DCF Studio

    ZBRA · NMS · Technology

    Zebra Technologies Corporation

    Also onShortfallConsensus DriftCrosscheck

    Implied value per share

    USD 174.85

    Market price

    USD 361.13

    Implied upside

    -51.6%

    10-year forecast · Perpetuity growth terminal value · Mid-year discounting · Base case · Price 2026-11-02 · Accounts to 2025-12-31

    Value Per Share

    Perpetuity growth
    USD 174.85-51.6%
    Exit multiple
    USD 330.44-8.5%
    Market price
    USD 361.13

    Same forecast, different terminal treatment. Percentages vs price.

    Forecast Cashflows

    Reporting currency (USD). Outflows negative.

    0bn1bn1bnFY26FY27FY28FY29FY30FY31FY32FY33FY34FY35
    Nominal FCFFDiscounted to todayUSD
    LineFY26FY27FY28FY29FY30FY31FY32FY33FY34FY35CAGR
    RevenueUSD 6.2bnUSD 6.6bnUSD 7.0bnUSD 7.4bnUSD 7.7bnUSD 8.1bnUSD 8.4bnUSD 8.7bnUSD 8.9bnUSD 9.2bn+4.4%
    EBITUSD 920.6mUSD 978.7mUSD 1.0bnUSD 1.1bnUSD 1.1bnUSD 1.2bnUSD 1.2bnUSD 1.3bnUSD 1.3bnUSD 1.4bn+4.4%
    NOPATUSD 774.5mUSD 823.4mUSD 871.4mUSD 918.1mUSD 963.0mUSD 1.0bnUSD 1.0bnUSD 1.1bnUSD 1.1bnUSD 1.1bn+4.4%
    Add depreciation & amortisationUSD 221.8mUSD 235.8mUSD 249.6mUSD 263.0mUSD 275.8mUSD 288.0mUSD 299.3mUSD 309.6mUSD 318.8mUSD 326.8m+4.4%
    Less capital expenditureUSD -93.0mUSD -121.5mUSD -152.6mUSD -186.0mUSD -221.5mUSD -259.0mUSD -297.9mUSD -337.9mUSD -378.6mUSD -419.4m+18.2%
    Capex, % of revenue1.5%1.8%2.2%2.5%2.9%3.2%3.5%3.9%4.2%4.6%-
    Less increase in working capitalUSD -127.0mUSD -60.1mUSD -59.1mUSD -57.4mUSD -55.1mUSD -52.2mUSD -48.6mUSD -44.3mUSD -39.5mUSD -34.2m-13.6%
    Free cashflow to firmUSD 776.3mUSD 877.6mUSD 909.4mUSD 937.7mUSD 962.1mUSD 982.3mUSD 997.8mUSD 1.0bnUSD 1.0bnUSD 1.0bn+3.0%
    Discount factor0.95320.86610.78700.71510.64980.59040.53650.48750.44290.4025-
    Present valueUSD 740.0mUSD 760.1mUSD 715.7mUSD 670.6mUSD 625.2mUSD 580.0mUSD 535.3mUSD 491.6mUSD 449.1mUSD 408.2m-
    Present Value Of The ForecastUSD 6.0bn

    Discount Rate

    Source shown per component. All overridable above.

    Risk-free rate4.89%US 10-year Treasury (^TNX), 2026-11-02
    Equity risk premium4.23%Damodaran, January 2026
    Beta1.424Reported 1.633, pulled toward 1.0 (Blume)
    Cost of equity10.92%Risk-free + beta x equity risk premium
    Cost of debt5.44%Risk-free + 55bp, the spread for a AA rating at 7.4x interest cover. Book interest / average debt was lower, at 4.3%.
    Market capitalisationUSD 17.1bn86.4% of capital
    Total debtUSD 2.7bn13.6% of capital, book value as a proxy
    Tax rate15.9%Effective, capped at statutory
    WACC10.05%E/V x Re + D/V x Rd x (1 - t)

    Terminal Value

    Perpetuity growth is intrinsic. The exit multiple defaults to the company's current EV/EBITDA, so it answers a different question - what the shares are worth if today's rating holds and EBITDA grows as forecast.

    Perpetuity growth at 2.50%

    Value per shareUSD 174.85

    48% of EV

    Forecast FCFF, final year
    USD 1.0bn
    Capex at depreciation, working capital in reinvestment
    USD 1.3bn
    Less reinvestment at g/ROIC (22.5% of NOPAT)
    USD -294.9m
    Capitalised
    USD 1.0bn
    ROIC (reported)
    11.1%
    Terminal value, undiscounted
    USD 13.8bn
    Terminal value, discounted
    USD 5.6bn
    Enterprise value
    USD 11.5bn
    Less net debt
    USD 2.6bn
    Equity value
    USD 9.0bn

    Exit at 20.0x EBITDA

    Value per shareUSD 330.44

    69% of EV

    Terminal value, undiscounted
    USD 33.6bn
    Terminal value, discounted
    USD 13.5bn
    Enterprise value
    USD 19.5bn
    Less net debt
    USD 2.6bn
    Equity value
    USD 16.9bn

    Spread between methods: 62%.

    Sensitivity

    Value per share (USD) by discount rate and long-run growth.

    Long-run growth
    Discount rate1.50%2.00%2.50%3.00%3.50%
    8.05%247.10249.13251.99255.92261.29
    9.05%207.83207.53207.56208.00208.95
    10.05%177.77176.26174.85173.56172.43
    11.05%154.03151.88149.74147.60145.47
    12.05%136.26134.35132.45130.54128.63

    Outlined: this model. Green text: above today's price of 361.13. Shading: distance from this model's own value.

    Priced In

    What each input would have to be to justify the current price, one at a time.

    InputActualModelImplied
    Revenue growth, a year-2.3%5.5%13.7%
    EBIT margin16.2%14.8%28.5%
    Discount rate-10.1%6.5%
    Download as Excel

    Live formulas, not pasted numbers - edit a driver and the workbook reprices.

    Yahoo Finance and RBA data. General information, not advice. Methodology.