DCF Studio

    XOM · NYQ · Energy

    ExxonMobil Holdings Corporation

    Also onShortfallConsensus DriftCrosscheck

    Implied value per share

    USD 206.33

    Market price

    USD 179.67

    Implied upside

    +14.8%

    10-year forecast · Perpetuity growth terminal value · Mid-year discounting · Base case · Price 2026-11-02 · Accounts to 2025-12-31

    Value Per Share

    Perpetuity growth
    USD 206.33+14.8%
    Exit multiple
    USD 237.51+32.2%
    Market price
    USD 179.67

    Same forecast, different terminal treatment. Percentages vs price.

    Forecast Cashflows

    Reporting currency (USD). Outflows negative.

    0bn22bn43bnFY26FY27FY28FY29FY30FY31FY32FY33FY34FY35
    Nominal FCFFDiscounted to todayUSD
    LineFY26FY27FY28FY29FY30FY31FY32FY33FY34FY35CAGR
    RevenueUSD 429.1bnUSD 440.5bnUSD 452.2bnUSD 464.0bnUSD 476.1bnUSD 488.4bnUSD 500.9bnUSD 513.7bnUSD 526.6bnUSD 539.8bn+2.6%
    EBITUSD 55.3bnUSD 56.7bnUSD 58.2bnUSD 59.8bnUSD 61.3bnUSD 62.9bnUSD 64.5bnUSD 66.1bnUSD 67.8bnUSD 69.5bn+2.6%
    NOPATUSD 43.7bnUSD 44.8bnUSD 46.0bnUSD 47.2bnUSD 48.4bnUSD 49.7bnUSD 51.0bnUSD 52.3bnUSD 53.6bnUSD 54.9bn+2.6%
    Add depreciation & amortisationUSD 29.1bnUSD 29.9bnUSD 30.7bnUSD 31.5bnUSD 32.3bnUSD 33.1bnUSD 34.0bnUSD 34.8bnUSD 35.7bnUSD 36.6bn+2.6%
    Less capital expenditureUSD -29.1bnUSD -30.8bnUSD -32.7bnUSD -34.6bnUSD -36.6bnUSD -38.7bnUSD -40.8bnUSD -43.0bnUSD -45.3bnUSD -47.7bn+5.6%
    Capex, % of revenue6.8%7.0%7.2%7.5%7.7%7.9%8.1%8.4%8.6%8.8%-
    Less increase in working capitalUSD -7.3bnUSD -794.3mUSD -809.2mUSD -824.2mUSD -839.2mUSD -854.3mUSD -869.4mUSD -884.6mUSD -899.8mUSD -915.0m-20.6%
    Free cashflow to firmUSD 36.4bnUSD 43.1bnUSD 43.2bnUSD 43.3bnUSD 43.3bnUSD 43.3bnUSD 43.3bnUSD 43.2bnUSD 43.1bnUSD 43.0bn+1.9%
    Discount factor0.96880.90920.85340.80090.75170.70550.66210.62140.58320.5474-
    Present valueUSD 35.3bnUSD 39.2bnUSD 36.8bnUSD 34.6bnUSD 32.5bnUSD 30.6bnUSD 28.7bnUSD 26.9bnUSD 25.1bnUSD 23.5bn-
    Present Value Of The ForecastUSD 313.2bn

    Discount Rate

    Source shown per component. All overridable above.

    Risk-free rate4.89%US 10-year Treasury (^TNX), 2026-11-02
    Equity risk premium4.23%Damodaran, January 2026
    Beta0.424Reported 0.141, pulled toward 1.0 (Blume)
    Cost of equity6.69%Risk-free + beta x equity risk premium
    Cost of debt5.29%Risk-free + 40bp, the spread for a AAA rating at 56.3x interest cover. Book interest / average debt was lower, at 1.4%.
    Market capitalisationUSD 732.9bn94.4% of capital
    Total debtUSD 43.5bn5.6% of capital, book value as a proxy
    Tax rate21.0%Effective, capped at statutory
    WACC6.55%E/V x Re + D/V x Rd x (1 - t)

    Terminal Value

    Perpetuity growth is intrinsic. The exit multiple defaults to the company's current EV/EBITDA, so it answers a different question - what the shares are worth if today's rating holds and EBITDA grows as forecast.

    Perpetuity growth at 2.50%

    Value per shareUSD 206.33

    66% of EV

    Forecast FCFF, final year
    USD 43.0bn
    Capex at depreciation, working capital in reinvestment
    USD 54.9bn
    Less reinvestment at g/ROIC (20.1% of NOPAT)
    USD -11.0bn
    Capitalised
    USD 43.9bn
    ROIC (reported)
    12.4%
    Terminal value, undiscounted
    USD 1110.7bn
    Terminal value, discounted
    USD 607.9bn
    Enterprise value
    USD 921.1bn
    Less net debt
    USD 32.9bn
    Equity value
    USD 888.3bn

    Exit at 12.8x EBITDA

    Value per shareUSD 237.51

    70% of EV

    Terminal value, undiscounted
    USD 1355.9bn
    Terminal value, discounted
    USD 742.2bn
    Enterprise value
    USD 1055.3bn
    Less net debt
    USD 32.9bn
    Equity value
    USD 1022.5bn

    Spread between methods: 14%.

    Sensitivity

    Value per share (USD) by discount rate and long-run growth.

    Long-run growth
    Discount rate1.50%2.00%2.50%3.00%3.50%
    4.55%320.05354.27405.90491.79660.93
    5.55%240.00254.18273.45300.81342.19
    6.55%191.66198.05206.33217.30232.30
    7.55%159.31162.12165.73170.40176.52
    8.55%136.14137.14138.50140.32142.71

    Outlined: this model. Green text: above today's price of 179.67. Shading: distance from this model's own value.

    Priced In

    What each input would have to be to justify the current price, one at a time.

    InputActualModelImplied
    Revenue growth, a year-6.7%5.2%3.6%
    EBIT margin16.1%12.9%11.3%
    Discount rate-6.5%7.2%
    Download as Excel

    Live formulas, not pasted numbers - edit a driver and the workbook reprices.

    Yahoo Finance and RBA data. General information, not advice. Methodology.