulled toward 1.0 (Blume)
    Cost of equity8.28%Risk-free + beta x equity risk premium
    Cost of debt5.00%Floored at the risk-free rate (implied cost of debt was lower)
    Market capitalisationUSD 45.2bn56.5% of capital
    Total debtUSD 34.8bn43.5% of capital, book value as a proxy
    Tax rate21.0%Effective, capped at statutory
    WACC6.40%E/V x Re + D/V x Rd x (1 - t)

    Terminal Value

    Perpetuity growth is intrinsic. The exit multiple defaults to the company's current EV/EBITDA, so it answers a different question - what the shares are worth if today's rating holds and EBITDA grows as forecast.

    Perpetuity growth at 2.50%

    Value per shareUSD -34.81

    167% of EV

    Forecast FCFF, final year
    USD -2.1bn
    Capex at depreciation, working capital in reinvestment
    USD 1.9bn
    Less reinvestment at g/ROIC (39.1% of NOPAT)
    USD -753.3m
    Capitalised
    USD 1.2bn
    ROIC (WACC floor)
    6.4%
    Terminal value, undiscounted
    USD 30.9bn
    Terminal value, discounted
    USD 23.4bn
    Enterprise value
    USD 14.0bn
    Less net debt
    USD 34.5bn
    Equity value
    USD -20.5bn

    Exit at 13.4x EBITDA

    Value per shareUSD 12.64

    122% of EV

    Terminal value, undiscounted
    USD 67.8bn
    Terminal value, discounted
    USD 51.3bn
    Enterprise value
    USD 41.9bn
    Less net debt
    USD 34.5bn
    Equity value
    USD 7.4bn

    Sensitivity

    Value per share (USD) by discount rate and long-run growth.

    Long-run growth
    Discount rate1.50%2.00%2.50%3.00%3.50%
    4.40%-12.96-12.66-12.35-12.04-11.74
    5.40%-26.25-26.01-25.77-25.53-25.29
    6.40%-35.19-35.00-34.81-34.61-34.42
    7.40%-41.56-41.40-41.24-41.08-40.92
    8.40%-46.28-46.15-46.01-45.87-45.74

    Outlined: this model. Green text: above today's price of 72.30. Shading: distance from this model's own value.

    Priced In

    What each input would have to be to justify the current price, one at a time.

    InputModelImpliedGap
    Revenue growth, every year-1.4%49.3%+50.7pp
    EBIT margin17.9%53.2%+35.3pp
    Discount rate6.4%3.3%-3.1pp
    Download as Excel

    Live formulas, not pasted numbers - edit a driver and the workbook reprices.

    Yahoo Finance and RBA data. General information, not advice. Methodology.