DCF Studio

    Y92.SI · SES · Consumer Defensive

    Thai Beverage Public Company Limited

    Also onConsensus Drift

    Implied value per share

    SGD 4.59

    Market price

    SGD 0.44

    Implied upside

    +943.9%

    5-year forecast · Perpetuity growth terminal value · Mid-year discounting · Base case · THB model at 0.0381

    Wrong toolThis line has no market capitalisation, which means it is not ordinary shares - typically a hybrid, preference line, note or unlisted stub. A discounted cashflow values a claim on the whole business, so applying it here attributes all of the group’s revenue to a security that has no such claim. Its value is its coupon and call schedule. Look up the ordinary line instead.
    Wrong toolThis model values the shares at 10.4x the market price. A gap that size is a modelling failure rather than a view - most often an unusable beta, a currency or units mismatch, or a cashflow base that does not represent the business. Read the figures below as diagnostics, not as a call.
    AdjustedReports in THB, trades in SGD. Modelled in THB, converted at the end.
    NoteRisk-free rate is an assumption: USD assumption - no free live source available for this market.

    No usable EV/EBITDA (EBITDA is not positive), so the exit multiple falls back to 8x.

    Value Per Share

    Perpetuity growth
    SGD 4.59+943.9%
    Exit multiple
    SGD 0.74+68.0%
    Market price
    SGD 0.44

    Same forecast, different terminal treatment. Percentages vs price.

    Forecast Cashflows

    Reporting currency (THB). Outflows negative.

    0bn22bn44bnFY26FY27FY28FY29FY30
    Nominal FCFFDiscounted to todayTHB
    LineFY26FY27FY28FY29FY30CAGR
    RevenueTHB 356.5bnTHB 381.3bnTHB 407.8bnTHB 436.2bnTHB 466.6bn+7.0%
    EBITTHB 45.3bnTHB 48.5bnTHB 51.8bnTHB 55.5bnTHB 59.3bn+7.0%
    NOPATTHB 37.8bnTHB 40.5bnTHB 43.3bnTHB 46.3bnTHB 49.5bn+7.0%
    Add depreciation & amortisationTHB 10.7bnTHB 11.4bnTHB 12.2bnTHB 13.0bnTHB 14.0bn+7.0%
    Less capital expenditureTHB -9.7bnTHB -10.4bnTHB -11.1bnTHB -11.9bnTHB -12.7bn+7.0%
    Less increase in working capitalTHB -4.9bnTHB -5.3bnTHB -5.6bnTHB -6.0bnTHB -6.4bn+7.0%
    Free cashflow to firmTHB 33.9bnTHB 36.2bnTHB 38.7bnTHB 41.4bnTHB 44.3bn+7.0%
    Discount factor0.98290.94960.91740.88630.8563-
    Present valueTHB 33.3bnTHB 34.4bnTHB 35.5bnTHB 36.7bnTHB 38.0bn+3.3%
    Present Value Of The ForecastTHB 177.9bn

    Discount Rate

    Source shown per component. All overridable above.

    Risk-free rate4.20%USD assumption - no free live source available for this market (assumption)
    Equity risk premium6.50%Market assumption
    Beta0.637Reported 0.458, pulled toward 1.0 (Blume)
    Cost of equity8.34%Risk-free + beta x equity risk premium
    Cost of debt4.20%Floored at the risk-free rate (implied cost of debt was lower)
    Market capitalisationTHB 0.000.0% of capital
    Total debtTHB 235.5bn100.0% of capital, book value as a proxy
    Tax rate16.5%Effective, capped at statutory
    WACC3.51%E/V x Re + D/V x Rd x (1 - t)

    Terminal Value

    Perpetuity growth is intrinsic. The exit multiple defaults to the company's current EV/EBITDA, so it answers a different question - what the shares are worth if today's rating holds and EBITDA grows as forecast.

    Perpetuity growth at 2.50%

    Value per shareTHB 120.72

    94% of EV

    Forecast FCFF, final year
    THB 44.3bn
    Capex at depreciation, working capital in reinvestment
    THB 49.5bn
    Less reinvestment at g/ROIC (29.4% of NOPAT)
    THB -14.6bn
    Capitalised
    THB 35.0bn
    ROIC (reported)
    8.5%
    Terminal value, undiscounted
    THB 3558.7bn
    Terminal value, discounted
    THB 3047.4bn
    Enterprise value
    THB 3225.2bn
    Less net debt
    THB 191.5bn
    Equity value
    THB 3033.7bn

    Exit at 8.0x EBITDA

    Value per shareTHB 19.43

    74% of EV

    Terminal value, undiscounted
    THB 586.2bn
    Terminal value, discounted
    THB 502.0bn
    Enterprise value
    THB 679.9bn
    Less net debt
    THB 191.5bn
    Equity value
    THB 488.3bn

    Spread between methods: 145%.

    Sensitivity

    Value per share (THB) by discount rate and long-run growth.

    Long-run growth
    Discount rate1.50%2.00%2.50%3.00%3.50%
    1.51%21393.97————
    2.51%145.97270.8117719.88——
    3.51%69.7586.81120.72221.2714274.05
    4.51%44.2249.5757.5670.7797.01
    5.51%31.4233.5636.3840.2946.10

    Outlined: this model. Green text: above today's price of 11.56. Shading: distance from this model's own value.

    Priced In

    What each input would have to be to justify the current price, one at a time.

    InputModelImpliedGap
    Revenue growth, every year7.0%-30.2%-37.2pp
    EBIT margin12.7%2.0%-10.7pp
    Discount rate3.5%10.0%+6.5pp
    Download as Excel

    Live formulas, not pasted numbers - edit a driver and the workbook reprices.

    Yahoo Finance and RBA data. General information, not advice. Methodology.